The current production sites can only make up to 1 million cars a year. Another 3 Gigafactories will be announced soon. All hinges on the Model 3 ramp, Tesla counts on the cashflow to build new factories. A new Gigafactory may need billions, but it can be built in stages, doesn't need all the money right away. Once we finish 5 Gigafactories, getting to 12 will be relatively easy.
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The current production sites can only make up to 1 million cars a year. Another 3 Gigafactories will be announced soon. All hinges on the Model 3 ramp, Tesla counts on the cashflow to build new factories. A new Gigafactory may need billions, but it can be built in stages, doesn't need all the money right away. Once we finish 5 Gigafactories, getting to 12 will be relatively easy.
One or two otherpoints to consider, the Mission is to facilitate the transition from fossil fuels as quickly as possible. EM has not sought to disrupt in areas already making substantial progress such as busses. Also there is a lot of effort in smaller commercial trucks. However you can see the disruptive force on the entire oil market which can be exerted by long range heavy trucks. See jhm's extensive analysis in the shorting oil thread. In fact the diesel areas appears to be the single biggest area of weakness. A second reason for attacking big rigs first is the need to establish performance dominance before releasing a pickup. Pickup owners will need to be forcefully convinced that ICE is inferior to BEV on a performance basis. They are not swayed by cost or environmental considerations.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
More Canadian fleets order Tesla Semis - Truck News
"Speedy Transport believes it is the first LTL carrier in Canada to place an order for five Tesla Semis, with plans to increase the order to 10 units."
Continental Express, Inc. | news
"On November 16th the electronic automaker, Tesla, Inc. announced production of its new fully electric Class 8 Tractor. In anticipation of this event, Continental Express has placed a reservation with Tesla and is expecting to receive its first Class 8 tractor in 2019."
Titanium Transportation Group Reserves Five Tesla Trucks
"Speedy Transport believes it is the first LTL carrier in Canada to place an order for five Tesla Semis, with plans to increase the order to 10 units."
Continental Express, Inc. | news
"On November 16th the electronic automaker, Tesla, Inc. announced production of its new fully electric Class 8 Tractor. In anticipation of this event, Continental Express has placed a reservation with Tesla and is expecting to receive its first Class 8 tractor in 2019."
Titanium Transportation Group Reserves Five Tesla Trucks
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Bobfitz1 said: ↑
Not at all. Perhaps you did not see the original post which pointed out that 1,000 KWh of batteries can power 1 semi or 13 M3s at 75 KWh. This is simple math. Divide 1000 by 75. Tesla seems to strive for 25 or 30% Gross Margin on its vehicles. Say they are confident they will reach that on the M3 once production ramps to planned level. If the Semi reaches the GM Tesla aims for, ideally its GM would be same percentage as M3. Say that was 30% GM. $180,000 x .30 = $54,000 gross profit. The current LR M3 runs about $50K.
$50,000 x .30 = $15,000 gross profit. If you only had 1,000 Kwh of batteries available and had to choose between using them to make 1 semi or 13 LR M3, which would be the more profitable option just from the vehicle sales standpoint?
13 x $15K = $195,000.
It's reasonable that warranty service costs for 13 M3 would be higher than for 1 Semi. But what does annual warranty service for M3
run? 1K? 2K? Multiply by 13. It would be quite a few years for this to make up for a $141K profit differential.
Still not reading what I wrote. The observation is that Tesla can make more immediate profit using cells for M3/MY than Semi.
This only becomes of potential impact to Semi volume IF increasing battery production can't keep up with demand and production capacity to build M3 and MYs. We can hope that Tesla will not be able to build enough M3 in 2019 and 2020 to outstrip GF1 battery production, but this isn't as certain as you suggest. Tesla aspires to build around 500K M3 in 2019. That equals 35 GWh. GF1's original planned capacity.. But some amount of that must go to increasing storage battery needs. They plan to begin producing MY in some factory beginning (perhaps) late 2019. 2020 sees higher M3 production and ramping MY. 105 GWh from GF1 by 2020 or later is still aspirational at this time. We don't know how many GWh GF1 is producing now, nor do we know for sure when it will reach 35GWh and then 105.
