I know Elon stated they could not fit 100 kWh in the Model 3 but don't recall Elon or anyone else from Tesla stating 80 kWh was the maximum that would fit.
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I know Elon stated they could not fit 100 kWh in the Model 3 but don't recall Elon or anyone else from Tesla stating 80 kWh was the maximum that would fit.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Apparently they have to be small people.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Off Shore
Off Topic Member
FWIW seconds after he said "7 cents" he said "wholesale." Not sure what that means in context.
My guess? Fleet purchase rate for bulk purchase. Sorry, individual truck owners. :-(
They were doing rides for at least 4 hours and it looked like each ride was about 5 minutes. In that time frame would be almost 50 rides.
And something to note is that to get a ride you had to put a $5k deposit down with the understanding that you would wire $45k, or $245k, in the next 10 days to complete your reservation. (Of course the reservation is fully refundable, so people could have put a $5k deposit down to get a ride and then just asked for a refund the next day.)
Reciprocity
Active Member
Onsite is certainly ideal, but won't be possible in every case. I have been reading about costs for solar alone approaching 1c/kwh 2019 and that includes the manufactures markup:
Cheapest electricity on the planet is Mexican solar power at 1.77¢/kWh – record 1¢/kWh coming in 2019, sooner
1.77c recently in Mexico but that is closer to the ideal place for solar.
My thought is that the exchange with utilities would compensate for that because solar would be built close to where it is used, saving the utility transmission costs or crediting Tesla with higher wholesale rates which would directly offset grid tied usage at the megachargers. The utility will pay a premium to satisfy renewable requirements and or sell the renewable electricity at higher rates to people who chose green options. Either way, if Tesla is manufacturing everything themselves, the costs could be as low as 1c/KWh by 2019, which leaves 6c for batteries and profit. How much is whole sale energy? Including transmission. My original thought is that Tesla would charge competitive rates for the mega chargers and have lower margins on the truck, but it's clear now the truck well have normal margins, 30%+ and electricity and maint will be just over break even.
Either way, Tesla is going to be building thousands of micro grids for themselves and Tesla could be the biggest utility in the planet in 5 years. I would imagine they have a plan to squeeze some margin out of all that charging, maybe upwards of 30%. All it would take us batteries for under 5c/KWh.
You know I just had a thought... First time for everything.. what if they used recycled Tesla Auto batteries on these microgrids? They are basically free as they cannot be used for anything else and they would be to expensive to breakdown and reuse the raw materials.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I figure there will be some solar on site where possible, like the Kettelman SC location. If you are going to build a roof over the chargers might as well put some solar panels up.
Like the original Roadster, there is actually a door sill you have to get over, maybe 3-4" of it. So what you measure in the photo is exaggerated at the top. Mind you it's hard to see where the bottom is for real, so it could still be a double stack.
The 7c electricity is I think the main weak link in the Tesla semi story. The economics only make sense at below market rates for the power. Keep in mind that these sub 2c solar tariffs are not necessarily all in costs. The governments/utilities in Saudi and Mexico are contributing to the projects in various ways. The already mentioned more ideal locations is very significant also. Take into account that Tesla would need to be able to store this power so that it could be dispatched as necessary 24 hours per day, and the price goes up a whole lot. Never mind the area required for even one 1 or 1.5 MW solar array, and the cost for that. Now imagine that a Walmart distribution center would need to to charge dozens of trucks at once, and it becomes clear that the capital investment to make this work at any kind of scale is astronomical. When you start talking about 10s of MW, you aren't just throwing up a few acres of panels and a few banks of batteries. This is utility scale investment. I'm not saying it is impossible, but the economics of guaranteeing 7c electricity are sketchy, at best. Since that is what the whole thing hinges on, I think there needs to be some more explanation from Tesla about how this is going to happen.
adiggs
Well-Known Member
Also keep in mind that the cost to install solar is STILL dropping year over year, and not particularly showing signs of slowing. And that Elon is kind of in the business, and kind of has insight into how those costs are changing and more importantly - he has line of sight to what price his company is going to be able to deliver solar to the market in 3-5 years.
7c sounds ridiculously cheap to me today - when I remember that the cost of solar is still going down though, that has me wondering if Elon is guaranteeing a price that in 3 years is going to start looking reasonable, and start looking expensive in 8-10.
There are already 2 Founder editions reserved in Belgium. FWIW.
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
Out of curiosity. Where do owners who live downtown park their roadsters. Where I live, there's a pretty high property crime rate. Cars gets broken into in garages all the time.
Mike Smith
Active Member
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Unlikely that Tesla will charge fleet owners differently than individual owners. That is a death wish that would quickly amplify "Tesla vs. 99%" B.S.
Reciprocity
Active Member
Does Walmart need to mega charge dozens of trucks at the same time? Or would super chargers work for loading docks? I think Tesla would sell and get similar benefits from local governments and utilities as I stated.. see srectrade.com for an idea of what I mean by utilities having to pay for renewable generation. Contracts are up to 15 years long and they are not buying the electricity, they are paying for it to be generated cleanly and consumed. The fees are basically a tax on utilities for not having enough renewables. My point is that Tesla can build out utility scale solar + battery anywhere in the world to offset the cost and consumption of Supercharging and mega charging, which they also charge a fee for. The net effect would be 30% margins, because we all know Tesla doesn't do anything without 30% margins.
Stop getting hung up on solar panels at the charging stations, its a known fact that you would need several football field worth of solar for a large Supercharging station, it ain't going to happen. Some large mega charging truck stops might, but I expect Tesla will partner with utilities and local governments and customers to build out utility grade microgrids and most charging will be grid tied with some tiny solar for show, like the huge kettleman station. There really isn't anything other way to do it. It is actually not just the only way to do it, it's required because Tesla is shifting massive demand from fossil fuels to electricity and the grid cannot handle it without a distributed solution (wind and solar) with batteries. Wouldn't be shocked to see Tesla partner with or buy a wind turbine company. Might make some sense where there is a lot is wind at night and would make smaller batteries work..
An example of partnering with local companies. In Chicago they have Superchargers at Meijer stores. There is no good place for a massive array, except the roof of the store. Tesla is also selling semis to Meijer. My assumption is that they will install charging at their unloading docs and solar+battery for the store and adjacent Supercharging station. Win/win for both. 7c rates for Tesla and Meijer and 15c rates for model 3 owners. And Tesla can sell the srecs for $50/MWh per year for 15 years in a single contract with funds to front from the utilities. That plus fed tax incentives would pay a large amount of the upfront costs.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
The visual "double stack" argument only argues the volumetric energy density side of things, and does not explain the high gravimetric energy density improvement that would be needed for 1.9s acceleration.
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