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2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

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This is true. Reservations opened a few days ago for people who've previously shown interest. The number of reservations *may* have hit 1200, assuming the reservation numbers people recieve are accurate.

Here's the page for reserving: https://bilkjop.audi.no

The information about what the final product will look like is rudimentry at best, so there could easily be a lot of cancellations once more is known about specs and pricing. Some on the Norwegian EV forum have also reserved both the Audi and the Jaguar I-Pace, and are planning on cancelling one of them.
 
Amazon Created Team Focused on Driverless Vehicle Technology -- Sources

Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) has created a team focused on driverless-vehicle technology to help navigate the retail giant's role in the shake-up of transportation, according to people briefed on the matter.

Amazon (AMZN) quietly formed the team, which has comprised about a dozen employees, more than a year ago as part of its broader ambition to transport more of its goods itself. For now, Amazon(AMZN) doesn't intend to build a fleet of vehicles, according to these people. Instead, the team serves as an in-house think tank to figure out how to leverage autonomous vehicles.

The initiative, still in its early phases, could help the Seattle-based company overcome one of its biggest logistical complications and costs: delivering packages quickly. Amazon(AMZN)could use autonomous vehicles including trucks, forklifts and drones to move goods. In addition, driverless cars could play a broader role in the future of last-mile delivery, enabling easier package drop-offs, experts say.

 
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Actually quite well written. A must read for any investor in TSLA. Although I disagree with many of the assumptions, at least it was written by an adult.
Agreed, Hog.

That's among the best bearish articles I've read, bar none.

Its wrong, for all the reasons we agree on, but at least it makes a cogent argument without resorting to flippant data twisting.
 
TE US market share - 42.6%. Clearly struggling in "crowded field with a lot of competitors and solutions"...

Electrical energy storage (EES) is the holy grail which will solve the intermittency problem with wind and solar thereby allowing the promise of "free fuel forever" to be more widely implemented. Many large, well-capitalized companies have been pursuing the prize for decades.
Previously I referenced AES to illustrate that point: "AES Energy Storage has a total of 432 MW of interconnected energy storage, equivalent to 864 MW of flexible resource, in operation, construction or late stage development in seven countries," The AES Corporation - Our Business - Overview , including a 28MW grid stability resource in northern Chile that has been operating since 2009.

"One of the most widely used methods is based on the form of energy stored in the system ... as shown in Fig. 3, which can be categorized into:
  • mechanical (pumped hydroelectric storage, compressed air energy storage and flywheels),
  • electrochemical (conventional rechargeable batteries and flow batteries),
  • electrical (capacitors, supercapacitors and superconducting magnetic energy storage),
  • thermochemical (solar fuels),
  • chemical (hydrogen storage with fuel cells) and
  • thermal energy storage (sensible heat storage and latent heat storage)."
Overview of current development in electrical energy storage technologies and the application potential in power system operation

To put into perspective your sarcasm about my statement that you keep quoting, Tesla announced it was going to enter the EES market in April 2015 with an offering in one of the six above categories, using one, or possibly two chemistries, for Li-ion rechargeable batteries.

Yes, TE completed several large installations in 4Q16 over 18 months after its initial announcement, but GM% for TE in 4Q16 was deeply in the red. TE has had successes in California, aided largely by SGIP and the connections of former regulators at AMS. Whether TE can parlay that into penetration of EES markets in other states and countries will depend on execution over the next several quarters. Brand cachet is meaningless in EES markets; it's primarily about being the lowest cost, reliable provider. Hopefully with earnings in about a week, Tesla will clarify if it is achieving the 30%+ cell cost saving projected now that the GF is operational.
 