I hope like everyone invested, that the aspirations are met about when they have projected. But their aspirational goals often take longer than originally projected. It remains to be seen whether they will be limited over the next five years by how many cells they can produce or by how many vehicles of different types they have capacity to build. If M3 production in 2017 was 100 - 200K as Elon guesstimated two or three years ago, GF1 would not have been making enough cells this year to support that many.
Not at all. Perhaps you did not see the original post which pointed out that 1,000 KWh of batteries can power 1 semi or 13 M3s at 75 KWh. This is simple math. Divide 1000 by 75. Tesla seems to strive for 25 or 30% Gross Margin on its vehicles. Say they are confident they will reach that on the M3 once production ramps to planned level. If the Semi reaches the GM Tesla aims for, ideally its GM would be same percentage as M3. Say that was 30% GM. $180,000 x .30 = $54,000 gross profit. The current LR M3 runs about $50K.
$50,000 x .30 = $15,000 gross profit. If you only had 1,000 Kwh of batteries available and had to choose between using them to make 1 semi or 13 LR M3, which would be the more profitable option just from the vehicle sales standpoint?
13 x $15K = $195,000.
It's reasonable that warranty service costs for 13 M3 would be higher than for 1 Semi. But what does annual warranty service for M3
run? 1K? 2K? Multiply by 13. It would be quite a few years for this to make up for a $141K profit differential.
Still not reading what I wrote. The observation is that Tesla can make more immediate profit using cells for M3/MY than Semi.
This only becomes of potential impact to Semi volume IF increasing battery production can't keep up with demand and production capacity to build M3 and MYs. We can hope that Tesla will not be able to build enough M3 in 2019 and 2020 to outstrip GF1 battery production, but this isn't as certain as you suggest. Tesla aspires to build around 500K M3 in 2019. That equals 35 GWh. GF1's original planned capacity.. But some amount of that must go to increasing storage battery needs. They plan to begin producing MY in some factory beginning (perhaps) late 2019. 2020 sees higher M3 production and ramping MY. 105 GWh from GF1 by 2020 or later is still aspirational at this time. We don't know how many GWh GF1 is producing now, nor do we know for sure when it will reach 35GWh and then 105.
I hope like everyone invested, that the aspirations are met about when they have projected. But their aspirational goals often take longer than originally projected. It remains to be seen whether they will be limited over the next five years by how many cells they can produce or by how many vehicles of different types they have capacity to build. If M3 production in 2017 was 100 - 200K as Elon guesstimated two or three years ago, GF1 would not have been making enough cells this year to support that many.
I did read and understand it. But I don't think you fully grasp how inconsistent your scenario is. In 2017 and 2018, there is no model Y nor semi, so you can't say "Tesla can make more immediate profit using cells for M3/MY than Semi". It is inherently a thought experiment for the 2019/2020 year, when the gigafactory is "expected" to be at full capacity. As of now, the Model Y prototype hasn't even been released yet! You've written it yourself, Tesla's aspirational goals often take longer than originally projected. That is even more applicable to new product launches like model Y, than to existing projects in development like GF1. But just to clarify, I DO expect the Model Y to be announced soon. But I DO NOT expect full GF1 production to be completed AFTER Model Y production starts, especially since there aren't even any new factory sites announced besides Shanghai.
The gigafactory floorspace is 1/3 done. We'll know within next year whether or not it can build 35GWh in that footprint. No hypotheticals needed. If it can, then 105GWh is simply dependent on execution.
sub
Active Member
Article is a little old but I had not seen this talked about.
Electric vehicles will lower your power bill (OPINION)
Electric vehicles will lower your power bill (OPINION)
Some EVs can be used to stabilize the grid (I think the Leaf has this ability—IIRC Amsterdam uses them this way as well). Teslas cannot provide grid stabilization right now.
That being said I wonder if the author is thinking that since lots of EVs overnight charge they can provide more constant revenue for the utilities and thereby allow lower demand pricing by spreading out their pricing and demand?
