2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[Reciprocity]

Keep in mind that the same was said about Powerwall 1.

I am not revising up my DCF projections for Solar Roof, just yet.

Dont piss in my Wheaties, I am basking in the dream that Tesla is going to sell 200,000 roofs next year and thinking, if that had been 200,000 5kw PV setups instead it would only have been ~$3B rev but because they are doing the whole roof, its going to be ~$10B and $2B in Gross Profit. Ok so maybe 2019 with Solar Roof v2.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Couldn't disagree any more than your assessment of the situation. Maybe you live in Canada and have a different take. As much as I hate GM and what it now represents it was the right thing to do at the time. It's not just GM but all the other OE suppliers and business around GMs business. You couldn't be any more wrong IMHO.

I actually agree with both @racer26 and @EnzoXYZ on this.

I do think that the companies should not have been bailed out, but I certainly empathize with the pain and suffering that tens of thousands of families would have experienced without a bailout.

I think a better way to handle it would have been winding them down slowly under bankruptcy protection, and providing government-assistance to families while the heads of households transitioned into new industries.

This way, the impact to society would have been minimized while capitalism did what it does best: allocating resources to better use, such as the all-electric revolution.

 

[Fallenone]

This part is particularly interesting:

I'm having a bit trouble to wrap my head around that 95% opex not associated with S/X. Of course there's ton of opex due to D&A of asset not used for S/X (GF most obviously). But 95%? That's like saying almost all those Tesla stores and employee are basically a waste if they are not going for 3 and other products.

A breakdown on their opex:
Before SCTY integration in 2016: $500-500M per Q, about 38% of which is RND (~$200M) and the rest SG&A
After SCTY fully integrated (Q1 2017): $925M, $322M RND and $600 SG&A.

Even if $0 was spent on S/X RND, and we assume SCTY is adding $300M of SG&A that has nothing to do with S/X, that leaves $300M in SG&A. If only 5% of the $925M is related to S/X, that's only $46M. There's a huge gap between $46M and $300M. How can this be?

 

[austinEV]

Put down a deposit for an inventory P100D model X Saving Q2 by one unit, probably.

 

[FluxCap]

Put down a deposit for an inventory P100D model X Saving Q2 by one unit, probably.

Congrats!!

 

[bdy0627]

That's a great point about Tesla stating in 2015 that they had sold out Powerwall production in 2016. How many did they actually end up producing in 2016? Do we have any way of knowing? It would appear that several grains of salt need to be applied to some of these statements...

 

[ValueAnalyst]

As mentioned two days ago, I added shares below $305 both for my account and some of my firm's client accounts. My portfolio is majority TSLA with a moderate amount of margin.

Absent any negative fundamental news around Model 3 ramp up, I will be adding shares with every 8-10% dip until the company reaches $80+ market cap. I estimate that Tesla's intrinsic value is way above that.

Then I will reassess my strategy.

 

[RobStark]

Speaking of auto firms and bankruptcy.....

Faraday Future aims to raise $1 billion in new funds as chief backer struggles

 

[Fallenone]

Speaking of auto firms and bankruptcy.....

Faraday Future aims to raise $1 billion in new funds as chief backer struggles

Not sure if it was mentioned here at TMC. But Mr. Yueting Jia has stepped down from CEO of LeEco a few days ago.

 

[GoTslaGo]

Not sure if it was mentioned here at TMC. But Mr. Yueting Jia has stepped down from CEO of LeEco a few days ago.

Still Chairman, IIRC.

 

[Fallenone]

Still Chairman, IIRC.

Yes

 

[GoTslaGo]

Put down a deposit for an inventory P100D model X Saving Q2 by one unit, probably.

You'll love it! My wife who now drives the X and graciously gave me the S loves it. She used to hate SUVs (she refused to drive any and all SUVs we owned before).

Today I had to pick up the kids from school, so I asked my wife to swap vehicles... since the purpose of the X was to make it easier for us to get/drop off the kiddos. Well, she refused. Guess she REALLY loves the X.... And of the course the kids griped about not having their favorite seats in the X.

 

[TMSE]

This is now fixed. The VIN will sort properly on the EV-CPO Hunter page.

Thank you!

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

Ford CEO went before Congress and asked for GM and Chrysler to be bailed out.

IF GM and Chrysler ended as a going concern so would Ford's suppliers. And then Ford.

In compensation Ford got a Federal Government backed $5.9B very low interest loan to invest in high efficiency vehicles

That $5.9 Billion loan was essential in allowing $F to be able to pay for their Gigafacfatory. Oh, oops, um...

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

Put down a deposit for an inventory P100D model X Saving Q2 by one unit, probably.

Congrats! You will have to share your impressions on how it compares to your P85. Maybe I will join you if TSLA reaches TT007 target levels in the next 6-12 months.

 

[Off Shore]

Gotcha. My bad

Recommending compassion is never a bad, regardless of the circumstances.

 

[techmaven]

Ford CEO went before Congress and asked for GM and Chrysler to be bailed out.

IF GM and Chrysler ended as a going concern so would Ford's suppliers. And then Ford.

In compensation Ford got a Federal Government backed $5.9B very low interest loan to invest in high efficiency vehicles

In addition to the $5.9 billion DoE ATVM loan, Ford also received $15.9 billion loan for Ford Credit:
Report: Ford Took Federal Funds, Too

Some more on the circumstances and issues with Ford and the ATVM loan:
Trump Should Be Asking: Will Ford Pay Off Its Government Loan Before Moving Small Car Production To Mexico?

 

[techmaven]

I'm having a bit trouble to wrap my head around that 95% opex not associated with S/X.

Yeah, I don't quite understand that figure either.

It would be *really nice* if a TMC representative can be on earnings calls and get some real questions in front of management. Or one of those off-the-earnings-call Q&A sessions.

 

[RobStark]

That $5.9 Billion loan was essential in allowing $F to be able to pay for their Gigafacfatory. Oh, oops, um...

Aluminum bodied F150 with 2.7L Ecotec V6 that is CAFE 2024 compliant and gets 19 city MPG and 26 MPG highway. As opposed to a 2000 Ford F150 that was smaller and less capable and got 16 city and 21 highway.

And I guess this 300 mile range popularly priced all electric Crossover that is supposed to arrive by 2020.

Legacy automakers tend not to be as capital efficient as Tesla

 

[racer26]

They said they're going to auction the first one off in March. Must be going to auction a hand-built prototype since the factory doesn't exist. That car may end up being the only one that ever gets sold to the public.

They also didn't tell us what the price is. I would be very wary to put $5,000 down, since I think there is an exceptionally high risk that FF goes bankrupt before this car gets to market, but I did sign up for a regular free reservation.

More thoughts about FF91 - What ever happened to the car they were gonna auction off in March?