-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
- Status
Gerasimental
Member
Trump inviting entire Senate to the white house for a briefing on North Korea, with the Sec of State, Sec of Defence, Director of National Intelligence, and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
Last time this happened was before the invasion of Iraq.
Would like to hear form @IntlProfessor what he reads into this. As ominous as it looks at first sight?
Entire U.S. Senate to go to White House for North Korea briefing
Last time this happened was before the invasion of Iraq.
Would like to hear form @IntlProfessor what he reads into this. As ominous as it looks at first sight?
Entire U.S. Senate to go to White House for North Korea briefing
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Totally agree. But human nature is unfortunately human nature.
I've got lots of friends here in SoCal who hit the superchargers and answer work emails/calls while waiting. I kid you not...
Fortunately, the policy change to "pay for use" with superchargers will reduce this abuse.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
You are correct, it won't happen any time soon, i.e. within the next 2-3 years. Expecting to see a 5-10 minute charge when Tesla can't even do a 30 minute full charge is not realistic.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Tesla is now saying they are going after the "can't charge where you park it" market by having Superchargers in City centers. Like London and Hong Kong.
If you are paying per kWh and per minute after charging is complete it is not abuse.
Weak bear arguments should be allowed anywhere they wish to post them.
LOL! Looks like some members can't face the facts and data points (links). They start wetting their pants when faced with facts that don't align with their fantasiesReally funny.
Here is a suggestion. Mod should make another thread called "TSLA bull echo chamber". I suggest, these members seek asylum in that thread
I don't agree with most of what you post but I'm staunchly anti-censorship.
here's an options strategy table i put together today. did one for the 5/5 expiration and one for the 5/12 expiration. this table's a little different. i'm interested in what happens if the stock goes to 330 after earnings (see q1 2017 thread for some more voodoo on why 330).
i'm looking at how many dollars to i have to invest at each strike to reach a similar profit at the 330 stock price level.
for 5/5 expiration you can see that $10k in 270 calls is about the same as $8k in 280 calls, $6.5k in 290 calls and $5.5k in 300 calls. you can review how the payout profiles look to you, for me at the 5/5 expiration i would opt for 280 or 290 calls, that optimizes capital at risk based on my post earnings expectation.
you can see these are not especially exciting options returns. we're talking about making $5k on a $5.5-10k investment if all goes well for the 5/5 expiry. similar to worst at the 5/12 expiration. i could be underestimating how far the stock will travel, and then of course my numbers are far off.
if you remember 2013 - this is not a similar expectation. consider that you need from here at least a 50pt move and you might be able to squeeze a 10x gain out of the 5/5 340 calls. in 2013 a 50pt move got you a several hundred fold gain in some of those calls. it's an order of magnitude for that same 50pt move... agreed that the percentage move is less today than it was then for 50 points.
here's the table for the 5/5 expiration. prices likely changed
here's the 5/12 table. i analyzed 270, 290, 300, and 315 strikes here.
prices likely changed and tables were built at different times.
i'm looking at how many dollars to i have to invest at each strike to reach a similar profit at the 330 stock price level.
for 5/5 expiration you can see that $10k in 270 calls is about the same as $8k in 280 calls, $6.5k in 290 calls and $5.5k in 300 calls. you can review how the payout profiles look to you, for me at the 5/5 expiration i would opt for 280 or 290 calls, that optimizes capital at risk based on my post earnings expectation.
you can see these are not especially exciting options returns. we're talking about making $5k on a $5.5-10k investment if all goes well for the 5/5 expiry. similar to worst at the 5/12 expiration. i could be underestimating how far the stock will travel, and then of course my numbers are far off.
if you remember 2013 - this is not a similar expectation. consider that you need from here at least a 50pt move and you might be able to squeeze a 10x gain out of the 5/5 340 calls. in 2013 a 50pt move got you a several hundred fold gain in some of those calls. it's an order of magnitude for that same 50pt move... agreed that the percentage move is less today than it was then for 50 points.
