2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[Papafox]

Thanks for the link. Anyone know how to force the link to NOT redirect to the german site? My German ist nicht gut.

I just went through the same problem. The answer is to find the small German flag at the bottom of the page, click it, select your preferred language, and the Tesla.com pages return to the desired language.

Note: For this reason it is probably best to NOT send a tesla.com link in a language other than English. We English speakers are not as trained to find the change of language button as the rest of the world's other language speakers.

 

[Buddyroe]

The degree to which the car disappears has nothing to do with the batteries. All aluminium cars are reduced to a pile of ash, with a few steel parts mixed in.

Look for instance at what happens to a new Ford pickup: Ford F-Series Super Duty prototype reduced to smoldering mess of aluminum and steel [UPDATE]

Ok, I get your point. And thanks for sharing that. But, that leads me to 2 more questions.

Why did the Tesla catch on fire in an accident with this Focus, but the Focus did not (as a result of the accident that is)? I wouldn't have thought the crumple space on the X would have minimized the impact compared to the Focus.

Secondly, are there any REAL world pictures or videos of an aluminum body F150 burning up like that? The one you posted was a test vehicle (tho I know you were only using it to demonstrate how aluminum burns). I'm just curios if Ford was somehow able to solve this problem. There were somewhere around 40 times more F150s sold in 2016 than MXs. For there to be even 1 MX fire like that, there should be 40 of the F150. I am wondering if there is even a handful. If not, that surely doesn't look good for Tesla.

 

[dennis]

The expansion of supercharging in city centers is huge for a number of reasons, all of which are bad news [for] bears:
- removes the home ownership obstacle for buying a Model 3
- alleviates the congestion at the most crowded superchargers
- nullifies complaints from road trippers that locals are hogging superchargers they need to access to continue their journey
- maintains Tesla's lead in charging infrastructure in the face of new DCFC networks being deployed

I suspect that Tesla was waiting to complete the recent cap raise before publicly committing to this huge capital commitment in 2017. And this would not have been practical to do without ending the free unlimited supercharging to keep those who can charge at home from crowding the city center superchargers.

Now they will need to execute and meet the end of 2017 target for this expansion.

 

[Buddyroe]

Odd. Even that link is forcing me to the german site.

Clear your cookies.

 

[Reciprocity]

I sure wish we could get better stats on car fires - especially by model year. If most ICE car fires are in cars 5 year or older, then that cannot be compared with the rate of fires in Tesla's cars since Tesla doesn't have cars over 5 years old yet (the Roadster withstanding since there simply aren't enough to really gather meaningful stats from).

Obviously everyone knows that all cars can catch fire in a high speed accident like the one you are referencing. What I think is important to note, you are seeing this accident a long time after the passengers, who survived. left the vehicle. Today's Lithium based batteries are volatile, but so is gas and oil. The difference is that the gas tank and things like oil filters/pumps are much more exposed then the battery in a Tesla. The battery pack is designed to contain any fire and isolate any damage that occurred from penetration of the protective shell. The goal is not to make is so its 100% fire proof, because that would make the pack much, much heavier and expensive. But the goal is to buy the driver/passengers time to get out of the car before the fire can spread from cell to cell, cascading and engulfing the entire car. In this case and pretty much any case where the crash leaves you alive, you will have time to get out. If you crash the car into a wall at 100+, you will probably die from the crash before the fire. But in normal situations, you will have time to get out of the car.

The question that I have is more from an insurance point of view. How many Tesla fires result in a complete loss vs tradition Ice vehicles? Also, if there was damage and you didnt know, and you parked the car in your garage. Whats the risks to your home?

 

[MP3Mike]

Why did the Tesla catch on fire in an accident with this Focus, but the Focus did not (as a result of the accident that is)? I wouldn't have thought the crumple space on the X would have minimized the impact compared to the Focus.

Didn't the Tesla hit a concrete barrier at full speed before it got hit by the Focus? So the crumple zone on the Tesla had already been used up by the time that the Focus came into the picture.

 

[MP3Mike]

Secondly, are there any REAL world pictures or videos of an aluminum body F150 burning up like that?

Just do a search and take a look.

Not totally gone though.

 

[dc_h]

Just do a search and take a look.

Not totally gone though.

you sure this wasn't staged by some Tesla fanbois? some people seem so sure that gasoline is stable and won't catch fire. I was beginning to believe it myself.

