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2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

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I'd like to be able to "ignore" mmd's posts, but I'm afraid I'll also be ignoring others' responses to his nonsense and miss a key piece info.

Since he's clearly here to distract from the main purpose of the forum, could the moderator please ban him?

If not, can we collectively "ignore" him?

I'm all but convinced that he's the same person as "MontanaSkeptic" on SeekingAlpha, which Elon has also blocked from his twitter.

You will still see the replies, you just won't see the quoted text from ignored members, which can be slightly confusing sometimes. Still worth it and it helps other readers because it's one less person getting trapped into replying.
 
LOL! Looks like some members can't face the facts and data points (links). They start wetting their pants when faced with facts that don't align with their fantasies :) Really funny.

Here is a suggestion. Mod should make another thread called "TSLA bull echo chamber". I suggest, these members seek asylum in that thread :) Only projections and rosy assumptions should be allowed there. External links and data points should be banned in that thread. Only Tesla statements and projections allowed.
 
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LOL! Looks like some members can't face the facts and data points (links). They start wetting their pants when faced with facts that don't align with their fantasies :) Really funny.

Here is a suggestion. Mod should make another thread called "TSLA bull echo chamber". I suggest, these members seek asylum in that thread :) Only projections and rosy assumptions should be allowed there. External links and data points should be banned in that thread. Only Tesla statements and projections allowed.
That's some batting average you have there. Look at the ratio of informative to disagree.
 
I'd like to be able to "ignore" mmd's posts, but I'm afraid I'll also be ignoring others' responses to his nonsense and miss a key piece info.

Since he's clearly here to distract from the main purpose of the forum, could the moderator please ban him?

If not, can we collectively "ignore" him?

I'm all but convinced that he's the same person as "MontanaSkeptic" on SeekingAlpha, which Elon has also blocked from his twitter.
I had this exact concern for a long time and maintained an ignore list of zero. One day I got fed up with a troll and finally pulled the trigger. Couldn't be happier. The list has grown and it makes reading the investment threads so much better.

One thing I learned through this exercise is that the regular and valuable contributors to this site, while generally bullish, can be trusted to consider and discuss bad news and bearish arguments in a sensible manner. And I also trust myself to evaluate such arguments based on their merit, not on positive or negative spin.

Plus, if you ever feel you are missing "valuable" context from an ignored post you can always click the show ignored content button to take a peek. In doing so, you will quickly remember why you clicked the ignore button in the first place.
 
I'd like to be able to "ignore" mmd's posts, but I'm afraid I'll also be ignoring others' responses to his nonsense and miss a key piece info.

Since he's clearly here to distract from the main purpose of the forum, could the moderator please ban him?

If not, can we collectively "ignore" him?

I'm all but convinced that he's the same person as "MontanaSkeptic" on SeekingAlpha, which Elon has also blocked from his twitter.
So, there are a lot of very computer literate folks here. It should be a short term project to 1) run Montana's public posts and essays thru a word comparitor (copy paste) and screen grab mmd's posts as a (copy paste) text file, run them through a comparitor and then compare the two for "similarities and differences" to get a % answer yes/no (I personally fall in the no camp though. humans are good at pattern recognition to the point of seeing patterns where none exist due to mistakes where critters eat you if you are wrong)
You could just ask him/her/it, tho I suspect him since theone photo we know of he is a slightly paunchy tummy extremely young dude for 30+ years legal beagleing...and he has an ego so big that makes him walk sideways through doors
 
I appreciate some of the bull comments, especially from the accounting people. Some vin counters have been helpful, but that seems to be lost art with growing china sales and mix of S and X sales. I get nervous with too much Pom Pom squad enthusiasm and am glad to know there are still haters out there. When everyone is on board it will be time to milk the cow, and that will not be as interesting as this period of Tesla history.
 
LOL! Looks like some members can't face the facts and data points (links). They start wetting their pants when faced with facts that don't align with their fantasies :) Really funny.
Some of your "facts" just from today:
- Ioniq hybrid has a lifetime warranty on the battery; but you failed to mention that it is only 1.5 kWh
- Model 3 owners without home charging will need to spend 60 minutes every 2-3 days at a Supercharger

I think it is a good idea to listen to dissenting views. But exaggerations and cherry picking data points doesn't add value to the discussion. In fact it subtracts which is one reason people here get annoyed with your posts. And no I don't believe you are Montana fro SA; he's much too proud of his identity to hide behind a pseudonym.
 
I appreciate some of the bull comments, especially from the accounting people. Some vin counters have been helpful, but that seems to be lost art with growing china sales and mix of S and X sales. I get nervous with too much Pom Pom squad enthusiasm and am glad to know there are still haters out there. When everyone is on board it will be time to milk the cow, and that will not be as interesting as this period of Tesla history.

The way I figure it - when everyone is on board and it's all Pom Pom squad, and the price is seriously high and divorced from reality, that might mark the end of Tesla being a good investment at that moment in time.

I figure the real end of Tesla, like any company, is when the naysayers are using a conga line of reasonable arguments and issues they see with how the company behaves, the markets its engaged in, the strategies being used to engage those markets, the companies ethics, questionable acquisition decisions, etc.. I don't see anything resembling this today.
 
Some of your "facts" just from today:
- Ioniq hybrid has a lifetime warranty on the battery; but you failed to mention that it is only 1.5 kWh
- Model 3 owners without home charging will need to spend 60 minutes every 2-3 days at a Supercharger

I think it is a good idea to listen to dissenting views. But exaggerations and cherry picking data points doesn't add value to the discussion. In fact it subtracts which is one reason people here get annoyed with your posts. And no I don't believe you are Montana fro SA; he's much too proud of his identity to hide behind a pseudonym.