here's the table for the 5/5 expiration. prices likely changed
| invested$-> | 10000 | 8000 | 6500 | 5500 |
| call strike-> | 270 | 280 | 290 | 300 |
| 5/5 px | 39.50 | 30.30 | 22.25 | 15.45 |
| 270 | -10000.00 | -8000.00 | -6500.00 | -5500.00 |
| 275 | -8734.18 | -8000.00 | -6500.00 | -5500.00 |
| 280 | -7468.35 | -8000.00 | -6500.00 | -5500.00 |
| 285 | -6202.53 | -6679.87 | -6500.00 | -5500.00 |
| 290 | -4936.71 | -5359.74 | -6500.00 | -5500.00 |
| 295 | -3670.89 | -4039.60 | -5039.33 | -5500.00 |
| 300 | -2405.06 | -2719.47 | -3578.65 | -5500.00 |
| 305 | -1139.24 | -1399.34 | -2117.98 | -3720.06 |
| 310 | 126.58 | -79.21 | -657.30 | -1940.13 |
| 315 | 1392.41 | 1240.92 | 803.37 | -160.19 |
| 320 | 2658.23 | 2561.06 | 2264.04 | 1619.74 |
| 325 | 3924.05 | 3881.19 | 3724.72 | 3399.68 |
| 330 | 5189.87 | 5201.32 | 5185.39 | 5179.61 |
| 335 | 6455.70 | 6521.45 | 6646.07 | 6959.55 |
| 340 | 7721.52 | 7841.58 | 8106.74 | 8739.48 |
| 345 | 8987.34 | 9161.72 | 9567.42 | 10519.42 |
| 350 | 10253.16 | 10481.85 | 11028.09 | 12299.35 |
here's the 5/12 table. i analyzed 270, 290, 300, and 315 strikes here.
prices likely changed and tables were built at different times.
| invested$-> | 10000 | 7000 | 6700 | 8850 |
| call strike-> | 270 | 290 | 300 | 315 |
| 5/12 px-> | 39.00 | 22.70 | 16.70 | 9.35 |
| 270 | -10000.00 | -7000.00 | -6700.00 | -8850.00 |
| 275 | -8717.95 | -7000.00 | -6700.00 | -8850.00 |
| 280 | -7435.90 | -7000.00 | -6700.00 | -8850.00 |
| 285 | -6153.85 | -7000.00 | -6700.00 | -8850.00 |
| 290 | -4871.79 | -7000.00 | -6700.00 | -8850.00 |
| 295 | -3589.74 | -5458.15 | -6700.00 | -8850.00 |
| 300 | -2307.69 | -3916.30 | -6700.00 | -8850.00 |
| 305 | -1025.64 | -2374.45 | -4694.01 | -8850.00 |
| 310 | 256.41 | -832.60 | -2688.02 | -8850.00 |
| 315 | 1538.46 | 709.25 | -682.04 | -8850.00 |
| 320 | 2820.51 | 2251.10 | 1323.95 | -4117.38 |
| 325 | 4102.56 | 3792.95 | 3329.94 | 615.24 |
| 330 | 5384.62 | 5334.80 | 5335.93 | 5347.86 |
| 335 | 6666.67 | 6876.65 | 7341.92 | 10080.48 |
| 340 | 7948.72 | 8418.50 | 9347.90 | 14813.10 |
| 345 | 9230.77 | 9960.35 | 11353.89 | 19545.72 |
| 350 | 10512.82 | 11502.20 | 13359.88 | 24278.34 |
Last edited:
The idea being to buy early this week?
Are you more concerned about pre-earnings run rather than waiting and paying less for time premium?
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
i think positioning should just be fine tuned now. there were some dips to buy last 5-7 days which is where i added the exposure i wanted. this week for me will be move strikes and cut capital at risk while maintaining upside. the table helps with that.
now we got a solar roof announcement coming, the france election pop, and a lot of shorts who made a dumb move on the recall last week. won't be fun to pay up in here.
now we got a solar roof announcement coming, the france election pop, and a lot of shorts who made a dumb move on the recall last week. won't be fun to pay up in here.
