Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
Status
Not open for further replies.
The Seeking Alpha Tesla 4th Quarter earnings call transcript is the 'official' transcript of the call on the internet. It is being directly linked to by most media organizations including Nasdaq and CNBC, and the one that comes up when any investor searches google for it.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/404...-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single

It containts the following (I believe intentional) errors:


Regarding the need to raise capital for the launch of Model 3:

Seeking Alpha transcribes:
"According to our financial plan, capital needs to be raised for the Model 3"
-Elon Musk

Musk actually says:
"According to our financial plan, no capital needs to be raised for the Model 3"

Here are some examples of articles based entirely on this misquote.

Tesla, Inc: Likely to Raise Capital Soon -- The Motley Fool

Tesla tumbles as Goldman Sachs downgrades stock on Model 3 concerns

Tesla Plans 3 More Gigafactories


Regarding the likelihood of UAW unionizing Freemont:

Seeking Alpha transcribes:
"This is likely to occur"
-Elon Musk

Musk actually says:
"I don't think this is likely to occur"

Thanks for pointing this out! I've adjusted the Motley Fool article for the correct quote. Fortunately, the article was entirely based on the actual quote since I was listening to the call live. I just went to Seeking Alpha to grab the quote word-for-word. I did read it over but my eyes glossed over the word "no" being missing; probably because in my head I already knew what Musk was saying since I listened to the call myself, so I just didn't catch it. Fortunately, this changes nothing about the surrounding arguments nor the thesis of the article. But it is a good distinction to get right, that's for sure.

Tesla, Inc: Likely to Raise Capital Soon -- The Motley Fool

As always, my goal is to produce quality content. In the future, if you find an error it would be great you could reach out to me on Twitter (via message preferably) ASAP as this could help correct the issue right away so more people won't have to be misinformed by the error.

Normally, I try to rely on Cap IQ transcripts of Tesla's earnings call, but it wasn't available yet. Lesson learned though. I'll be triple checking Seeking Alpha transcripts from here on out. And I'll continue going to Cap IQ first.

You guys are awesome. Trust me, I hate making mistakes!
 
There absolutely is cost associated with AP software. The problem is that its a fixed cost, and not variable per unit sold. So that cost is recognized as its incurred, but because the software was not delivered, they could not recognize the corresponding option revenue.
That cost is classified as R&D and does not affect COGS or GM. Like most tech companies, Tesla chooses to expense all R&D as it occurs. Other auto companies capitalize R&D and amortize it over the expected number of units sold as part of COGS.
 
  • Informative
  • Like
Reactions: GSP and techmaven
Another brilliant "analysis" from Colin Langan at UBS (Sell rating, PT of $160):

He conveniently overlooks that more than 95% of EV charging occurs at home, which has an average drive time of 0 minutes.

UBS predicts Tesla will need to spend $8 billion to expand its Supercharger network
Tesla will need billions to make US Supercharger network compete with gas stations, says analyst

Robert Ferris of CNBC said:
However, in further comments sent to CNBC, Langan noted that only 47 percent of Americans have dedicated parking for a charger, and those numbers are lower in Europe and China.

Langan also said that even customers who generally charge at home may want some sort of backup while on the road.

Edit: I have a garage, but it's full of stuff. I run an extension cord (a no no) to charge while parked on my driveway. Mostly getting by with free charge at work. Even with occasional charging at home, my tripper trips more frequently now, even at the lowest charge rate.
People parking on driveway is a very common sight here. Then, there is a huge majority that park on streets or in parking garages.

Edit2:
geneclean55 said:
So the UBS guy was probably getting savaged after his initial 'note' and felt compelled to clarify.
Tell me about it. Wanna say anything negative about Tesla? Be ready to be attacked by angry mob.
 
Last edited:
  • Funny
Reactions: Jonathan Hewitt
@mmd

Tesla does not need to monopolize the land transportation market. Many in large cities will continue to use public transportation or hail rides. The 47% with home charging capability are more than sufficient for Tesla. Langan initially made a poorly informed comment about an imagined need to unreasonably saturate the country with charging stations. More than one person must have reminded him of the ease with which home charging is done. So he later tried to rationalize in an apparent attempt to save his credibility.

Don't be surprised if the number of electric car owners soon skyrockets, as Model 3 owners set aside FUD and educate their friends about what’s actually involved in owning one. These silly articles sourced with ignorant analyst comments will then come to a screeching halt.
 
Last edited:
Edit: I have a garage, but it's full of stuff. I run an extension cord (a no no) to charge while parked on my driveway. Mostly getting by with free charge at work. Even with occasional charging at home, my tripper trips more frequently now, even at the lowest charge rate.
People parking on driveway is a very common sight here. Then, there is a huge majority that park on streets or in parking garages.

Here is a link to information on properly installing an electrical outlet in your garage for charging a Tesla car: https://www.tesla.com/sites/default/files/downloads/US/universalmobileconnector_nema_14-50.pdf

I had a brand new home built last year. I showed the document to the builder who then installed the proper wiring and socket. It’s a 220-240-volt outlet connected to a circuit breaker that conforms.

You may want to hire an electrician to similarly set up your garage. :)
 
Last edited:
Once Tesla has 40% market share in the USA dominated by those with access to dedicated parking then $8B will be a drop in the bucket.

No need to worry about conquering the most difficult to acquire customers. Like middle class folks in New York City.
I would also like to see Tesla's FSD being used to enable city folks having their cars automatically park themselves at remote locations and charge themselves also with the robot snake. Tesla could buy some cheaper real estate away from the city center, and setup these Tesla Garages, and charge people for monthly parking/charging.
 
Tell me about it. Wanna say anything negative about Tesla? Be ready to be attacked by angry mob.
It's more like make a weak argument to support your short position and expect to be criticized.

