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2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

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Amazon Created Team Focused on Driverless Vehicle Technology -- Sources

Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) has created a team focused on driverless-vehicle technology to help navigate the retail giant's role in the shake-up of transportation, according to people briefed on the matter.

Amazon (AMZN) quietly formed the team, which has comprised about a dozen employees, more than a year ago as part of its broader ambition to transport more of its goods itself. For now, Amazon(AMZN) doesn't intend to build a fleet of vehicles, according to these people. Instead, the team serves as an in-house think tank to figure out how to leverage autonomous vehicles.

The initiative, still in its early phases, could help the Seattle-based company overcome one of its biggest logistical complications and costs: delivering packages quickly. Amazon(AMZN)could use autonomous vehicles including trucks, forklifts and drones to move goods. In addition, driverless cars could play a broader role in the future of last-mile delivery, enabling easier package drop-offs, experts say.
Of course, pizza delivery by car is much easier than by Blue Origin rocket...
 
Tesla updating its charging station forecasts, interestingly no mention of Supercharger V3 technology...

You could say they sort of hinted at it: "Tesla will continue to lead the industry with the fastest, most advanced charging technology in the world and continue to build the only cars capable of leveraging that power."
 
Looks like we missed the tweet on this. Driver and passengers were all safe. Worth a tweet.
Tesla owner asks for $1 million after Model X caught on fire in crash and Falcon Wing doors wouldn’t open

Dang, videos like this scare the crap out of me. While the statistics still show the rate of fires in Tesla are very low, seeing a car burn into NOTHING, while the ICE counterpart is still largely intact makes me realize that there is SOME truth to the whole burning batteries story the haters like to push. Also, it is fairly obvious here that the X caught on fire and then it spread to the Focus (one picture shows the X consumed in fire while the Focus barely has a fire at the very front of the car).

Just like everything else, the truth is somewhere in the middle. While the batteries are not nearly as dangerous as the haters like to tell everyone, they also aren't nearly as safe as we Tesla fans want to believe. Tesla cars that catch on fire almost always burn completely with nothing like but a frame when the fire is extinguished. Had those people not been able to exit the car, there was absolutely ZERO chance of survival. That statement may also be true of the Ford Focus.

I sure wish we could get better stats on car fires - especially by model year. If most ICE car fires are in cars 5 year or older, then that cannot be compared with the rate of fires in Tesla's cars since Tesla doesn't have cars over 5 years old yet (the Roadster withstanding since there simply aren't enough to really gather meaningful stats from).

I have been looking to buy my wife, and eventually my daughter a Tesla for a couple of years now. But, I can't lie. Videos like the one in the link give me great pause.
 
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Electrical energy storage (EES) is the holy grail which will solve the intermittency problem with wind and solar thereby allowing the promise of "free fuel forever" to be more widely implemented. Many large, well-capitalized companies have been pursuing the prize for decades.
Previously I referenced AES to illustrate that point: "AES Energy Storage has a total of 432 MW of interconnected energy storage, equivalent to 864 MW of flexible resource, in operation, construction or late stage development in seven countries," The AES Corporation - Our Business - Overview , including a 28MW grid stability resource in northern Chile that has been operating since 2009.

"One of the most widely used methods is based on the form of energy stored in the system ... as shown in Fig. 3, which can be categorized into:
  • mechanical (pumped hydroelectric storage, compressed air energy storage and flywheels),
  • electrochemical (conventional rechargeable batteries and flow batteries),
  • electrical (capacitors, supercapacitors and superconducting magnetic energy storage),
  • thermochemical (solar fuels),
  • chemical (hydrogen storage with fuel cells) and
  • thermal energy storage (sensible heat storage and latent heat storage)."
Overview of current development in electrical energy storage technologies and the application potential in power system operation

To put into perspective your sarcasm about my statement that you keep quoting, Tesla announced it was going to enter the EES market in April 2015 with an offering in one of the six above categories, using one, or possibly two chemistries, for Li-ion rechargeable batteries.

Yes, TE completed several large installations in 4Q16 over 18 months after its initial announcement, but GM% for TE in 4Q16 was deeply in the red. TE has had successes in California, aided largely by SGIP and the connections of former regulators at AMS. Whether TE can parlay that into penetration of EES markets in other states and countries will depend on execution over the next several quarters. Brand cachet is meaningless in EES markets; it's primarily about being the lowest cost, reliable provider. Hopefully with earnings in about a week, Tesla will clarify if it is achieving the 30%+ cell cost saving projected now that the GF is operational.


Here are couple more remarks on the quoted post explaining my sarcasm on statement about "crowded field with a lot of competitors and solutions" and why I believe it is exaggerated and misleading.