Fair point. Lets put it this way... If we run into the earnings would you close out the calls because less likely to move afterwards?
dennis
Model S Plaid
Haven't you noticed that no one here cares about your "hybrids are great" point of view? This is a Tesla forum, meaning that most of the folks here are interested in BEV, not hybrids. Let's see how well the new Ioniq sells compared to the Model 3 and then it might be worth discussing.Come on now
1. 1.5 KWh battery in Ioniq hybrid: I've already argued to death why the tiny battery is better in reducing emissions, without gobbling up huge number of battery cells like the full electric cars. Why do you want me to beat the same horse to death? If you don't know typical hybrid battery sizes, you can't fault me for that. The point is, the buyer is worry free about hybrid component forever. IIRC, Prius comes with 10 year hybrid system guarantee. This is even better. There were some posters claiming the hybrid battery will go bad very quickly. This disproves it. THIS is innovation.
Hyundai Elantra: 32 mpg EPA
Hyundai Ioniq: 56 mpg EPA => 66% reduction in gas consumption with just 1.5 KWh battery pack.
2. Take a look here:
Superchargers super-slow
In winter or cold weather, 120 miles <=> 60 kwh easily. At 38-40 kw (alone in the stall), it is easily 1.5 hrs while charging ALONE!
When will the commuters flock to the super chargers? Yes, in the morning or evening hours.
How long do you think it's going to take to charge when all stalls are busy?
Then, add the vampire drain while the car is parked out in the cold overnight.
Sorry, I was being optimistic at 60 mins.
And we still don't know the charging rate for Model 3. It's just the super charger limitations I am talking here.
Do you own a Model S? Do you have experience supercharging? Or, as usual, are you just cherry picking the most negative edge case to try to prove your negative bias?
In my 4 1/2 years of owning a Model S I've supercharged about 50 times in California. I've only waited for a stall twice - once when Harris Ranch only had one stall and once for 20 minutes in Burbank. Tesla is doubling the number of superchargers so "all stalls are busy" is even less likely. And if supercharging is such a horrible experience, why is Tesla the highest ranked brand by Consumer Reports, with 91% of owners saying they would buy again? Your arguments do not hold water.
jhm
Well-Known Member
Possible names:
Tesla Grille
Nosecone Cafe
Jolt-n-Drive
Piston Burger
Diner at the End of Oil Age
AI Eatery
As a long term Tesla bull, I have no doubt the trillion dollar market cap will be achieved in 10~15 years. That's why I have a large 90% permanent long that I never touch.
The breakout is great, technical charts are great, Tesla's business development is great. However, I found it happened a few times in the past that when everyone is very bullish near term and loaded with margins and options, suddenly something goes wrong, bulls are hurt a lot.
Is it possible that South Korea's chip production gets into trouble then all tech companies get affected, then the whole market is affected? It's a small possibility, but it's not zero at this point. I am definitely not suggesting anyone to sell TSLA holdings. I am not selling. I also have a small % in 2019 Leaps.
It would be painful if I can't participate the trillion dollar run because my whole account is wiped out due to margin. In case it goes below certain price level, I plan to bring my position down to 100%. I try not use the popular stop-loss levels.
The breakout is great, technical charts are great, Tesla's business development is great. However, I found it happened a few times in the past that when everyone is very bullish near term and loaded with margins and options, suddenly something goes wrong, bulls are hurt a lot.
Is it possible that South Korea's chip production gets into trouble then all tech companies get affected, then the whole market is affected? It's a small possibility, but it's not zero at this point. I am definitely not suggesting anyone to sell TSLA holdings. I am not selling. I also have a small % in 2019 Leaps.
It would be painful if I can't participate the trillion dollar run because my whole account is wiped out due to margin. In case it goes below certain price level, I plan to bring my position down to 100%. I try not use the popular stop-loss levels.
