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China is currently driving our growth. For example, we are benefiting from a truck boom in our diesel business there. But after the People’s Congress, we expect the government to implement structural reforms to reduce overcapacity and the high level of debt. Besides, a subsidy program in the passenger car sector is also coming to an end. The boom is unlikely to continue, which will affect our diesel business. So far, we have been able to compensate for significant declines in other markets with demand in China.
The transition to electromobility takes time and investment. We will certainly need 10 years to manage the transformation process. This applies to both employment and production. In our factories, we are currently investing billions of euros in machines, tools and systems, especially for diesel and gasoline engines. These investments will become worthless because they cannot be used for electromobility.
Elon is spot on here.
"Mass" and "scale" are in diametric opposition. They are opposites. Mass does not scale.
For efficiency reasons, you do want to ride with other people. 3 or 4 riders beats mass transit energy efficiency - especially in a Model 3.
There would need to be something like affinity groups.
...I guess all the mass murderers will ride together...
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I count 28x12=336, but that's being conservative; there were spaces in the front that might have represented partially filled columns.
Thank you. The thing that is troubling to me is that, at least according to Probes Reporter, the FOIA request was not denied under exemption
"(b) (4) trade secrets and commercial or financial information obtained from a person and privileged or confidential"
but apparently under exemption (b) (7):
"records or information compiled for law enforcement purposes, but only to the extent that the production of such law enforcement records or information (A) could reasonably be expected to interfere with enforcement proceedings, (B) would deprive a person of a right to a fair trial or an impartial adjudication, (C) could reasonably be expected to constitute an unwarranted invasion of personal privacy, (D) could reasonably be expected to disclose the identity of a confidential source, including a State, local, or foreign agency or authority or any private institution which furnished information on a confidential basis, and, in the case of a record or information compiled by a criminal law enforcement authority in the course of a criminal investigation or by an agency conducting a lawful national security intelligence investigation, information furnished by a confidential source, (E) would disclose techniques and procedures for law enforcement investigations or prosecutions, or would disclose guidelines for law enforcement investigations or prosecutions if such disclosure could reasonably be expected to risk circumvention of the law, or (F) could reasonably be expected to endanger the life or physical safety of any individual"
"In its response to us of 07-Dec-2017, the SEC also blocked access to other records on Tesla on law enforcement grounds." https://probesreporter.com/sites/default/files/uploads/documents/DI - TSLA 2017-1214.pdf
Which is why I asked Mr Renz if Probes Reporter was known in the financial journalism community to harbor an anti-Tesla bias that would motivate a sensational headline.
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dc_h
Active Member
That sounds like a Kodak moment!
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Aptiv, Valens working to slash car wiring
"It requires one cable for each type," said Micha Risling, senior vice president of Valens Automotive, based in Hod HaSharon, Israel. "For video, audio, USB and Internet, you will carry them over five or six cables today," he said. "We can carry them over one cable."
Tesla CEO Elon Musk this year created buzz around eliminating wiring when he told analysts that the Tesla Model 3 contains roughly half the 10,000 feet of wire used in the Tesla Model S liftback, which was launched in 2012. He said Tesla's next model, the Model Y small crossover, would require only 328 feet.
In August, Aptiv CEO Kevin Clark told market analysts that his company is Tesla's primary wire harness provider. Clark said Aptiv is having similar strategic discussions with other automakers about reducing wiring and new architectures for vehicles — "principally with the European German luxury OEs."
"It requires one cable for each type," said Micha Risling, senior vice president of Valens Automotive, based in Hod HaSharon, Israel. "For video, audio, USB and Internet, you will carry them over five or six cables today," he said. "We can carry them over one cable."
Tesla CEO Elon Musk this year created buzz around eliminating wiring when he told analysts that the Tesla Model 3 contains roughly half the 10,000 feet of wire used in the Tesla Model S liftback, which was launched in 2012. He said Tesla's next model, the Model Y small crossover, would require only 328 feet.
In August, Aptiv CEO Kevin Clark told market analysts that his company is Tesla's primary wire harness provider. Clark said Aptiv is having similar strategic discussions with other automakers about reducing wiring and new architectures for vehicles — "principally with the European German luxury OEs."
Elon Musk was hyperbolic as usual, but correct.
Before I moved from the UK to the USA, I used public transportation instead of owning a car.
The good:
- Don't have to drive. It gives you some of your commute time back
- Access to urban centers without having to find parking
- Cheaper than owning a car (at least in countries with high fuel taxation)
- More exercise: more walking between journey nodes; more likely to cycle moderate distances
The bad:
- The hub-based model, outside of "high-speed" trains, is often a lot slower than travel by car.
- The quality of the bus or train can vary wildly
- More exposure to weather when connecting between transportation
- Waiting
- Public transportation often has limited hours or frequency that either restrict what you can do, or require the additional expense of car rental or taxis in order to get where you want to go.
- Businesses often assume use of a car and locate away from public transportation.
For me, the good outweighed the bad, but I accept that most people show by their actions how much they prefer to have a car.
Accusing Elon Musk of elitism is actually quite ironic given that if his companies are successful it's actually people on low incomes who stand to gain the most.
Public transport is complicated, and of course, as you stated, there are pros and cons.
