2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[Todd Burch]

If you want to nitpick, better be right. Otherwise it's just sad. Please look up the concept of friction again instead of aerodynamic drag. More specifically Amontons' laws.

I am a mechanical engineer, and I am right. Off-topic, but Amonton's Laws are basic high school level physics principles applying to sliding friction such as the friction that allows your car to accelerate due to tire forces on the road. Completely irrelevent when referring to forces needed to push an object through a fluid.

While sitting on the platform, the tires are not sliding relative to it. As a result, no energy is lost, since losing energy in a closed system requires applying a force across a distance (concept of "Work", another high school level basic physics principle) Since no distance is travelled, no work is done, no energy is lost.

Of course there is some friction in the rails that increases with mass, but this can be mitigated (removed significantly using magnetic levitation) and at any rate, the frictional forces in a well-designed rail system would pale in comparison to the aerodynamic forces at 120 mph, since aero forces increase with the square of velocity. For example...

 

[T3slaTulips]

1. Tunnels would actually make autopilot cars capable of near fully autonomy because of the very static nature of the tubes. No pedestrians, very uniform travel paths. They could also be created with visual ques that the system could easily see to give it directions.
2. You do not need GPS all the time for autonomy. You only need it momentarily to find your location. GPS is not accurate enough to assist in autonomy. What happens is the GPS gets your location down to 3 meters. The vision system and rad then identifies landmarks to get the system down to ~10 centimeters. Once it has this location it can then use the speed and direction of the car, with updates periodically from GPS and Vision system to keep you in that 10 cm accuracy. So as long as you know where you are on with GPS/Vision when you enter the tunnels, you dont need GPS at all in the tunnels.
3. 120 mph is not bad if you in a platoon. Only the front car would be less efficient. This would be easier to coordinate in a tunnel with a single path.
4. Ice cannot access tunnels because of fumes. It would become toxic or you would have to have some insane ventilation, unless they are on skateboards. Though I dont think the skateboards will work because they would be too limiting. The system could only support as many cars as you have scateboards. Maybe they would just be for ICE vehicles or vehicles without a high enough level of autonomy. I believe by the time we have any tunnels it will be illegal to drive manually in these tunnels.

1. My contention was that autonomy without override must be mandatory in tunnels.
2. Right, it's just the current vision system doesn't do navigation today (would need update).
3. On the cart the car uses zero consumption for transport. The customer like that.
4. put all cars on boards, set board supply just above average peak demand.

I'm also wondering if people missed the idea that the speedy tunnels likely will have a small toll charge for usage?

 

[Navin]

Good summary of Elon's TED talk:
Elon Musk's underground roads will have car 'elevators' and no speed limits

Anyone know when the video's supposed to come out?

Dave, there will be a replay of Ted talk highlights including Elon's interview tomorrow at select theatres in the us nationwide. If you are in the Chicagoland area - I'm going to the IMAX theatre in Lincolnshire, IL if anyone wants to meet up. Popcorn on me!! Courtesy of TSLA. MMD - you are also welcome to come - I'll buy u ice cream as well since it was a rough week for you.
TED Cinema Experience

 

[SPadival]

The government can't subsidize 25% of the cost of auto manufacture forever.

Australia's automotive industry didn't collapse on Dec 12, 2013 from a rosy perch. It had been atrophying for years.

Australian wages being 2/3 higher than American Automotive Manufacturing wages is also unsustainable.

Now 10% automotive tariffs have been eliminated.

Australians are getting better cars at cheaper prices. Despite paying more than Europeans and Americans.


BTW Trump is all about high tariffs and subsidies for local manufacturing. He would never ever have done what Abbott did. He touted "saving" air conditioning manufacture by using subsidies.

We are not getting cars any cheaper than before. They are a ripoff, even the Japanese ones. Every car company in the world get subsidies in one form or another. Aussie ones are no exception. Wages are high because we are a bit more egalitarian and want our workers to get a living wage.

I lived in Dayton, OH about a year ago and now live in a suburbwithin 20 miles from 3 of these closing auto plants. I hope they don't turn into the S Town that Dayton has become.

 

[Reciprocity]

4. put all cars on boards, set board

In a perfect world where you can just say it and it happens, sure. In the real world, you wouldn't be able to build enough of these things cheap enough and the infrastructure to make them work turns your billions of dollars in tunnels into trillions of dollars. Same with car elevators in traffic Lanes vs ramps in parking lots and structures.

