2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[dandurston]

Curious as to what other peoples' best guesses might be about how many Model 3s Tesla will be able to produce on a weekly basis at the start of 2018.

I think Tesla is running at ~500/wk now, but will shut to down in early January to make a week of changes/tweaks/upgrades after this burst. I expect they'll get running again at 500/wk around Jan 7, and finish January closer to 1000/wk. So my guess is 2k cars in January.

Then 1-2k/wk average in Feb, and an average of 2-3k/wk in March. That puts me at 2k / 6k / 10k for Jan / Feb / Mar for a Q1 total of 18k. Q2 guess is 40k.

 

[bdy0627]

Curious as to what other peoples' best guesses might be about how many Model 3s Tesla will be able to produce on a weekly basis at the start of 2018. Of course, this could ramp up pretty steeply in January and February, but I'm curious to hear peoples's thoughts about the starting point of model 3 weekly production going into 2018 instead of Q4 deliveries. 500? Educated guesses? Thoughts?

I think it will be more than 500 but less than 1000 per week at the start of 2018. There is a possibility it is still lower than 500 but no indication that I have seen that it will be higher than 1000. That may change quickly though in January.

 

[bdy0627]

I just saw Dandurston's post and basically agree with his projection.

 

[bdy0627]

What this means for the stock action in January is hard to say. Volatility, but rising?

 

[ZsoZso]

Volatility will most likely remain the keyword for a good while, all the way until the production has been going fast and smooth for a whole quarter and financial results (quarterly ER) prove it, not just tweets or press releases -- which would be Aug the earliest assuming no more delay in ramp-up (but could slip to Nov or even Feb'19).

I do not think the Q4 or even the Q1 Model 3 numbers will have lasting effect on the stock price, because the shorts will not start running for the hill until earnings show the impact (even if numbers are higher than expected) and the longs will not give up hope even if the numbers are lower than expected.

 

[tander]

I think Tesla is running at ~500/wk now, but will shut to down in early January to make a week of changes/tweaks/upgrades after this burst. I expect they'll get running again at 500/wk around Jan 7, and finish January closer to 1000/wk. So my guess is 2k cars in January.

Then 1-2k/wk average in Feb, and an average of 2-3k/wk in March. That puts me at 2k / 6k / 10k for Jan / Feb / Mar for a Q1 total of 18k. Q2 guess is 40k.

That sounds reasonable, but according to the last conference call they were confidently expecting to be doing thousands a week by or close to the end of the year iirc. Is it really that far behind? They always talk about how the ramp by definition is exponential, I wonder when the curve will start to "go vertical". If I understood the conference call the only limitation now was supposed be batteries. My barely educated guess or more of a hope is that say they are doing 500 a week right now, well maybe the jump from 500 to 1000 week happens in one week, and maybe 2000 the week after that. If batteries are the only limiter, and they are 500 a week this week, how much improvement per week is possible/reasonable? Dan's sounds much more reasonable. This is really hard because it seems like there is so little hard evidence to go off, pretty amazing that with 35k employees the ramp isn't being live-streamed and blogged piece by piece.

 

[Sancho]

I do not think the Q4 or even the Q1 Model 3 numbers will have lasting effect on the stock price, because the shorts will not start running for the hill until earnings show the impact.

My bet is on the stock price increasing rapidly well before earnings are proven. If in March Tesla announces:

1) ramp is now 5,000 per week
2) highly confident of 10,000 per week before Q3
3) guidance of profitability in Q3

Then what keeps the stock down? A loss in Q1 and Q2 is totally irrelevant. There will be some shorts who are so blinded by their own anti-Tesla dogma that they will go down with their trade, but any smart shorts should start covering, and longs should be very emboldened to double down.

 

[WarpedOne]

Then what keeps the stock down?

Irrationality.
The world will never run out of it.

 

[wnorris]

2) highly confident of 10,000 per week before Q3

My gut is saying that we will likely not see 10k until '19. At the current pace Tesla is moving with the Model 3 ramp it seems unreasonable to believe they can do this by Q3. They will reach the 10k mark, but it will take additional investment and some logistics work to make happen.