Hogfighter
Professional Lurker
OK I've thought about it all day, and you've got brought up some good points. So here's my new theory: The founders reservations are still open. I would imagine 10 regular reservations for every founders. I would imagine around 600 founders have already reserved. So that's $450M. I would say by the end of January, they have $1 billion
Okay, ive thought a lot about this, and you've convinced me to revise my estimate. I'm going with a total of $1B of added customer deposits by end of January.
But here's what's so brilliant about this money....they never have to pay it back. Here's why: I gave them $50k as a deposit. Then, I give them $150k for a car that's costs them $100k to build. They're essentially taking profits now for a product they won't deliver for 3-4 years. Brilliant.
Reciprocity
Active Member
It's definitely brilliant. The market clearly doesn't get it, but they will as you said, by Feb when they reported positive cash flows when they are supposed to be burning billions a quarter. People also need to remember, the model 3 cash burn is not infinite, it's actually very finite. You only pay for the robots once and only when they work. Same fires for the automation hardware at the gigafactory. Per Depak, they are 1-2 quarters from that point for the model 3 and I'm assuming the amount will go down over the next two quarters as the equipment not certified would be a smaller and smaller percent as they ramp. Model 3 should be cash flow positive by the end of next quarter, about the same time capex related to the model 3 decreases to almost nothing.
Reading the comments I note that our local FUDsters have metastasized down under ...
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Do you still believe this statement after Tesla's latest marketing e-mail implied that the Founders edition wasn't sold out?
Ok, Norway definitive numbers for November:
I personally expect (based on pure speculation about past numbers) at least 800 cars for December (very conservative), which would give us the 2nd best quarter ever with >2000 cars.
Not sure if the possibility of the elimination of the incentive in Norway is to thank for this spike, we should ask @Yggdrasill. If that is true maybe these numbers are showing an inflated demand.
I remember that someone tried to infer a correlation of Norway numbers to overall (European? International?) demand, but maybe I'm mistaken. Maybe Norway is a total outlier.
- 997 cars
- 2nd best month ever (September 2017 was 2003 is definitely out of scale)
- we're already +30% on 16Q4
- as of now, YoY is >85%
I personally expect (based on pure speculation about past numbers) at least 800 cars for December (very conservative), which would give us the 2nd best quarter ever with >2000 cars.
Not sure if the possibility of the elimination of the incentive in Norway is to thank for this spike, we should ask @Yggdrasill. If that is true maybe these numbers are showing an inflated demand.
I remember that someone tried to infer a correlation of Norway numbers to overall (European? International?) demand, but maybe I'm mistaken. Maybe Norway is a total outlier.
Runarbt
Active Member
Tesla semi reservations closed?
I now and then check roadster and semi reservation pages to see if founders editions are sold out.
Today, I am not able to get to semi reservation pages. All I get is roadster. A bug? Or have they closed semi reservations? Would think they'd put in a not of why.. so most likely website update which went wrong?
Tesla Semi Unveil
I now and then check roadster and semi reservation pages to see if founders editions are sold out.
Today, I am not able to get to semi reservation pages. All I get is roadster. A bug? Or have they closed semi reservations? Would think they'd put in a not of why.. so most likely website update which went wrong?
Tesla Semi Unveil
Norway is a an outlier in terms of outsized growth but the rest of Europe is also on an upward trend after news came out that Model 3 will not appear before end of 2018 here. The broader economy doing better also helps.
Runarbt
Active Member
Nope, when you click on this link, you are forwarded to the link i posted Tesla Semi Unveil which only has roadster, no semi?
Seems to be related to your IP address. Got the roadster page with my Norwegian IP. When I changed to a US IP I got the Semi page.
Reciprocity
Active Member
I just received an email yesterday that said...
"The new Tesla Roadster is the first production car in the world to accelerate from zero to 60 mph in less than two seconds. And with a quarter-mile time of 8.8 seconds and a top speed of over 250 mph, it’s the first car to set every performance record and still have seating for four.
A limited number of Founders Series reservations are available now."
So yeah, they are not sold out as of yesterday. Clicking through, it does still lets me select the founder series.
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