2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[Intl Professor]

I'm always surprised when most people's business instincts are to copy instead of trying to differentiate.

It's a basic learning thing for us, and cephalopods as well as it turns out. I just met my youngest great granddaughter over Christmas for the first time. She's less than a year old, nonetheless we were able to bond as I taught her how to mimic by mimicking her blowing saliva bubbles.

 

[nvsblman]

Tesla isn't mentioned by name, but a fair chance they would be involved here.

http://www.azcentral.com/story/mone...ting-power-two-big-battery-projects/96371432/

 

[Krugerrand]

It's a basic learning thing for us, and cephalopods as well as it turns out. I just met my youngest great granddaughter over Christmas for the first time. She's less than a year old, nonetheless we were able to bond as I taught her how to mimic by mimicking her blowing saliva bubbles.

Or perhaps in the case JGInnovation presents it demonstrates the laziness of people. Easier to copy to get a piece of the (money) pie than to do any hard work to be different. Or maybe it demonstrates the lack of creativity in so many?

 

[winfield100]

2170 Dreadnought brain cells
aiming to shortout the shorter's brain cells
View attachment 209914

"It’s a bit like a battery being charged by a solar cell."
Firing up brain cells with light

is this a picture of a brain, or an astronomical of 100 parsec near stellar neighborhood? (or both?)

 

[Yggdrasill]

Tesla isn't mentioned by name, but a fair chance they would be involved here.

SRP negotiating for power from two big battery projects

Definitely: "SRP issued a request for proposals for the projects. One of them is a 10-megawatt battery. That is enough power to serve about 2,500 homes at once, and the project will have a capacity to deliver that power for four hours."

Four hour discharge (0.25C) is exactly what the Powerpack 2 delivers.

 

[Gerardf]

Definitely: "SRP issued a request for proposals for the projects. One of them is a 10-megawatt battery. That is enough power to serve about 2,500 homes at once, and the project will have a capacity to deliver that power for four hours."
Four hour discharge (0.25C) is exactly what the Powerpack 2 delivers.

I am sure Tesla might have a very strong offer, but AES won some projects in Arizona (At APS, Arizona Public Service). You can be sure they will give Tesla a fight, and might even give up a big part of their margin.

I am not sure it the picture in that article is relevant (says Apple ??), but the containers in it look a bit like in AES projects.

Edit : I now see this picture is NOT related to the project
(Text hidden until you enlarge)

 

[Intl Professor]

Or perhaps in the case JGInnovation presents it demonstrates the laziness of people. Easier to copy to get a piece of the (money) pie than to do any hard work to be different. Or maybe it demonstrates the lack of creativity in so many?

Thanks, you stimulate a further thought. Isn't mimicry the technique Nvidia and Tesla use to teach cars how to drive? I admit there is more in human intelligence than this, but while creativity is a practical search for random events that don't fit, or require alteration in our thinking to see how they do indeed fit in a different context, morality is a whole other category. We will never fully be secure in exploiting AI to its fullest in general intelligence until we have, by example, convinced these machines we will ethically treat their consciousness with respect as we expect them to do for our consciousness. A golden rule of robotics Asimov probably anticipated. There are some bad signs in the recently linked video of our military teaching drones how to swarm. Military applications should be banned under a universal treaty asap, but the cat is already out and propagating.

I have suggested elsewhere we have lots of philosophers with ethical concerns machines might emulate. In the bowdlerized version I remember from my first father-in-laws Sunday dinner harangues on Kant, something like this might be helpful: "if you face an ethical dilemma, try to act in accordance with a rule anyone faced with similar circumstances would use for guidance."

Unlike you creative types, "extinguished" professors like myself merely have good memories. Perhaps that's why I'm overly impressed with machine intelligence.

 

[neroden]

Question about the wash sale rule. If you purchased shares of SolarCity at lets say $50, $60 (which would currently be in the red), and you also purchased shares of Tesla within the last 30 days, would the wash sale rule be triggered if you sold the highest cost shares of Tesla (that were originally shares of SolarCity)?

Yep.

 

[neroden]

Gigafactory Jan 4th Handout published on Tesla IR. An interesting read.

Tesla Gigafactory 1 Investor Event | Tesla Motors

Finally. Thanks.

