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This is rolling over my mind also, IIRC his call was ~2300(?) M3 for 2017.
I laughed and dismissed. The number is so close that I find it hard to dismiss it as lucky-shot.
Mike Smith
Active Member
His number was always really low - I think he raised it from zero to around 2000 in very early 2017 when there's no way he could have know specifically what was going to happen. He's always just assumed something would go wrong (and it only takes one thing) and he got lucky in being fairly close to the exact number. I guess he just figured that's about how many you could make without significant automation or having to make some parts yourself.
For net cash burn we also need to factor in the expenses incurred Q1 with getting that number of cars out of the door. Fixed costs like salaries for manufacturing employees alone may take up a nice chunk and then there's bound to be some suppliers that want payment.
Looks like the first non employee delivery could have been taken already but the owner could not make the time. Missing opportunity to make history... Having the first non employee car could be nice for the value as well...
First Confirmed Non-Employee Delivery Of The Tesla Model 3
First Confirmed Non-Employee Delivery Of The Tesla Model 3
No surprise Tesla is the #1 if it comes to customer satisfaction.
This is one of the reasons why I am a true believer. With customers loving what they bought you get the strongest buy trigger for people who are undecided and waiting at the sideline.
The "I want this" sentiment is truly key and all the "rest" can be sorted out much more easily and that even if it takes way longer than expected.....
This is one of the reasons why I am a true believer. With customers loving what they bought you get the strongest buy trigger for people who are undecided and waiting at the sideline.
The "I want this" sentiment is truly key and all the "rest" can be sorted out much more easily and that even if it takes way longer than expected.....
You are right! And the record is broken
The site is scraping, but every 30 minutes, so it's up to date .)"Imagine what a, not at all impossible, average of 7k/week (340k/year) Model-3 deliveries would do to his model."Total 110k Model-3 cars in 2018 expected by him.
Also in that link :
“A stronger balance sheet, along with “larger numbers of the Model 3 in the hands of customers (for enjoyment) and OEMs (for tear-down) could drive a very sharp upward move in equity price,” wrote Jonas.
The analyst indicated that Tesla’s shares could rise another 71% over the next 12 months to reach $561
IMHO the takeaway from that is that even when just reaching this conservative average of 2300 cars per week in 2018, the SP (accoording to this analyst) could jump to $561.
And that for just reaching equal to MS/MX production levels !
Imagine what a, not at all impossible, average of 7k/week (340k/year) Model-3 deliveries would do to his model.
Would get us into TT007 / VA predicted territory
I accept your challenge:
18: 100k MS/MX + 350k M3 = $21.25b
19: 100k MS/MX + 500k M3 = $30.25B
20: 100k MS/MX + 1m M3 = $55B
22: 100k MS/MX + 1m M3 + 500k MY + 40k Semi = $81B
These assume $100k for MS/MX, $45k for M3, $40k for MY and $150k for Semi
And quite frankly, these numbers to me look extreme pie in the sky totally impossible. But that's not the point here. So...
Below is what the results looks like. The purple line is actual market caps for all manufacturers *except* TSLA. For TSLA the purple line is AVG(P/S) * Rev. Instead, TSLA has a P-MCAP or "Perceived MCAP". GP is based on 25% GM. The point here is to show the extreme SP divergence from the industry Tesla is in (AUTO). So, here's some data to throw at this thought/visualization experiment:
Tesla | REV | MCAP | GP | SP | P-MCAP
Tesla-18 21.25 9.52 5.31 850.00 142.53
Tesla-19 30.25 13.55 7.56 1,100.00 184.45
Tesla-20 55 24.63 13.75 1,500.00 251.52
Tesla-22 81 36.27 20.25 2,000.00 335.37
Now let's imagine what a "average of 7k/week (340k/year) Model-3 deliveries" would do... Adam Jonas thinks $561... and you think TT007 levels relative to AJ's model... so, $600 is noise to $561... and if it's going to break $700 then it might as well head for $1k right? so, $850 for a 2018 SP high. Now, 2018's over, and they grow 50% annually right?... so, damn, that's huge... 600k total deliveries in 2019!... that's going to jack that SP up right?... if it pops over $1k, then it will hit $1100... so, that's the 2019 target... ok, another successful year down... 2020... 1 freakin' million... are you kidding me?!?!... that's good for another 500 bucks... so $1500 it is for 2020... and then they just can't be stopped... new factories popping up MY, Semi... yeah... $2000 for 2022 it is... and here's what you got:
An auto company valued at $335B with the financials of Hyundai .