 

[Buddyroe]

US link:
Charging Is Our Priority

The expansion of supercharging in city centers is huge for a number of reasons, all of which are bad news [for] bears:
- removes the home ownership obstacle for buying a Model 3
- alleviates the congestion at the most crowded superchargers
- nullifies complaints from road trippers that locals are hogging superchargers they need to access to continue their journey
- maintains Tesla's lead in charging infrastructure in the face of new DCFC networks being deployed

I suspect that Tesla was waiting to complete the recent cap raise before publicly committing to this huge capital commitment in 2017. And this would not have been practical to do without ending the free unlimited supercharging to keep those who can charge at home from crowding the city center superchargers.

Now they will need to execute.

Kind of wish they had raised another $250M for this project though.

I also still wish they would partner with a nation convenience store chain to install 2 stations at each location. When Tesla owners can [nearly] drive freely with no thought to where they will charge (similar to how we travel in gas cars). Sure, in very remote areas you would still have to do good planning, but on the interstate, you would just pick and exit based on amenities and simply stop when you're ready. As it is now, our travel and charging stops are too dictated. Most people aren't going to map out their route and their stops before every trip. When we travel, we "play it by ear". Once we can do that in an EV, mass adoption will follow.

 

[RobStark]

you sure this wasn't staged by some Tesla fanbois? some people seem so sure that gasoline is stable and won't catch fire. I was beginning to believe it myself.

No, it was staged by a Hedge fund manager short F.

 

[Yggdrasill]

Why did the Tesla catch on fire in an accident with this Focus, but the Focus did not (as a result of the accident that is)? I wouldn't have thought the crumple space on the X would have minimized the impact compared to the Focus.

Sometimes vehicles involved in accidents catch fire, sometimes not. Why exactly the Model X caught fire is hard to say - it might be that some 12V line was shorted and pushed into flammable material, for instance. Stuff gets moved around in an accident.

 

[stopcrazypp]

Ok, I get your point. And thanks for sharing that. But, that leads me to 2 more questions.

Why did the Tesla catch on fire in an accident with this Focus, but the Focus did not (as a result of the accident that is)? I wouldn't have thought the crumple space on the X would have minimized the impact compared to the Focus.

Secondly, are there any REAL world pictures or videos of an aluminum body F150 burning up like that? The one you posted was a test vehicle (tho I know you were only using it to demonstrate how aluminum burns). I'm just curios if Ford was somehow able to solve this problem. There were somewhere around 40 times more F150s sold in 2016 than MXs. For there to be even 1 MX fire like that, there should be 40 of the F150. I am wondering if there is even a handful. If not, that surely doesn't look good for Tesla.

The Focus caught on fire too according to the articles I read. The entire engine compartment went up in flames.
Another angle that shows the Focus:

Tesla owner asks for $1 million after Model X caught on fire in crash and Falcon Wing doors wouldn’t open

From the article, the Model X hit the concrete at full speed first, which caused it to turn around and then the Focus hit the Model X.

I should point out, from the comments, the injuries to the face of the owners are likely because almost nobody wears a seatbelt in China when sitting in the backseat (and they avoid doing so in the front seat too, including by tampering the belt to make it loose, or wearing a shirt that looks like a belt is worn, even though there is a law making it mandatory).

 

[stopcrazypp]

Odd. Even that link is forcing me to the german site.

Try this one?
Charging Is Our Priority

 

[RobStark]

BMW dealers cry out for more 5 series

Company says output, deliveries have ramped up

 

[elasalle]

The expansion of supercharging in city centers is huge for a number of reasons, all of which are bad news [for] bears:
- removes the home ownership obstacle for buying a Model 3
- alleviates the congestion at the most crowded superchargers
- nullifies complaints from road trippers that locals are hogging superchargers they need to access to continue their journey
- maintains Tesla's lead in charging infrastructure in the face of new DCFC networks being deployed

I suspect that Tesla was waiting to complete the recent cap raise before publicly committing to this huge capital commitment in 2017. And this would not have been practical to do without ending the free unlimited supercharging to keep those who can charge at home from crowding the city center superchargers.

Now they will need to execute and meet the end of 2017 target for this expansion.