Come on now :) I expected better from you than the 20 something ignorant bulls who are on my ignore list.
1. 1.5 KWh battery in Ioniq hybrid: I've already argued to death why the tiny battery is better in reducing emissions, without gobbling up huge number of battery cells like the full electric cars. Why do you want me to beat the same horse to death? If you don't know typical hybrid battery sizes, you can't fault me for that. The point is, the buyer is worry free about hybrid component forever. IIRC, Prius comes with 10 year hybrid system guarantee. This is even better. There were some posters claiming the hybrid battery will go bad very quickly. This disproves it. THIS is innovation.
Hyundai Elantra: 32 mpg EPA
Hyundai Ioniq: 56 mpg EPA => 66% reduction in gas consumption with just 1.5 KWh battery pack.

2. Take a look here:
Superchargers super-slow
In winter or cold weather, 120 miles <=> 60 kwh easily. At 38-40 kw (alone in the stall), it is easily 1.5 hrs while charging ALONE!
When will the commuters flock to the super chargers? Yes, in the morning or evening hours.
How long do you think it's going to take to charge when all stalls are busy?
Then, add the vampire drain while the car is parked out in the cold overnight.
Sorry, I was being optimistic at 60 mins.
And we still don't know the charging rate for Model 3. It's just the super charger limitations I am talking here.
 
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Come on now :) I expected better from you than the 20 something ignorant bulls who are on my ignore list.
1. 1.5 KWh battery in Ioniq hybrid: I've already argued to death why the tiny battery is better in reducing emissions, without gobbling up huge number of battery cells like the full electric cars. Why do you want me to beat the same horse to death? If you don't know typical hybrid battery sizes, you can't fault me for that. The point is, the buyer is worry free about hybrid component forever. IIRC, Prius comes with 10 year hybrid system guarantee. This is even better. There were some posters claiming the hybrid battery will go bad very quickly. This disproves it. THIS is innovation.
Hyundai Elantra: 32 mpg EPA
Hyundai rIoniq: 56 mpg EPA => 75% reduction in gas consumption with just 1.5 KWh battery pack.

2. Take a look here:
Superchargers super-slow
In winter or cold weather, 120 miles <=> 60 kwh easily. At 38-40 kw (alone in the stall), it is easily 1.5 hrs while charging ALONE!
When will the commuters flock tot he super chargers? Yes, in the morning or evening hours.
How long do you think it's going to take to charge when all stalls are busy? Sorry, I was being optimistic at 60 mins.

Commuters flock to the pumps/chargers on their morning or evening 30 minute commutes? That is the least likely time I will do it. Just got to get to work man.
Thats what weekends are for. Unless you are lucky enough to own an EV, and can charge overnight while sleeping. Sounds like bliss.
 
Here's my email to the author:
Not a bad article, better than most. However, you chose well-known Tesla bashers for your 'experts', and I would have hoped you had got some reaction to their stances. While there are more EVs coming, and Elon Must encourages them, most are still pie in the sky, much later, of compete with Tesla's upscale products, the S and X. It appears that Tesla is on target for the Model # production.

As to why Tesla has not made a 'pofit', it is sinking all its profits into expansion (50% per year), and that money is turning into assets such as IP and factories. Also, they have reduced battery costs, due to the Gigafactory and vertical integration, so that it is very likely they will make some money on each Model 3, even the base models -- and more on the optioned versions. Plus those battery savings will extend to their S/X models in the future.

In addition, Tesla is more than a car company, they are expanding into stationary storage and solar, in a big way.

Rather than a good stock to short, my advice is to go long.
 
You will still see the replies, you just won't see the quoted text from ignored members, which can be slightly confusing sometimes. Still worth it and it helps other readers because it's one less person getting trapped into replying.
Did you answer to someone here? I can't see anything above your text...
 
So, there are a lot of very computer literate folks here. It should be a short term project to 1) run Montana's public posts and essays thru a word comparitor (copy paste) and screen grab mmd's posts as a (copy paste) text file, run them through a comparitor and then compare the two for "similarities and differences" to get a % answer yes/no (I personally fall in the no camp though. humans are good at pattern recognition to the point of seeing patterns where none exist due to mistakes where critters eat you if you are wrong)
You could just ask him/her/it, tho I suspect him since theone photo we know of he is a slightly paunchy tummy extremely young dude for 30+ years legal beagleing...and he has an ego so big that makes him walk sideways through doors

I would be very interested if someone could actually pull this off, fwiw from what I can tell, it's the same "I'll put you down with disdain and humor" type of writing style that includes enough short-term financial verbiage to fool someone without a finance/accounting background, but to a trained eye with a longer term horizon, his intentions are crystal clear.

And frankly, I don't think he's a young dude. I think he's someone trained in finance and has access to resources and proprietary data. I think he's a pro short, and maybe even a famous one.
 
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"5-10 minutes" is in-line with the goal post JB put up when Superchargers first came out.

Tesla targets 5-minute Supercharger recharges for Model S - SlashGear

If there's anything about Tesla that you should have learned by now is that they accomplish things you and I think are impossible.

There are two bottle necks in high speed EV charging. The fundamental limitation is how fast you can charge one battery without damaging the battery.

The second bottle neck is heat management, especially between the connector and the car. It will become a problem even if there is a tinny bit of resistance in the contacting area.

Tesla probably has good solutions in the lab, which might include higher charging voltage (900V?), improved sensors and cooling. I feel 15 minutes should be good enough.
 
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