I think it's important to mention that, if you live in a densely populated city, *there's no alternative* to some form of mass transit. Maybe minivans on underground tunnels + Tesla networks will be enough, but I've not seen the math and I'm not really sure. Also, we are far from having a network of hundreds of tunnels under a city. I'm all for EM to experiment and do the thing he does better, but I really, really *hope* the remarks he said at the conference are not a byproduct of him being a detached billionaire, because this really scares me (as a person and as an investor).
I think Tesla is a great company, and I also think it's a ethical company (probably the best chance we have to fight climate change). This, for me, is very important.
I was fine with Musk's "I wish Wired hadn't taken off-the-cuff remarks and made them a basis for an article", which is a good response, and if he's saying "I was misinterpreted" that's fine.
But I already know that Musk is a bit of an ignoramus when it comes to *mass* transportation, suggesting that is known to be unsound for fundamental physics reasons. He should shut his mouth and start learning rather than accepting invititations to Twitter fights.
Tesla could be a leader in electric trains -- pretty easily actually, given the decrepit state of the "competition" -- but not if Musk retains delusional car-centric views.
He already knows about the parking problem and apparently it's giving him headaches. The solution is known, obvious, and popular: high-capacity, high-frequency, comfortable, automated electric trains. When will he drop his quixotic obsessions and apply it? Heck, when will he visit Vancouver, BC and see how frequently trains can be run when you don't have to pay a driver?
dhrivnak
Active Member
Highly unlikely as VIN registrations are still at 3800 6 months into production. I for one will be happy and impressed if they run a consistent 5000/week by this time next year.What if during production bottleneck sleepover at the factory they discovered some breakthrough tech, and now they already ramped to 10,000 a week ?
Jk jk
I've seen the math and I'm quite sure: they won't be.
You can't get the volume of people-moving without trains. They are the high-volume solution. Anything else is silliness, and this is due to fundamental physics first principles. Musk needs to listen to his own advice.
Automate the trains (like Vancouver Skytrain), obviously -- unlike cars, where the automation problem may never be fully solved, it already *has* been solved for trains. Entirely.
And we'll never have it for cost reasons, unless the government decides to waste taxpayer money, which is always a possibility (see the military). When you can replace 20 car tunnels with two train tunnels, which you can, there's just no money in car tunnels. That efficiency cannot be overcome, financially speaking.
Trains are about 20 times more comfortable than cars anyway. You can stand up, walk around, stretch. Sure, nobody likes an overcrowded train, but nobody likes an overcrowded car (or an overcrowded road!) either.
And it's way easier to relieve overcrowding on trains: add more cars, run them more frequently. Until you get to NYC Subway Lexington Avenue Line (4/5/6 in Midtown) frequencies and train lengths, you don't even need to build more tunnels. The reason most public transit agencies don't run trains frequently enough is the cost of drivers, who are obsolete and should not exist.
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So he says, don't write off diesel yet, because that would kill VW! Hahaha
This paragraph highlights their fundamental problem, why they are unwilling to change to electric drivetrains:
They have 88,000 people working on obsolete technology, who will be out of job if they would shift to electric.
So all the many new EV models coming out by 2020 are just smoke and mirrors, they are still fully committed to stick with ICE technology!
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ValueAnalyst
Closed
Question for everyone:
What do you expect Model 3 ASP to be in 4Q18 and beyond?
Facts:
SR: $35,000
LR: $44,000
PUP: $5,000
EAP: $6,000 incl. delivery
FSD: $4,000 incl. delivery
My predictions:
D: Included in all cars
P: add $35,000
FSD price will increase when Level 4 is introduced
What do you expect Model 3 ASP to be in 4Q18 and beyond?
Facts:
SR: $35,000
LR: $44,000
PUP: $5,000
EAP: $6,000 incl. delivery
FSD: $4,000 incl. delivery
My predictions:
D: Included in all cars
P: add $35,000
FSD price will increase when Level 4 is introduced
That's worse than that.
Deep down they don't even care about all those people losing their job.
They know that the major shift that they would have to do would worsen their financial situation on the short term (2-3 years), shareholders of those companies would get angry (because bad financial performances mean bad financial market performances), and they would ultimately lose their job without their bonus.
It's all about short term vs long term thinking. They don't want to suffer on the short term.
Gonna disagree with you here, because of the different scope of the problem being solved. Trains are indeed the most efficient at moving masses of people from point A to point B, but this forces a large group of people in an area to find someway to get to point A (from points C,D,E, etc), and then a corresponding method to leave point B (to points Z,Y,X,W, etc). So that makes the train non-viable as a SOLE means of mass transit, it has to be coupled with buses, taxis, and bicycles (the walkers can be considered "served" by train only and represent a small fraction of the ridership).
Secondly, trains are most efficient when you're looking at one path from point A to point B (via track or highway), but in mega cities, where one city grows right into another, there are a number of interconnected surface streets that represent additional paths that an autonomous vehicle can use to alleviate the congestion on the main travel arteries. In places like Southern California (which is probably where this bias is coming from), mass transit is truly NOT a viable solution.
I took Musk's comment as a focus on solving the "traveling" problem, not in solving the "traffic/congestion" problem. It can be implemented where it makes sense, like SoCal, and NOT implemented where it wouldn't (like New York/Boston?)
Edit: grammar.
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I'm going with $4,000 for D and $12,000 for P. That way a fully loaded 3 runs about $75K which is just at/ under BMW M4 but drives higher volume.
Longer term I expect the price points to remain stable but the SR to go towards 300miles in range with larger battery.
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