 

[jbcarioca]

Or perhaps in the case JGInnovation presents it demonstrates the laziness of people. Easier to copy to get a piece of the (money) pie than to do any hard work to be different. Or maybe it demonstrates the lack of creativity in so many?

Actually...Not. In evolution differentiation is very high risk behavior so the wisest course is to conform with some significant model behavior. Of course, to evolve requires outliers. Some (in our subjects: e.g. Preston Tucker, John DeLorean) fail and die. Some (e.g. Elon Musk, Thomas Edison) succeed. Evolutionary failures outnumber successes in all areas of biology and science. All we need to to choose the successes wisely.

All of us TSLA shareholders hope we have done so.

Nothing to do with laziness or lack of creativity, but has everything to do with risk aversion. It's biological.

 

[GoTslaGo]

I am sure Tesla might have a very strong offer, but AES won some projects in Arizona (At APS, Arizona Public Service). You can be sure they will give Tesla a fight, and might even give up a big part of their margin.

I am not sure it the picture in that article is relevant (says Apple ??), but the containers in it look a bit like in AES projects.

Edit : I now see this picture is NOT related to the project
(Text hidden until you enlarge)

Sorry, didn't read the article, but isn't AES one of Tesla Energy's partners:

Press Kit | Tesla

(Scroll to bottom of the press kit)

 

[Vitold]

Just for fun, here's 'carracter assasination' article from New Yorker:

Elon Musk Has Delivery Issues

...and here's quote from article author's book: “Driving Honda: Inside the World’s Most Innovative Car Company.”

Embrace Paradox: Honda encourages respectful disagreement and debate between opposing viewpoints, on matters large and small. New ideas often emerge from conflict.

Real Place, Real Part, Real Knowledge: Honda teaches people to argue using facts, not assumptions. One must go to the factory floor, the showroom, the parking lot, the driver’s seat, or the truck bed―whatever it takes―to get the facts and make a decision that can be supported with data.

Respect Individualism: Honda often hires people with unusual backgrounds and independent streaks. It promotes those who question the status quo and who would probably struggle in organizations that focus on rigid rules and systems.

isn't it ironic?

 

[neroden]

Just for fun, here's 'carracter assasination' article from New Yorker:

Elon Musk Has Delivery Issues

Unfortunately, Cristina Balan's story *does* show serious problems with the corporate culture. Being harassed for reporting a problem which DID become a problem for the company? (I remember the complaints about gaps between headliner and pillar!) Uh, not good at all.

And it fits with the corporate culture problems we've already identified, relating to absolutely appalling internal corporate communications. They seem to have no equivalent of a bug-tracking process, nobody who makes sure that bug reports get fixed, no regression testing on their software, nobody in charge of legal compliance, etc.

Will this kill Tesla? Not as long as they have no real competition in the electric car business. And not if they eventually fix it. But if it gets worse, I'll be taking a serious look at the stock in 2019 or 2021 to see whether they have serious competition (BYD, perhaps, or LeEco, Lucid, or Apple or Google). If the competition (which has to be a company with its own battery factory and direct non-dealer sales) is producing a car which can play an album without gaps between the tracks, and Tesla *still* hasn't managed to by then, I'll really have to think about whether they're going to fall behind.

 

[winfield100]

....We will never fully be secure in exploiting AI to its fullest in general intelligence....as we expect them to do for our consciousness....Unlike you creative types, "extinguished" professors like myself merely have good memories....

as cautionary tales about really bad outcomes of AI, read Jack Williamson's "With folded hands" or "The Humanoids", Frank Herbert's later "Dune" books, or even "When Harlie was One", among others
(since philosophy is being OT discussed)

 

[Thumper]

Just for fun, here's 'carracter assasination' article from New Yorker:

Elon Musk Has Delivery Issues

...and here's quote from article author's book: “Driving Honda: Inside the World’s Most Innovative Car Company.”

Embrace Paradox: Honda encourages respectful disagreement and debate between opposing viewpoints, on matters large and small. New ideas often emerge from conflict.

Real Place, Real Part, Real Knowledge: Honda teaches people to argue using facts, not assumptions. One must go to the factory floor, the showroom, the parking lot, the driver’s seat, or the truck bed―whatever it takes―to get the facts and make a decision that can be supported with data.

Respect Individualism: Honda often hires people with unusual backgrounds and independent streaks. It promotes those who question the status quo and who would probably struggle in organizations that focus on rigid rules and systems.

isn't it ironic?

