2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[vgrinshpun]

also... the jan monthlies are always screwed up... these are a target for long term options traders and much of the OI was bought a year in advance with huge premiums... so, i've not seen max pain be effective on this particular week in the past... think about last year with TSLA... I believe it was in the $230s and TSLA was tanking under 180.

Given huge turnaround in TSLA sentiment as compared to the times you see fit mentioned in your post, I would gladly accept your premise of Maximum Pain being screwed up indicator, or, rather, as you suggested, a contrarian indicator.

Let's see, with the sentiment in the basement SP was $50 below Max Pain, so with the sentiment reversal we could expect $280 by the EOD?

 

[mrdoubleb]

There was a lot of discussions about what Market might perceive as a successful launch as far as how many Model 3 cars will be delivered in 2017. If one assumes that Market sentiment will be in line with MS note, the "soft launch" in Q4 discussed in the note, which to me seems to indicate NO volume deliveries in 2017, should still drive SP to $305 by Q4.

Good point. The question is "what is priced in already?". Elon`s 100-200k M3 production for 2017 or analysts` 0k (ok so, maybe Model X 2015-like) production numbers?

If Elon`s, 50k actual deliveries would be seen as a miss. If analysts` 50k deliveries would put TSLA on a Falcon 9. The thing is we may not need to wait until Q4 to find out though. Everyone will be watching the 2017 targets laid down in the Q4 ER.

 

[myusername]

Given huge turnaround in TSLA sentiment as compared to the times you see fit mentioned in your post, I would gladly accept your premise of Maximum Pain being screwed up indicator, or, rather, as you suggested, a contrarian indicator.

Let's see, with the sentiment in the basement SP was $50 below Max Pain, so with the sentiment reversal we could expect $280 by the EOD?

yes... I do not think max pain will be useful this week... i think it's not even worth looking at... then I've stated clearly many times that my sentiment on the short term movement of the stock is long while my sentiment on the company remains.

Look at what just happened AGAIN... you can say it was Adam Jonas... you can say it's positive sentiment on M3... or whatever "news" event in the past... but I called $245-$250 with a resistance range of $248-$252 for Friday... and when I say Friday I meant Friday morning... because these jumps always happen in the morning... but here we are again in a completely predictable pattern where some schmo on a message board was able to predict a nearly 4% move within one trading day.

the stock is completely disconnected from anything related to Tesla.

 

[T3slaTulips]

Anyone think we'll be down to two physical battery pack options for S/X soon? [75kWh physical, 100kWh physical] (60kWh software)

 

[theschnell]

Anyone think we'll be down to two physical battery pack options for S/X soon? [75kWh physical, 100kWh physical] (60kWh software)

No doubt about it.

 

[Bangor Bob]

Anyone think we'll be down to two physical battery pack options for S/X soon? [75kWh physical, 100kWh physical] (60kWh software)

Three packs for a bit, then two, then three again as the 75kWh pack gets the new (presumably less costly) architecture, possibly with capacity bump. Then two again once the old 75kWh pack gets retired.

Wildcard: Announcement of 200kWh Semi-Truck pack module with 2 layers of cells, 1 heatpipe in between. 4-8 modules per truck. Single module used eventually for pickup truck.

 

[Drax7]

Bears are going to do it regardless. That's a given. Prepare accordingly.

That's not the point, cause bulls will too.
To know and not to act is not to know.

 

[T3slaTulips]

Three packs for a bit, then two, then three again as the 75kWh pack gets the new (presumably less costly) architecture, possibly with capacity bump. Then two again once the old 75kWh pack gets retired.

Interesting. My guess was we wouldn't see a repackaged 75 until it gets switched to an 80-ish with 21-70's in it, and an updated 100+ pack with 21-70's as well.

 

[EinSV]

Good point. The question is "what is priced in already?". Elon`s 100-200k M3 production for 2017 or analysts` 0k (ok so, maybe Model X 2015-like) production numbers?

If Elon`s, 50k actual deliveries would be seen as a miss. If analysts` 50k deliveries would put TSLA on a Falcon 9. The thing is we may not need to wait until Q4 to find out though. Everyone will be watching the 2017 targets laid down in the Q4 ER.

It seems pretty clear that the market does not believe Tesla will come anywhere close to meeting its Model 3 or overall vehicle production targets for 2017, 2018 or 2020.

I think on this point the analysts' generally pessimistic projections are probably a decent reflection of the market's expectations. When you plug Tesla's projections into Goldman, MS's or similar models the share price projections are pretty staggering, even ignoring the contribution from TE and Tesla Solar, as Jonas did.

 

[SBenson]

We had a lot of concerns expressed lately about the lack of visibility of Model 3 production capabilities build-up. As a follow up to this there seem to be little interest expressed here to the details of the AJ note on expectation of timely soft start of Model 3 deliveries by the end of this year. There are two things worth noting here:

1. The change of prediction on the timing of Model 3 soft launch, according to the note, is a result of the GF visit and discussions with the suppliers : Morgan Stanley stopped short of predicting that Tesla will achieve its 2018 goals, but said it now expects production of 183,000 vehicles by that year, up from predictions of 114,000 vehicles. "We take this view following recent discussions with company management and suppliers following the Gigafactory visit," the analysts said. (via Marketwatch)
2. There was a lot of discussions about what Market might perceive as a successful launch as far as how many Model 3 cars will be delivered in 2017. If one assumes that Market sentiment will be in line with MS note, the "soft launch" in Q4 discussed in the note, which to me seems to indicate NO volume deliveries in 2017, should still drive SP to $305 by Q4.

I am trying to get a copy of the report so I can do some informed commentary. Obviously the overall update is positive. However I want to get a clearer perspective on what he means by "soft launch" and what he expects in say Q1 18, Q2 18 and so forth.

