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Waiting4M3
Active Member
I doubt anyone knows, maybe not even Tesla. The CapEx required to go from 5k/wk to 10k/wk depends a lot on how much speed they can squeeze out of the existing production line. For example while fixing the battery module line at GGF, they came up with a design for zone 2 that can do 3X the throughput. They originally built 4 lines in zone 2, assuming it exactly meets 5k/wk, so each line is capable of 1250/wk. Now the redesigned line 4 can do 3750/wk, they will only need to re-build 1 of the 3 other lines to match line 4, and reach 10k/wk (1250*2 + 3750*2), and there is no need to expand to 8 lines as they would have originally planned to do, saving both equipment and factory floor space. These kind of input into planning is changing on a monthly basis as they continue to learn more about what the M3 production line is capable of.
I think Tesla won't allow themselves to run out of cash. They will push the ramp to 10k/wk as fast as their cash flow will allow. So if it looks more costly than their plan, then they may not make it by their original target date, but at a delayed date as the cash flow allows, which is pretty much Tesla SOP. If capital is available they will tap it and add more cash that way. I think we will get guidance in Feb's conf call, but I fully expect Tesla to tweak it constantly going forward.
I see myusername vs. Tesla similar to the Black Knight vs. King Arthur. At some point in 2018, we will get to the denouement of this skit -- e.g. "Oh I see... running away eh... you yellow bastard, come back here and take what's coming to you... I'll bite your legs off."
dc_h
Active Member
I added about 10% to my long term holdings. May not work out this week, but I’m confident we’ll be up by first week of January.
Can you explain why it's just a year? NOLs can be carried forward 20 years. https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/i1139.pdf
The most recent quarterly report said: "As of September 30, 2017 and December 31, 2016, the aggregate balances of our gross unrecognized tax benefits were $300.0 million and $203.9 million, respectively, of which $292.9 million and $198.3 million, respectively, would not give rise to changes in our effective tax rate since these tax benefits would increase a deferred tax asset that is currently fully offset by a valuation allowance."
Also, the tax benefits and off-setting valuation allowance appear to be in the $ billion since they increased by nearly a billion when a new accounting standard about employee share based compensation was adopted:
"We adopted the ASU on January 1, 2017. Our gross U.S. deferred tax assets increased by $909.1 million as a result of our adoption, which was fully offset by a corresponding increase to our valuation allowance."
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ValueAnalyst
Closed
Tesla's total historical loss until it turns profitable in 2018 will be offset by the accumulated profits by the end of 2019.
Check this thread - looks like lots of non employees getting their cars before xmas -
My delivery is on for tomorrow!
That's quite a prediction since the 9/30/17 Balance Sheet shows an accumulated deficit of $4.3 billion.
Buddyroe
Active Member
I only see one in that thread. Am I missing something?
EDIT: I do see 2 now actually. One poster is getting his Friday.
While I'm sure the incentives account for a great amount of the high MS, MX sales, and Norway is pretty unique, I still think it shows as well what to expect when the majority of people in a prosperous country are fully aware of Tesla, it's products and mission. If this is correct, the M3 reservation backlog (and reservation fees) should skyrocket starting in 2nd half of 2018.
"Prices for the Roadster will start at $200,000 which, when compared to current supercars with specs like these, is a bit of a steal. A Founder Series, which is now sold out, will cost from $250,000."
Tesla Roadster - You won’t believe how far you can travel on a single charge
Tesla Roadster - You won’t believe how far you can travel on a single charge
Nice predictions and positive cash flow expected but still a linear ramp anticipated versus the exponential one EM is working for.... it seems hard for the human brain to imagine....
"Jonas forecasts Tesla will deliver 8,000 Model 3s in Q1, 24,000 in Q2, 32,000 in Q3 and 46,000 in Q4. Morgan Stanley predicts the company’s cash burn will improve significantly in the first quarter and that it will report positive free cash flow of $600 million in Q2."
Tesla Could Jump 70% on Model 3 Success: Analysts
"Jonas forecasts Tesla will deliver 8,000 Model 3s in Q1, 24,000 in Q2, 32,000 in Q3 and 46,000 in Q4. Morgan Stanley predicts the company’s cash burn will improve significantly in the first quarter and that it will report positive free cash flow of $600 million in Q2."
Tesla Could Jump 70% on Model 3 Success: Analysts
It is still available on the Tesla reservations page though!
Its at least 2 in the thread and this here supposed to be a 3rd: Model 3 Delivery set for 12/26. Current owner CA day 1 store reservation • r/teslamotors
Still small amount of announcements I agree.
P.S. an another one Model 3 delivery confirmed for end of this week (owner, non-employee, day one res., day one conf.) • r/teslamotors
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Buddyroe
Active Member
Yea, I'm looking for the big number, like 500 or 600 before eoy for non-emp deliveries. Something material. I'm hoping total m3 deliveries for 2017 will be around 2500.
Great reply, thanks! Only point I think may be off is assuming the multi zone battery module line, where a zone that is slow compared to others can be split into several sub zones so as to keep up, can be applied to the more complex and large size full car assembly line.
Perhaps it can, not sure. I'm still a bit skeptical that the full car assembly line able to output 5K/week can be sped up to do 10K, given 5K is such an advance over MS/X assembly line.
Hogfighter
Professional Lurker
Regarding CapEx, I'd be surprised if they took their foot off the growth pedal anytime soon. We were all hoping for FCF positive right when the 400,000 reservations came along, with the resulting 2 year move-up of the GF/3.
Not seeing profits as long as cash is available.
Hogfighter
Professional Lurker
dc_h
Active Member
More conservative than I imagined. He was on target for this year and early on in the year. I hope he’s off a quarter and 24,000 in Q1.
Yuri_G
Member
Doubtful, I'm thinking 1k tops in December. Probably under that. Not much evidence deliveries have ramped up substantially. Would love to be wrong, however.
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