I would love to be wrong on this one, but as an organization they are not moving as quickly as Elon has projected.

 

[RobStark]

Bracing for EV shift, NGK Spark Plug ignites all solid-state battery quest

 

[Hogfighter]

My hope is for 5,000/week by end of March. Then profitable in Q2.

 

[bdy0627]

My hope is for 5,000/week by end of March. Then profitable in Q2.

Yep, seconded. I do not think the market will wait until the financials show the benefits of massive Model 3 production to vote the stock up. I think the market will anticipate that as production increases. One of two things will then happen: 1. The stock could very well go up so much before Q2 ER that it overshoots and the market sells the news, or 2. The stock, with its volatility, goes up and then down already prior to Q2 ER, which then propels it up again. The writing should very much be on the wall by Q2 ER, but I don't think the stock will be anywhere near where it is now.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

^ Thirded.

 

[AlMc]

My hope is for 5,000/week by end of March. Then profitable in Q2.

Your 'aspirational Elon Musk badge' is now being prepared for shipment. You should see it soon. (j/k).


*I hope so too*

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

I think Tesla is running at ~500/wk now, but will shut to down in early January to make a week of changes/tweaks/upgrades after this burst. I expect they'll get running again at 500/wk around Jan 7, and finish January closer to 1000/wk. So my guess is 2k cars in January.

Then 1-2k/wk average in Feb, and an average of 2-3k/wk in March. That puts me at 2k / 6k / 10k for Jan / Feb / Mar for a Q1 total of 18k. Q2 guess is 40k.

I don't think that the numbers we're seeing support 500/week.

 

[mongo]

I don't think that the numbers we're seeing support 500/week.

Depending on which hearsay you prefer, they might be there...
Comment section on Electrek article.

 

[Mkorpal]

I don't think that the numbers we're seeing support 500/week.

Which side do you see it? We just got pretty good video evidence of roughly 500 cars on Tesla's lot. They weren't there a few weeks ago, and we know many have left in the meantime. I feel like 500 this week seems like a decent guess, and a they have a full week that they could cram in to hit the target still.

 

[Drax7]

The lot at Fremont went from practically empty to 500ish model 3s within a week,
Hence 500/ week seems a reasonable assumption.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Which side do you see it? We just got pretty good video evidence of roughly 500 cars on Tesla's lot. They weren't there a few weeks ago, and we know many have left in the meantime. I feel like 500 this week seems like a decent guess, and a they have a full week that they could cram in to hit the target still.

I see it low side. I'm thinking more like 250. Suggests improvement, but not yet resolution.

We don't know _why_ the cars are on the lot. We need to see the activity along the pipeline.

I think that at 500 per week, we'd have been seeing some more configuration activity and reports of deliveries. Configuration requests and orders from suppliers anticipate production. They do have to get cars to stores, but Tesla doesn't have that many stores.

For comparison, in 2013Q1, Tesla sold 4,900 Model S. That's a little over 400 per week. That was an active quarter. Granted, employee deliveries are under NDA and there are many more Tesla owners now, so we'd expect a lower enthusiast quotient, but I still think that with the excitement around Model 3 there'd be more stories.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I see it low side. I'm thinking more like 250. Suggests improvement, but not yet resolution.

We don't know _why_ the cars are on the lot. We need to see the activity along the pipeline.

I think that at 500 per week, we'd have been seeing some more configuration activity and reports of deliveries. Configuration requests and orders from suppliers anticipate production. They do have to get cars to stores, but Tesla doesn't have that many stores.

For comparison, in 2013Q1, Tesla sold 4,900 Model S. That's a little over 400 per week. That was an active quarter. Granted, employee deliveries are under NDA and there are many more Tesla owners now, so we'd expect a lower enthusiast quotient, but I still think that with the excitement around Model 3 there'd be more stories.

The enthusiasm/pictures/videos will likely increase in the coming days as the cars on the parking lot are delivered, agreed?