Regarding the growth of supercharger quantities, I see in Truckee, CA, and Reno, NV, that Tesla is moving superchargers from venues with limited space to venues with more room. Undoubtedly the idea is to increase the number of supercharger stalls in popular locations so as to prepare for Model 3s joining the fleet. The change is happening.
racer26
Active Member
Well, I don't know what tomorrow looks like, but I've now joined the legions of TSLA investors with Model S's largely paid for by the shorts.
2014 S85. Love it already and I've had it for 5 hours.
2014 S85. Love it already and I've had it for 5 hours.
I have no special expertise but your inference scares the excrement out of me, and you may be right. In the Iraq War there was much more preparation for this, even before 9/11 and Bush's first election, there was a group preparing for invasion of Iraq (Project for the New American Century - Wikipedia) Most of his later advisers were associated with that group, including Dick Cheney. This time we have been prepared only because of tweets, but the lead up to the Iraq war was much more substantial and professional. More professional still was Bush I's lead up to the First Gulf War, getting substantial allied approval beforehand. You and I don't expect that to happen because Trump wouldn't get approval by the UN or other allies, with the possible exception of the Japanese or South Koreans which I consider unlikely.
Referencing this article I posted earlier about taking out a missile during the boost phase: https://www.nap.edu/read/13189/chapter/4#34, especially pages 50-51 from which I quoted.
Though the article concluded the Aegis technology was problematical of success then, some five years later we might have technology able to target the flame of a launch using improved Aegis armament. Of course, taking out the nuclear test facility (which is what may be considered now), is a fixed location and easily monitored by satellite and other imaging--a much simpler target. I read recently the Vinson carrier task force is accompanied by two Aegis class cruisers. They have the weapons of choice which would not risk the lives of pilots. Kim has already said it would be destroyed and since he has mobile launched ballistic missiles which could be rolled out of hangers on a moments notice, a retaliatory nuclear strike against our ships should be considered in the balance.
Ask any naval commander about the worry he/she has about a near miss of a nuclear weapon exploded at sea. You've probably seen the tests of early hydrogen bombs where we invited the world's naval attaches to view a demolition of a navy larger than almost all others with but one explosion. Remember the movie about tornadoes, "oh, watch out for a flying cow!" Imagine, or look up the old test video, "oh, flying aircraft carrier on the right, followed by a destroyer,...." But you get the picture. I suspect Kim does not have hydrogen bombs, 1000 times more potent than Hiroshima, but baby nukes like that are not just firecrackers either.
By the way, the commander of the Vinson task force is a female admiral. How poetic if she is the one who is relieved of command for not following orders.
When the French were besieged in 1954 at Dien Bien Phu Admiral Radford, then Jt. Chiefs Chairman, and Allen Dulles, head of the CIA, approached Eisenhower proposing the use of nuclear weapons. Eisenhower said to consult with Congressional leaders Lyndon Johnson and Sam Rayburn about it. In turn, they counseled, "consult with our allies." When Radford/Dulles flew to London Clement Attlee knew all about it and refused cooperation. I have no idea how the Chief and Director would use nuclear weapons in guerrilla war, which we taught the Vietnamese how to do against the Japanese during WWII. I do know that Eisenhower was a very crafty politician, not selected for his strategic vision by Roosevelt, but for his political skill. Of course he knew Attlee personally.
(On Eisenhower's political astuteness, before it became generally understood by the cognoscenti, see Gary Wills, Nixon Agonistes.) I would have voted for Ike both times had I the franchise. Ike did not let his limbic brain rule his cortex. Trump's brain, on the other hand...you can tell from the size of his hands.
The best move for Kim would be to never again test a nuclear weapon; this next bluff by Trump is designed for that outcome. But what if their bully calls our bully's bluff? I don't like this game. Whenever played before with bullies it leads to war. (I can't give you a statistical count, distinguished students of the subject can. Neroden?)
Last edited:
- Status
Similar threads
- Sticky