Actually quite well written. A must read for any investor in TSLA. Although I disagree with many of the assumptions, at least it was written by an adult.
Yes, written by an adult, but a lazy one. As I understand it, Tesla earns the kind of profits on every "$100,000 car they sell to rich people" that other manufacturers would kill for. However, they are recycling those profits into company infrastructure to make the next big leap, which is the Model 3. Why is that so difficult to figure out? Or am I mistaken?
Robin
 
Electrical energy storage (EES) is the holy grail which will solve the intermittency problem with wind and solar thereby allowing the promise of "free fuel forever" to be more widely implemented. Many large, well-capitalized companies have been pursuing the prize for decades.
Previously I referenced AES to illustrate that point: "AES Energy Storage has a total of 432 MW of interconnected energy storage, equivalent to 864 MW of flexible resource, in operation, construction or late stage development in seven countries," The AES Corporation - Our Business - Overview , including a 28MW grid stability resource in northern Chile that has been operating since 2009.

"One of the most widely used methods is based on the form of energy stored in the system ... as shown in Fig. 3, which can be categorized into:
  • mechanical (pumped hydroelectric storage, compressed air energy storage and flywheels),
  • electrochemical (conventional rechargeable batteries and flow batteries),
  • electrical (capacitors, supercapacitors and superconducting magnetic energy storage),
  • thermochemical (solar fuels),
  • chemical (hydrogen storage with fuel cells) and
  • thermal energy storage (sensible heat storage and latent heat storage)."
Overview of current development in electrical energy storage technologies and the application potential in power system operation

To put into perspective your sarcasm about my statement that you keep quoting, Tesla announced it was going to enter the EES market in April 2015 with an offering in one of the six above categories, using one, or possibly two chemistries, for Li-ion rechargeable batteries.

Yes, TE completed several large installations in 4Q16 over 18 months after its initial announcement, but GM% for TE in 4Q16 was deeply in the red. TE has had successes in California, aided largely by SGIP and the connections of former regulators at AMS. Whether TE can parlay that into penetration of EES markets in other states and countries will depend on execution over the next several quarters. Brand cachet is meaningless in EES markets; it's primarily about being the lowest cost, reliable provider. Hopefully with earnings in about a week, Tesla will clarify if it is achieving the 30%+ cell cost saving projected now that the GF is operational.

For a perspective on the "multiple solutions" and on the basis of my sarcasm toward this exaggeration, the Li-Ion solution is the only one that matters in practical terms, as it dominates the market of ES and inherently will continue doing so as prices drop. In Q4 2016 Li-Ion BES represented 98.4% of the ES market, up from 96.9% QoQ (Based on GTM US Energy Monitor linked up-thread)

snap1.png
 
For the most part, I get the same feeling as you: Tesla is not as close as we hope and they say they are. However, my (admittedly very limited) knowledge of neural net processing leads me to wonder if progress toward level 5 autonomy will be like an S-curve. It's slow in the beginning as data is collected and the algorithms improve, but then improvements begin to rapidly accelerate. In that case, we may be deceiving ourselves by trying to linearly extrapolate Tesla's current progress instead of recognizing that we're just early in the S-curve.

I was shocked at first on learning AP2 was complete with only one camera so far, awhile back. As more inputs are added for analysis by the home computer analyzing the data and formulating the software, your supposition will be confirmed IMHO. There are a lot more cameras alone, neglecting ultrasound, etc.
 
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Yes, written by an adult, but a lazy one. As I understand it, Tesla earns the kind of profits on every "$100,000 car they sell to rich people" that other manufacturers would kill for. However, they are recycling those profits into company infrastructure to make the next big leap, which is the Model 3. Why is that so difficult to figure out? Or am I mistaken?
Robin
Silly, re-investing your profits into expansion of your business is called "Cash burn" :D
 
Has anyone done any work around the theoretical limit of Gigafactory 1 output?

For example, can Tesla ramp it up to 10-20 million cars per year just by adding lines and speeding them up?

What is the limiting factor?

I know that the current output target is 150kWh/year by 2020 and that it makes business sense to build gigafactories in other continents instead of pushing GF1 to its theoretical limit.

But if Tesla had to stick to one gigafactory, what's the max output they can achieve?
Currently announced output is 105gwh per year. That will increase somewhat as battery chemistry improves. They bought enough land at that site to double the,originally planned size.

No and no!
Hopefully with earnings in about a week, Tesla will clarify if it is achieving the 30%+ cell cost saving projected now that the GF is operational.
They already did that, more than 35%
 
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