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He likely backchecks known suppliers and comes away with an equation for forward projections based on extrapolations from Model S and X ramps. So to the degree that the Model 3 ramp will be different than the others, I think his numbers represent a conservative floor.
It wasn't that long ago that Jonas was predicting 20 or 30K M3 for all of 2018. I think Tesla is going to beat that by a mile.
That the ideal ramp in last quarter did not occur due to problems encountered doesn't mean the ramp will be similarly slow in 2018.
You are/should be seeing evidence of that now.
Comment from someone on Electrek article:
Thats interesting but still very much hearsay... a friend of a friend.... hard to believe
Would love to be proven to be wrong though as it would mean at least 2.500 units/week. Given the low volume of cars we spotted with low VINS and a few hundred trapped at parking lots with unclear turnrate its hard to believe that they are at such a production rate.
However it still can be true if a jump just happened and given latest reports from Asian suppliers...
bdy0627
Active Member
I believe AJ originally projected based upon Tesla's execution history and the complexity of the Model 3 ramp. I thought his original projections were crazy low. However, he visited management sometime in late summer and then projected just a couple thousand. I was skeptical but it got my interest that he didn't project higher at that point because he appeared to have some strong intel from visiting with management. At this point, I view AJ as reasonably conservative. I will not ignore his projections personally. I believe 2018 will turn out to be better than his projections, but how much better is difficult to predict. EM's timelines are really not reasonably optimistic, they are wildly optimistic. I believe 2018 production will fall closer to AJ's than EM's projection. If it's somewhere in the middle, that's still a fantastic year.
bambam4171
Member
Yearly Tesla Semi Revenue To = $5 Billion? $10 Billion? | CleanTechnica
This could even be pessimistic given that the US market alone is probably close to 200k and I would think Europe is not far off and APAC probably much higher. Looks to me like just another production constraint Tesla product.
This could even be pessimistic given that the US market alone is probably close to 200k and I would think Europe is not far off and APAC probably much higher. Looks to me like just another production constraint Tesla product.
Props to Jonas for his revised estimates this past summer for 2017. But before people canonize him, please keep in mind that for his base case from December 2016 was that the Model 3 would not even launch until late 2018.
“We do not expect the Model 3 to be launched in 2017. While we cannot rule it out, we do not adopt as our base case a scenario in which Model 3 deliveries begin in 2017. We recognize that Tesla management has targeted a 2H launch date and that they will make every effort to satisfy high levels of preliminary demand and fill orders for the product as soon as possible. However, our base case is for a launch in late 2018. We have taken this conservative approach to allow for the probability that Tesla will choose to prioritize the quality, cost, performance and lifesaving technology of the vehicle. While Tesla still adopts a high level of vertical integration, we expect the Model 3 to rely even more extensively on 3rd party suppliers than the Model S, potentially increasing the scope of supply-related factors outside of the company’s control.”
Top Tesla analyst: 2017 is the year of the Model 3, but Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas explains why he thinks it will be late
He continues to take a very conservative approach to modeling the Model 3 ramp. His base case from last December was wildly pessimistic and wrong. His updated prediction this past summer was spot on for 2017. I am skeptical about his 2018 predictions.
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Jonathan Hewitt
Active Member
500+ in one day would explain why that supplier was shipping parts via air and doing lots of overtime according the to supplier 5,000/week rumor. Unfortunately that was a rumor too so having rumors supporting rumors doesn't make them true but moves it from "probably not true" to "could be true?"
And bumped up his estimate to 8k in Q4 at the employee delivery event. Here's to continued under-estimation!
That video is just awesome. Can't count how many 3s, S and Xs are parked there.
Makes me more positive that we see some kind of exponential curve but the real delivery needs to pick up dramatically to prove it.
Makes me more positive that we see some kind of exponential curve but the real delivery needs to pick up dramatically to prove it.
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