Makes me wonder why Honda products have been so utterly non-innovative the last few years.

 

[Vitold]

Unfortunately, Cristina Balan's story *does* show serious problems with the corporate culture. Being harassed for reporting a problem which DID become a problem for the company? (I remember the complaints about gaps between headliner and pillar!) Uh, not good at all.

And it fits with the corporate culture problems we've already identified, relating to absolutely appalling internal corporate communications. They seem to have no equivalent of a bug-tracking process, nobody who makes sure that bug reports get fixed, no regression testing on their software, nobody in charge of legal compliance, etc.

Will this kill Tesla? Not as long as they have no real competition in the electric car business. And not if they eventually fix it. But if it gets worse, I'll be taking a serious look at the stock in 2019 or 2021 to see whether they have serious competition (BYD, perhaps, or LeEco, Lucid, or Apple or Google). If the competition (which has to be a company with its own battery factory and direct non-dealer sales) is producing a car which can play an album without gaps between the tracks, and Tesla *still* hasn't managed to by then, I'll really have to think about whether they're going to fall behind.

Do you have more information about Balan's case other than articles alluding to (short) interview by WSJ?

EDIT: based on her linkedin account she spent 3 years designing battery packs (peek of her career, she says). After moving (or being forced to) to the new division she quits in less than a year. It's quite possible that she just did not like her new position. It's also interesting that, it appears, that she was involved in design of the liner that was misaligned.

 

[Yuri_G]

Unfortunately, Cristina Balan's story *does* show serious problems with the corporate culture. Being harassed for reporting a problem which DID become a problem for the company? (I remember the complaints about gaps between headliner and pillar!) Uh, not good at all.

And it fits with the corporate culture problems we've already identified, relating to absolutely appalling internal corporate communications. They seem to have no equivalent of a bug-tracking process, nobody who makes sure that bug reports get fixed, no regression testing on their software, nobody in charge of legal compliance, etc.

Will this kill Tesla? Not as long as they have no real competition in the electric car business. And not if they eventually fix it. But if it gets worse, I'll be taking a serious look at the stock in 2019 or 2021 to see whether they have serious competition (BYD, perhaps, or LeEco, Lucid, or Apple or Google). If the competition (which has to be a company with its own battery factory and direct non-dealer sales) is producing a car which can play an album without gaps between the tracks, and Tesla *still* hasn't managed to by then, I'll really have to think about whether they're going to fall behind.

Lots of assumptions being made and a one sided story. Not saying Tesla can't improve in terms of communication, but that article was absolutely click bait if I've ever read any. Completely disregarded SpaceX and Tesla's amazing achievements while trying to sow doubt and make Musk equivalent to Trump. Awful, and an obvious sockpuppet for Detroit.

 

[150 kWh]

Large Luxury Car Sales In America - December 2016 & 2016 Year End - GOOD CAR BAD CAR

GCBC estimates 29,156 Model S sold in US in 2016 (26,566 in 2015).
Second place is Mercedes S-Class with 18,803 sales (21,934 in 2015).
The gap is widening.

85,774 (56,618+29,156) large luxury cars sold in 2016 overall. That would mean Model S has 34% market share in this sector.

 

[3Victoria]

Yes, I can't draw any conclusion as I don't have enough balanced information. Judging on the rest of the article's obvious bias and sele tive information, I have to assume its info on Ms. Ballan is also biased and inaccurate, too. There is not much to find on the web, except similar pieces.

 

[austinEV]

Hard to say, there is a chance that Google did a overkill with all the sensors, they are a software and datamining company so they want all the data that they can get (sensors, sensors, sensors). Tesla on the other has a hardware 1 experience and (maybe) learned what is missing and what they have to add. I just don't think Tesla would advertise with "Full Self-Driving Hardware on All Cars" when they don't have working full autonomy test cars.

Speaking of sensors, I think there will be an AP3. Tesla needs driver-facing cameras, like everyone else is planning. True, it won't matter in the far long run when cars are fully autonomous. But in the meantime, we need driver cameras to see if drivers are paying attention and/or asleep. People will doze off and bump the steering wheel and the AP2 car will disable autopilot or whatever and crash. The car is going to need to be able to get the driver's intent before full autonomy.