 

[Krugerrand]

That's not the point, cause bulls will too.
To know and not to act is not to know.

Then what was your point?

Here's what you wrote: I am also thinking about scenarios where there's just enough stuff in the ER that the bears could produce a sugarstorm of BS articles about how SCTY will bankrupt Tesla. Not much long-term influence but could create a buying opportunity.

My response was to say that regardless of those scenarios you're thinking about, bears will produce the articles therefore plan accordingly. How the heck was that off point?!?!

 

[madodel]

What I think would be nicer is if people weren't disingenuous, passive aggressive, purposefully obtuse, et al... But hey, that's just me.



No, actually they don't. The World needs other EVs to succeed. Tesla is doing just fine on its own regardless of rebelling Bolts committing seppuku and driving themselves into garage walls.



Not relevant to your comment. Let me quote you just to refresh your memory: If it turns out there is something seriously wrong with the Bolt, that would be a set back for Tesla as well.

The truth is if there's something seriously wrong with the Bolt, GM will have to issue a recall for the seven (25? 32?) they've currently delivered to owners and fix them. That may or may not affect GM sales of future Bolts, but it won't for one second slow Tesla down or their Model 3 sales. Just sit back and watch.

I seem to recall GM has a problem in the past with admitting their vehicles have the ability to kill people. Hopefully that doesn't happen in this case. At least it is evident early on so the financial hit is small for GM to not want to commit a crime again but that assumes they recognize there is a problem and figure out how to fix it before it destroys what small number of sales the Bolt they allow to have. I think most people will see this as a GM problem, not an EV problem, though exhaust huffers will do their best to sell it as the later of course.

 

[racer26]

On the 100D: US Price delta over 90D = $3k USD.
Canadian Price delta over 90D = $7500 CAD.

Currency exchange alone (roughly 1.33CAD = 1USD right now) does not explain this.

 

[Drax7]

Then what was your point?

Here's what you wrote: I am also thinking about scenarios where there's just enough stuff in the ER that the bears could produce a sugarstorm of BS articles about how SCTY will bankrupt Tesla. Not much long-term influence but could create a buying opportunity.

My response was to say that regardless of those scenarios you're thinking about, bears will produce the articles therefore plan accordingly. How was heck that off point?!?!

The point is that the headline number , could be polluted by solarcity, which may
Impact the price of the stock. Risk implies price concession.

 

[Krugerrand]

The point is that the headline number , could be polluted by solarcity, which may
Impact the price of the stock. Risk implies price concession.

Uh, huh. I addressed that in my post that you said wasn't the point.

 

[SteveG3]

$3000 on top of the 90D. That strikes me as cheap. (Under 300 USD/kWh!)

Should be a big seller.

I see in this a very good chance we will see a $34-35K base Model 3 and a $37-38K Model 3 with a battery 10 kWh larger and as good or better range than the Bolt's 238 miles.

It's not that Elon or investors need to worry about market share, but rather Elon's pattern of not allowing even the misperception of anyone having any leg up on Tesla go unanswered very long, i.e.,

Ford and Germans announce 350 kWh charging... Elon "child's toy" tweet

FF promoting 2.39 seconds, quickest 0-60... Elon tweeting re 2.38 with software upgrade, expectations of 2.34, musings of 2.1 if car was stripped for racing.

 

[racer26]

I see in this a very good chance we will see a $34-35K base Model 3 and a $37-38K Model 3 with a battery 10 kWh larger and as good or better range than the Bolt's 238 miles.

It's not that Elon or investors need to worry about market share, but rather Elon's pattern of not allowing even the misperception of anyone having any leg up on Tesla go unanswered very long, i.e.,

Ford and Germans announce 350 kWh charging... Elon "child's toy" tweet

FF promoting 2.39 seconds, quickest 0-60... Elon tweeting re 2.38 with software upgrade, expectations of 2.34, musings of 2.1 if car was stripped for racing.

I think you're wrong.

Bolt achieves its "238mi" range with a Cd of 0.32, a larger frontal area than a Model S, and a 60kWh battery.

Model 3 is expected to be smaller frontal area than Model S, Cd of 0.21, and slightly less than 60kWh battery.

I believe that Model 3 in base trim will have longer range than Bolt in any configuration. 240-250mi for the base Model 3.

Top end configuration Model 3 might touch the 350-400 mi ballpark.

 

[SteveG3]

I think you're wrong.

Bolt achieves its "238mi" range with a Cd of 0.32, a larger frontal area than a Model S, and a 60kWh battery.

Model 3 is expected to be smaller frontal area than Model S, Cd of 0.21, and slightly less than 60kWh battery.

I believe that Model 3 in base trim will have longer range than Bolt in any configuration. 240-250mi for the base Model 3.

Top end configuration Model 3 might touch the 350-400 mi ballpark.

We shall see. I'd be quite pleased with either scenario.

 

[austinEV]

On the 100D: US Price delta over 90D = $3k USD.
Canadian Price delta over 90D = $7500 CAD.

Currency exchange alone (roughly 1.33CAD = 1USD right now) does not explain this.

Other currencies are the same I hear. I think this is a sneaky currency adjustment. Darn clever.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Sorry, that's not gonna cut it. All configurations already increased dramatically in price last few years. How can an upgrade, added today, that costs $3.000 in US be $7700 in EU? Does not make sense.

Cheapest 60kwh non-D now is 86.800 EUR; I remember when it was 73.000 EUR, then 77.000 EUR. That is without any options, AP; ...

In EU these are high high-end prices.

Wasn't there some shenanigans with Germany imposing a tarrif on cars costing more than $X, so Tesla just reduced the base price of the car below that amount, but had to increase cost of options to make up for it?