I find it ironic that Langan claims Tesla needs to spend $8B on superchargers while other shorts claim that GM/Mercedes/BMW/etc. don't need to spend a dime on high speed charging because public and corporate entities (Chargepoint, EVgo) are going to build it for them. Which is it?
 
Edit: I have a garage, but it's full of stuff. I run an extension cord (a no no) to charge while parked on my driveway. Mostly getting by with free charge at work. Even with occasional charging at home, my tripper trips more frequently now, even at the lowest charge rate.

If you are tripping something is wrong. I have been charging my EV on level 2 for 7 years now and have never tripped.
 
Tesla will need billions to make US Supercharger network compete with gas stations, says analyst



Edit: I have a garage, but it's full of stuff. I run an extension cord (a no no) to charge while parked on my driveway. Mostly getting by with free charge at work. Even with occasional charging at home, my tripper trips more frequently now, even at the lowest charge rate.
People parking on driveway is a very common sight here. Then, there is a huge majority that park on streets or in parking garages.

Edit2:

Tell me about it. Wanna say anything negative about Tesla? Be ready to be attacked by angry mob.

By the time EVs reach anywhere close to 47% penetration (the garage market), I can guarantee you that monumental shifts in public demand, street-level charging solutions, and autonomous self-charging will have completely solved the garage problem. By the time EVs will come close anywhere close to 47% penetration, gas car drivers (especially in rural areas where garages are extremely easy to come by) will be scrambling for places to re-fuel as razor-thin profit margin gas stations eat each other up over a greatly dwindling number of customers.

In the late 1800s / early 1900s, the charging problem was already solved (vast majority of cars on the roads were EVs), so any thought that charging will in any way hold back the EV revolution especially given upcoming autonomous tech is absolutely silly and laughable.
 
Thanks for pointing this out! I've adjusted the Motley Fool article for the correct quote. Fortunately, the article was entirely based on the actual quote since I was listening to the call live. I just went to Seeking Alpha to grab the quote word-for-word. I did read it over but my eyes glossed over the word "no" being missing; probably because in my head I already knew what Musk was saying since I listened to the call myself, so I just didn't catch it. Fortunately, this changes nothing about the surrounding arguments nor the thesis of the article. But it is a good distinction to get right, that's for sure.

Tesla, Inc: Likely to Raise Capital Soon -- The Motley Fool

As always, my goal is to produce quality content. In the future, if you find an error it would be great you could reach out to me on Twitter (via message preferably) ASAP as this could help correct the issue right away so more people won't have to be misinformed by the error.

Normally, I try to rely on Cap IQ transcripts of Tesla's earnings call, but it wasn't available yet. Lesson learned though. I'll be triple checking Seeking Alpha transcripts from here on out. And I'll continue going to Cap IQ first.

You guys are awesome. Trust me, I hate making mistakes!
SA is so anti Tesla so why you would even get any source from there is beyond me. If it can be misconstrued or have "accidental" errors or given no benefit doubts with SA articles will happen to a Tesla article.
Lesson learned would be to say you'll never use them as an reference. Tripple checking won't be enough as one time you thought to double check them already.
 
Here is a link to information on properly installing an electrical outlet in your garage for charging a Tesla car: https://www.tesla.com/sites/default/files/downloads/US/universalmobileconnector_nema_14-50.pdf

I had a brand new home built last year. I showed the document to the builder who then installed the proper wiring and socket. It’s a 220-240-volt outlet connected to a circuit breaker that conforms.

You may want to hire an electrician to similarly set up your garage. :)
Just bought a house and part of my renovation list is to install 2 240V lines in the garage. Don't have a Tesla yet but the future is obviously EV.
 
Another brilliant "analysis" from Colin Langan at UBS (Sell rating, PT of $160):

He conveniently overlooks that more than 95% of EV charging occurs at home, which has an average drive time of 0 minutes.

UBS predicts Tesla will need to spend $8 billion to expand its Supercharger network

TMC predicts oil companies will need to spend $320 Billion to expand their gasoline station network to compete with Tesla home charging!

BREAKING NEWS!!!

Utilizing Math pioneered by savant UBS analyst Colin Langan, the quants at TMC have calculated the Tesla Killer Advantage over the current, antiquated local gas stations when it comes to "fueling" vehicles. If the time to travel to the average gas station is 4 minutes, while the time to travel to your garage is 1 second, then Tesla home charging is 240 times more efficient/convenient than gas stations.

Rex Tillerson, former Exxon CEO and current MIA Secretary of State, when asked to comment said, "Hell yea, that's why I took this gig, so I could divest myself of all that oil stock. You know how expensive it is to put in fuel tanks in every home in America? Hell, in some states to they don't even let you pump your own gas, so that means having an attendant sleeping in a tent on your lawn."

UBS analyst, Colin Langan, when asked to confirm the validity of the math, said, rather heatedly, "That comparison is specious....what person in their right mind would fuel at home, while sleeping in their bed? What self respecting Michigander would miss out on refueling in sub-zero weather? Can you buy Powerball Tickets or Kool Menthol cigarettes at home.....? I didn't think so! This whole home fueling thing is a fad, brought on by haters unfamiliar with the pleasure of visits to modern day convenience Meccas/gas stations. Have you tried the Sausage Biscuit Sandwich at Quick Trip? I don't think you know anything about things you pretend to "analyze". $320 Billion is Absurd!.....Are you gunning for my job?"

Stay tuned as Colin, Mark Spiegel, Steve Bannon and The Entire CNBC morning show get together for a panel discussion on creative uses for extrapolating numbers with no relationship to facts or statistical significance.
 
Last edited:
Status
Not open for further replies.