From An Update to Our Supercharging Program
Ensuring Use for Long-Distance Travel
For Teslas ordered after January 1, 2017, 400 kWh of free Supercharging credits (roughly 1,000 miles) will be included annually so that all owners can continue to enjoy free Supercharging during travel. Beyond that, there will be a small fee to Supercharge which will be charged incrementally and cost less than the price of filling up a comparable gas car. All cars will continue to come standard with the onboard hardware required for Supercharging.

--So, Slowly and Surely, the Super Charger will be a revenue generator ...

 

[larmor]

From An Update to Our Supercharging Program
Ensuring Use for Long-Distance Travel
For Teslas ordered after January 1, 2017, 400 kWh of free Supercharging credits (roughly 1,000 miles) will be included annually so that all owners can continue to enjoy free Supercharging during travel. Beyond that, there will be a small fee to Supercharge which will be charged incrementally and cost less than the price of filling up a comparable gas car. All cars will continue to come standard with the onboard hardware required for Supercharging.

--So, Slowly and Surely, the Super Charger will be a revenue generator ...

Sooo are we comparing the filling of a comparable car, such as a LaFerrari, just sayin'....

 

[Reciprocity]

--So, Slowly and Surely, the Super Charger will be a revenue generator ...

I would be happy if it even came close to paying for itself. I wonder how much solar/storage it would be required to support the average 8 stall super charger and how much per kWh the price would be. Tack on a 30% markup for maintenance and expansion.

 

[mmd]

Secondly, are there any REAL world pictures or videos of an aluminum body F150 burning up like that? The one you posted was a test vehicle (tho I know you were only using it to demonstrate how aluminum burns). I'm just curios if Ford was somehow able to solve this problem. There were somewhere around 40 times more F150s sold in 2016 than MXs. For there to be even 1 MX fire like that, there should be 40 of the F150. I am wondering if there is even a handful. If not, that surely doesn't look good for Tesla.

Ahem, you forgot the Autopilto safety. Recall twice as safe? The ratio should be more like 1:80.

What you need to look at is the speed at which a vehicle goes up in flames after a high-speed collision. ICE vehicles can spill gasoline and turn into an inferno IN SECONDS. A Tesla can indeed be destroyed by flames, but the process is slow enough to allow survivors an opportunity to exit the vehicle. This is the difference. Who cares about what happens to a totaled vehicle after the survivors have exited safely?

The one weakness for either a Tesla or an ICE is the type of accident that renders the occupant(s) unable to depart the vehicle under their own power before the vehicle is consumed. Fortunately, that is a very small percentage of such accidents in the case of Teslas. I am not familiar with any loss of life due to flames in one yet.

Really? There were 2-3 reported cases in Norway and France(?). You being unfamiliar shows your ignorance, not the reality. Here is the Indiana crash where rescuers couldn't approach the car due to exploding batteries. Car started exploding before the witness driver could even get out of his truck.
Father of Tesla driver: 'In another vehicle she would have been alive'

- removes the home ownership obstacle for buying a Model 3

Yeah, good luck telling them to go wait for 60 mins every 2-3 days to charge up at almost same or higher price than gassing up. Wasn't that the big time saver argument, that people don't need to stop for 3 mins every 2 weeks? Here is Hyundai Ioniq hybrid with 690 miles of range with one fill up. With 1000 mile/month, that's one stop every 3 weeks at any intersection of your choice. 10 year powertrain warranty and lifetime battery warranty are just icing on the cake
2017 Ioniq Hybrid | Hyundai USA

 

[elasalle]

Sooo are we comparing the filling of a comparable car, such as a LaFerrari, just sayin'....

Actually comparing based on "having to make a trip to the GAS Station for an ICE car" - Also comparing to "Apples sticky ecosystem"

 

[Yggdrasill]

Really? There were 2-3 reported cases in Norway and France(?). You being unfamiliar shows your ignorance, not the reality. Here is the Indiana crash where rescuers couldn't approach the car due to exploding batteries. Car started exploding before the witness driver could even get out of his truck.
Father of Tesla driver: 'In another vehicle she would have been alive'

No loss of life in Norway/France. There was one in the Netherlands, I believe, where someone died and there was a fire, but the car wasn't consumed by flames. There were just parts of the battery burning a few meters away from the car.

The incident you link is likely the only one where fire played a role and there was loss of life. But it could just as easily have occured in any other car. As they say, don't drink and drive. And don't go significantly over the speed limit while driving drunk, either.