The infrastructure would cost more then the tunnels and would make them less efficient as autonomous cars could Platoon very close together for max efficiency.

 

[jhm]

Why does it have to fit within the Tesla vision? Elon has said that developing transportation infrastructure in 3D solves a problem of humanity (urban congestion and traffic) and he likes solving those problems. But:

-Platforms enable ICE cars to become electric for the journey. Fits with Tesla's vision of electrifying transport.
-Lots of cars will not be Level 5 autonomous (or electric for that matter) for decades to come, hence platforms.
-Transport the car because people still prefer to sit in their own "space" vs public transportation, especially when hauling stuff.

(Pedantic Nitpick: energy to overcome friction doesn't really make sense. But force to overcome friction (or energy consumed to transport something through a fluid) is 100% independent of mass: energy consumed over a distance depends on distance travelled, drag coefficient, fluid density, frontal area, and velocity: e = Force*distance = 1/2*p*Cd*A*v^2*d. But the spirit of your comment (moving a person would take less energy than a car) is correct.

I wonder how travelling in a tunnel changes the aerodynamics. Let's suppose that within a tunnel segment all vehicles travel in the same direction and speed. Thus, all the air around the vehicles is flowing with the same average velocity. Thus, aerodynamic drag has more to do with resistance to flow near the walls of the tunnel. So the tunnel itself can be very aerodynamic.

In segments where the speed needs to slow the cross-sectional area of the tunnel can expand. At an extreme, if the tunnel exits into open air. The cross-sectional area becomes infinite, and average wind velocity around vehicles becomes dictated by meteorology.

So I think Musk may be rethinking hyperloop. There the solution to aerodynamic drag was to evacuate the tubes, which itself has an energy cost to maintain. But you can also solve the problem just by fluid flow. There is a certain amount of energy needed to pump air through a tube at a given speed. So how does that compare the energy required to maintain a vacuum in a tube?

 

[austinEV]

VIP factory tour invites are out. Scheduled for June 2and 3. Will include q&a with Franz.



This is a referral prize. Prize winners get 3 plus ones...

Need to crowd source our Franz questions!

 

[austinEV]

VIP factory tour invites are out. Scheduled for June 2and 3. Will include q&a with Franz.

View attachment 224932

This is a referral prize. Prize winners get 3 plus ones...

Need to crowd source our Franz questions!

The timing is interesting. The m3 line will be nearly done or done. Suggests some confidence....

 

[winfield100]

So I was out drinking last night and I couldn't resist telling some friends about Elon's stormy weather tweet and what happened last time he did that. They all don't think the electric car revolution is coming and one of them pointed out that there is not enough lithium. I haven't really done much reading than that I just figure they guys at Tesla have addressed this if it was a problem. Do you guys have any information about this? I swear this is the last time I am telling my friends about jumping into TSLA stock.

@Rammstein
since you ask about Lithium and Lithium miners, here is a link to a series of dispassionate monthly articles on Lithium. I realize its (ick) Seeking Alpha, but there is some useful info there this guy's series of monthly articles has few comments. You can get an idea. i am not reccomending buying or selling, just usable, dispassionate information
Lithium Miner News For The Month Of April 2017 - Global X Lithium ETF (NYSEARCA:LIT) | Seeking Alpha

 

[Ugliest1]

I wonder how travelling in a tunnel changes the aerodynamics.

I thought the tunnel was supposed to be airless, i.e. vacuum.

 

[Snapdragon III]

Yes this is my thought as well. Tesla can produce millions of cars the next several years and all of them will be sold out. Why split the pot with China now when it'll sell out regardless where the factory is located? When the market becomes a little more saturated, then a Chinese entry makes sense. Entering China, lose 50% profits, right now when people in the US, Europe, etc. are begging for their cars makes no sense.

I don't think the way it works if you make cars in China is that you have to split the profits 50-50. I think they would have to have a 50% partner for the manufacturing operation, which they would run on very tight margins, then the cars would be sold to Tesla at close to break even, then they would mark them up and sell them retail in China. I think Tesla would still keep most of the profit. I don't think Apple splits the profits 50%-50% with Foxconn for iPhones made and sold in China. I think the bigger concern with China is having your intellectual property stolen, which may not be much of an issue since they are open sourcing a lot of it anyways. I doubt that they want to open source the machine that builds the machine though, so that might be an issue.

