It is weird that the enthusiasm is quite low around there. It seems to be the opposite of the S launch. Maybe with the S, they put an NDA to prevent problems from leaking, but highly encouraged positives to help drive demand when they needed it. With the 3, they seem to have no NDA, since there weren't any major flaws to cover, but asked employees to keep quiet to keep demand down
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It is weird that the enthusiasm is quite low around there. It seems to be the opposite of the S launch. Maybe with the S, they put an NDA to prevent problems from leaking, but highly encouraged positives to help drive demand when they needed it. With the 3, they seem to have no NDA, since there weren't any major flaws to cover, but asked employees to keep quiet to keep demand down
Looking at the two drone flyover videos taken in the past two days, looks like ~ 1,000 Model 3s with some turnover. Based on this, production rate could easily be at 1,000/week. Deliveries likely lagging production. Still not clear if production will shut down after today and resume in January. If so, the number of stored Model 3s should shrink as deliveries continue to the end of the year. If not, expect accumulation of more Model 3s until delivery rate catches up with ever increasing production rate. Looks like the steep part of the ramp is happening.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
The anti-sell is temporary until production rate ramps to meet run-rate demand... give it six to nine months.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
I did a quick compilation of the VINs that are being delivered to non-customers from this spreadhseet to get a sense of # of deliveries
In the Delivery tab, there are 22 entries showing Dec delivery, VINs ranging from 1200s to 2500s. Assuming that Tesla is pulling the cars from the built queue and delivering them randomly as far as VIN goes, I think the middle point in the VIN range could be a useful measure of how many cars are delivered, and the low point could indicate that all the cars up to that VIN have been delivered. The VINs are all reported at granularity level of 100s. The average is ~1660, and median is ~1550. I would put the middle point at ~1600. Based on this I think EOY cumulative delivery at least 1200, and likely 1600. Removing 220 deliveries from Q3, this puts Q4 at 1000-1400 deliveries.
For production we need to add the cars that are still sitting in Fremont parking lot. Based on photos I think it's safe to estimate ~500, so Q4 production estimate is ~1500-1900 (or round up to 2000 for the heck of it). I think this could be conservative, if the S curve is going vertical, the last week in Dec could produce a lot more than the previous week(s).
In the Delivery tab, there are 22 entries showing Dec delivery, VINs ranging from 1200s to 2500s. Assuming that Tesla is pulling the cars from the built queue and delivering them randomly as far as VIN goes, I think the middle point in the VIN range could be a useful measure of how many cars are delivered, and the low point could indicate that all the cars up to that VIN have been delivered. The VINs are all reported at granularity level of 100s. The average is ~1660, and median is ~1550. I would put the middle point at ~1600. Based on this I think EOY cumulative delivery at least 1200, and likely 1600. Removing 220 deliveries from Q3, this puts Q4 at 1000-1400 deliveries.
For production we need to add the cars that are still sitting in Fremont parking lot. Based on photos I think it's safe to estimate ~500, so Q4 production estimate is ~1500-1900 (or round up to 2000 for the heck of it). I think this could be conservative, if the S curve is going vertical, the last week in Dec could produce a lot more than the previous week(s).
You are making a leap of faith by assuming logical behavior from the market in general and TSLA shorts in particular
bdy0627
Active Member
Yes, it is just my guess, and as we all know, predicting the movement of this stock is essentially impossible in the short term. I think as we get out into the 6 month timeframe, it is a little more predictable at times. Quite frankly, I thought the market already would have sent it up higher than it is now.You are making a leap of faith by assuming logical behavior from the market in general and TSLA shorts in particular
larmor
Active Member
The market is in a giving mood, and offering an entry point, which will not be available shortly. What do i know but other momentum stocks, which FWIW were way 'overvalued' even at their low entry point a few years to months ago...
The anti-sell to " sell " strategy must be well thought out. Because once people make up their mind, it's hard to change it. So for now it's ok to anti-sell as most people are not really aware of the M3, not so many people have it etc.
But if the shorts can create some *sugar* storm around some issues with the M3, before Tesla decide to really market the M3 then it can be a problem.
Amber Heard and billionaire Elon Musk share a steamy kiss | Daily Mail Online
Well I guess the ramp is going well?
Well I guess the ramp is going well?
dc_h
Active Member
MOD:
Let's keep the tabloid pap where it belongs, please.
Let's keep the tabloid pap where it belongs, please.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Wonder if they took the pack out to save weight? I am conflicted, I like the joke, but hate the waste. It does seem as if they could have sent something else, such as scientific monitoring equipment? Or some hardware they could use once people start going to Mars?
What you don't think Musk would use his Roadster to run through all of the tunnels they make?
Insane amount of marketing value.
Or possibly auction it off and donate the proceeds to relief agencies helping the victims of the fires or Maria?
candersoh, 4 minutes ago
When i received my new roadster back in 2011 i overheard someone say..."what a waste. couldn't he have donated that money to a needy charity, how selfish."
My bad, obviously the wrong season/time of year to consider anyone less fortunate or who's had misfortune.
When i received my new roadster back in 2011 i overheard someone say..."what a waste. couldn't he have donated that money to a needy charity, how selfish."
My bad, obviously the wrong season/time of year to consider anyone less fortunate or who's had misfortune.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
IF they do something rational like auction off roadster for charity and send scientific equipment instead then it is not a joke nor a publicity stunt they can milk for 10's of millions maybe hundreds of millions in free advertising.
You can still give to charity and send scientific equipment in subsequent missions which are less likely to blow up.
You can still give to charity and send scientific equipment in subsequent missions which are less likely to blow up.
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