  • Regarding the "Holly Grail" and your emphasis on ES resolving the intermittency of renewable generation, this is just part of the picture. Another major part is that ES is infinitely more suited to the Grid ancillary services, including frequency support, due to the speed of the response and accuracy of control which simply can't be matched by any conventional power generation. In fact the largest BES installation outside of California is by RTO PJM. These installations were completed (a number of them by AES) some time ago, when cost of BES was significantly higher, without any SGIP benefits. Recently, however, the bulk of installation shifted toward the support of renewables because of the higher ROI they offer. This why your supposition that market might saturate/shrink once California needs associated with accommodation of renewable generation and potential expiration of the SGIP benefits is simply not accurate.

  • Regarding the "many large, well-capitalized companies that have been pursuing the prize for decades", I do not see this as a limiting factor on the growth of TE business whatsoever. First the market for TE will in all likelihood outpace combined global production capacity of BES. Secondly, just in 2 years since it's forming TE made huge gains in market share, and in fact, *eclipsed* installed capacity of the one of the largest "well-capitalized companies", AE which is in the business of BES for 9 years

    In January of 2016 total AES installed capacity was 166MW. Using the average Energy/Power ratio for all BES projects installed in US in Q4 2015, 1.63 (229.9MWh / 140.8MW= 1.63), this translates to a total installed capacity of 271MWh. Since the average Energy/Power ratio is on the rise due to increase in BES installations used to support renewables, this calculation is conservative in a sense that it overestimates total installed MWh capacity by AES. This compares to a total installed TE capacity of 398MWh. So in just two years TE installed capacity exceeded 9-year capacity of the of the BES market leader, AES by a significant 46%: 398MWh vs. 271MWh.
 
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Dang, videos like this scare the crap out of me. While the statistics still show the rate of fires in Tesla are very low, seeing a car burn into NOTHING, while the ICE counterpart is still largely intact makes me realize that there is SOME truth to the whole burning batteries story the haters like to push. Also, it is fairly obvious here that the X caught on fire and then it spread to the Focus (one picture shows the X consumed in fire while the Focus barely has a fire at the very front of the car).

Just like everything else, the truth is somewhere in the middle. While the batteries are not nearly as dangerous as the haters like to tell everyone, they also aren't nearly as safe as we Tesla fans want to believe. Tesla cars that catch on fire almost always burn completely with nothing like but a frame when the fire is extinguished. Had those people not been able to exit the car, there was absolutely ZERO chance of survival. That statement may also be true of the Ford Focus.
The degree to which the car disappears has nothing to do with the batteries. All aluminium cars are reduced to a pile of ash, with a few steel parts mixed in.

Look for instance at what happens to a new Ford pickup: Ford F-Series Super Duty prototype reduced to smoldering mess of aluminum and steel [UPDATE]
 
Have you followed the link that shows their plans for Superchargers in 2017? (It shows 8 new locations in Oregon, 13 in Washington, 17 in BC, Canada. Most, but not all, of them say they are planned to be open by the end of the year.)
I noticed that in some locations where they currently have superchargers (e.g. Gilroy CA) they show up as "coming soon". I assume this means they plan to expand in those locations. However they need to fix the map so the existing superchargers can be found.
 
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Dang, videos like this scare the crap out of me. While the statistics still show the rate of fires in Tesla are very low, seeing a car burn into NOTHING, while the ICE counterpart is still largely intact makes me realize that there is SOME truth to the whole burning batteries story the haters like to push. Also, it is fairly obvious here that the X caught on fire and then it spread to the Focus (one picture shows the X consumed in fire while the Focus barely has a fire at the very front of the car).

Just like everything else, the truth is somewhere in the middle. While the batteries are not nearly as dangerous as the haters like to tell everyone, they also aren't nearly as safe as we Tesla fans want to believe. Tesla cars that catch on fire almost always burn completely with nothing like but a frame when the fire is extinguished. Had those people not been able to exit the car, there was absolutely ZERO chance of survival. That statement may also be true of the Ford Focus.

I sure wish we could get better stats on car fires - especially by model year. If most ICE car fires are in cars 5 year or older, then that cannot be compared with the rate of fires in Tesla's cars since Tesla doesn't have cars over 5 years old yet (the Roadster withstanding since there simply aren't enough to really gather meaningful stats from).

I have been looking to buy my wife, and eventually my daughter a Tesla for a couple of years now. But, I can't lie. Videos like the one in the link give me great pause.

What you need to look at is the speed at which a vehicle goes up in flames after a high-speed collision. ICE vehicles can spill gasoline and turn into an inferno IN SECONDS. A Tesla can indeed be destroyed by flames, but the process is slow enough to allow survivors an opportunity to exit the vehicle. This is the difference. Who cares about what happens to a totaled vehicle after the survivors have exited safely?

The one weakness for either a Tesla or an ICE is the type of accident that renders the occupant(s) unable to depart the vehicle under their own power before the vehicle is consumed. Fortunately, that is a very small percentage of such accidents in the case of Teslas. I am not familiar with any loss of life due to flames in one yet.
 
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