 

[Thumper]

Hyperloop = vacuum tube. Boring tunnel made to move non-airtight cars cannot be a vacuum.

 

[Ugliest1]

Oh yeah... that makes sense. Duh.

 

[Rarity]

I don't get how the boring company fits within the Tesla vision. Within a few years, Tesla cars will be fully autonomous. Why thence cars on platforms? They can drive themselves in the tunnels with ease. In fact, within a few years a lot of those cars will offer ride shares in the Tesla Network. Why transport the car at all? Why doesn't Elon apply first principle physics here? Energy needed to overcome friction forces is proportional with mass. Move 80kg of body flesh instead of 5 tons of battery and aluminium. Pick up the car at end of the tunnel for the last few miles. At least the hyperloop was consistent with the Tesla Vision. Boring company I don't really see it.

Apparently, part of the 10x cost reduction is reducing the diameter of the tunnel, down to 12 feet (3.7 meters). Allowing all manner of autonomous vehicles in a single straight line requires a larger diameter to allow more margin.

When asked about costs, Musk said the LA subway extension cost $2bn for two and a half miles so he's hoping for “at least a tenfold improvement in the cost of tunnelling per mile” with The Boring Company. If a single road needs to be 26ft to 28ft in diameter, you can shrink that diameter to 12ft, explained Musk, which cuts the cross-sectional area by a factor of four. “That's roughly half the price cut right there.”

Elon Musk's underground roads will have car 'elevators' and no speed limits

So this would suggest that the Tunnel Boring Machine that is on site at SpaceX is really the size of Tunnel Boring Machine that would be used for the car tunnel.

Edit: Compare to the Bertha TBM in Seattle. 57 feet (17.4 meters) diameter. Two lanes of traffic each way. Accommodates trucks, where I assume Elon's tunnelmania would not.

 

[LargeHamCollider]

VIP factory tour invites are out. Scheduled for June 2and 3. Will include q&a with Franz.

View attachment 224932

This is a referral prize. Prize winners get 3 plus ones...

Need to crowd source our Franz questions!

I'd ask what the final cd of the M3 is. And how aero is weighted vs. styling when designing Tesla exteriors.

 

[MitchJi]

I don't see how Tesla can announce 4 new gigafactory locations this year.

I'd say 2-3 is more realistic. But the enticing question is why 4? One in China and one in Europe. Those are crucial to Model 3 avoiding import tariffs and such. Then maybe one maybe in US to handle pickup truck (assembly and battery). But where is the fourth one to go?

How big will they be? GF1 size x 2 or 4 the size?

As to four Gigafactories being realistic that means mass production of the cell manufacturing equipment. I'm sure that they can reduce the time required and the costs to produce the equipment a lot, compared to the first Gigafactory.

Even if they are the same size as GF1 that is a huge expansion for Tesla. Maybe the mission statement should change from "accelerating..." to "making..." the transition to sustainable energy .

 

[The Blue Owl]

I don't see how Tesla can announce 4 new gigafactory locations this year. I'd say 2-3 is more realistic. But the enticing question is why 4? One in China and one in Europe. Those are crucial to Model 3 avoiding import tariffs and such. Then maybe one maybe in US to handle pickup truck (assembly and battery). But where is the fourth one to go?

Australia?

 

[Ghostman]

A possible concern regarding the earnings call is if Elon does announce GF3-6 and maybe other new CapEx programs and increase M3 production targets for 2017. Would analysts translate that into massive CapEx and with M3 not beginning until Q3, further raise alarms regarding risk? I remember being quite giddy 1 year ago about the M3 reservations going into earnings and Elon pulled in M3 production to 500k in 2018 and all the analysts dropped their targets. Wonder if anything similar could happen given M3 is still not "out" yet and analysts might still distrust Elon, at least for another quarter.

Thoughts?

 

[D-egg-O]

VIP factory tour invites are out. Scheduled for June 2and 3. Will include q&a with Franz.

View attachment 224932

This is a referral prize. Prize winners get 3 plus ones...

Need to crowd source our Franz questions!

Ask him to please explain the design "language" for the Tesla Semi.

 

[austinEV]

Ask him to please explain the design "language" for the Tesla Semi.

That's an obvious and good one. I am also going to ask about the roadster and "the supercar" that I hope they do and see if he denies it.