2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[SteveG3]

Interesting quote:

Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA)‘s stock had its “outperform” rating reaffirmed by equities researchers at Robert W. Baird in a note issued to investors on Monday, May 15th, StockTargetPrices.comreports. They presently have a $368.00 target price on the electric vehicle producer’s stock. Robert W. Baird’s price objective would suggest a potential downside of 0.92% from the stock’s current price.

End quote.

Yup... this article looks all but certain like concern trolling. Consider this paragraph selectively summarizing the past couple of months of analyst notes to exclude any with price target increases (2 or 3 at least IIRC) in favor of those that will seem bearish to the reader for one reason or another. Note in particular Pacific Crest cutting Tesla to hold two months ago is mentioned, but, PC's price target raise to $439 less than two weeks ago is not.



"TSLA has been the subject of several other research reports. Pacific Crest cut Tesla to a “hold” rating in a report on Wednesday, April 5th. Argus restated a “hold” rating on shares of Tesla in a report on Thursday, May 11th. Guggenheim restated a “buy” rating and issued a $320.00 price target on shares of Tesla in a report on Wednesday, April 19th. Vetrupgraded Tesla from a “strong sell” rating to a “sell” rating and set a $267.30 price target for the company in a report on Thursday, May 4th. Finally, Morgan Stanley cut Tesla from an “overweight” rating to an “equal weight” rating and set a $305.00 target price for the company. in a report on Monday, May 15th. Eight research analysts have rated the stock with a sell rating, twelve have issued a hold rating and thirteen have assigned a buy rating to the company. The stock has a consensus rating of “Hold” and an average price target of $288.17."

Sometimes the FUD comes with a giant neon sign saying "intellectually false rubbish," sometimes there's some subtlety.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Interesting quote:

Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA)‘s stock had its “outperform” rating reaffirmed by equities researchers at Robert W. Baird in a note issued to investors on Monday, May 15th, StockTargetPrices.comreports. They presently have a $368.00 target price on the electric vehicle producer’s stock. Robert W. Baird’s price objective would suggest a potential downside of 0.92% from the stock’s current price.

End quote.

This note was issued on May 15, when the stock was trading lower than target price, but this kind of self-contradictory statements are bound to happen, because the all-but-certain future is so drastically different from the current reality, and if you start basing your valuation prediction on the obvious future, people start calling you crazy and send you angry PM's at 4:32 am which start with: "what are you doing?"

I'm sleeping goddammit. What the hell are you doing?

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Yup... this article looks all but certain like concern trolling. Consider this paragraph selectively summarizing the past couple of months of analyst notes to exclude any with price target increases (2 or 3 at least IIRC) in favor of those that will seem bearish to the reader for one reason or another. Note in particular Pacific Crest cutting Tesla to hold two months ago is mentioned, but, PC's price target raise to $439 less than two weeks ago is not.



"TSLA has been the subject of several other research reports. Pacific Crest cut Tesla to a “hold” rating in a report on Wednesday, April 5th. Argus restated a “hold” rating on shares of Tesla in a report on Thursday, May 11th. Guggenheim restated a “buy” rating and issued a $320.00 price target on shares of Tesla in a report on Wednesday, April 19th. Vetrupgraded Tesla from a “strong sell” rating to a “sell” rating and set a $267.30 price target for the company in a report on Thursday, May 4th. Finally, Morgan Stanley cut Tesla from an “overweight” rating to an “equal weight” rating and set a $305.00 target price for the company. in a report on Monday, May 15th. Eight research analysts have rated the stock with a sell rating, twelve have issued a hold rating and thirteen have assigned a buy rating to the company. The stock has a consensus rating of “Hold” and an average price target of $288.17."

Sometimes the FUD comes with a giant neon sign saying "intellectually false rubbish," sometimes there's some subtlety.

The "article" you're so passionately criticizing was clearly generated by a mindless bot piling bits and pieces of data on a page for clicks.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

@FredLambert
"But for its vehicle battery packs, Tesla is using Nickel Cobalt Aluminum Oxide (NCA) chemistry optimized to be cycled in electric vehicles." Or, just "optimized for electric vehicles."
"...but Tesla CEO Elon Musk has been boasting about them over the past few months."

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Thank you for this very informative article; especially the last sentence: "A delivery event is planned for the end of the month."

Investors are looking forward to this event.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Tesla gets a win on the direct-sale front in Arizona

"While Tesla’s direct-sale battles in Texas, Connecticut, and Michigan..."

I wonder if it's a coincidence that:

1. Texas is the oil capital of the country;
2. Connecticut is the hedge fund capital; and
3. Michigan is the ICE capital.

 

[RobStark]

Bosch to build $1.1 billion chip plant for self-driving cars

 

[22522]

@FredLambert
"But for its vehicle battery packs, Tesla is using Nickel Cobalt Aluminum Oxide (NCA) chemistry optimized to be cycled in electric vehicles." Or, just "optimized for electric vehicles."
"...but Tesla CEO Elon Musk has been boasting about them over the past few months."

----------

Thank you for this very informative article; especially the last sentence: "A delivery event is planned for the end of the month."

Investors are looking forward to this event.

NMC and NCA.

I may have made a logic mistake, based on a JB/Elon talk a while back about recycling automotive batteries.

The statement was that car batteries cycle at a rate of about once a week [Elon normal use equivalent], vs stationary batteries that cycle daily, so the car batteries are not suitable for daily cycle applications.

So as I understood it, NCA is great at rate and NMC is good at density and cycle life.

I was wondering if a somewhat more pedestrian car would use NMC instead of NCA for life and density reasons at the cost of acceleration, or a hybrid battery module arrangement would be used that is 1/4 NCA - if it is that much better.

If anyone knows where there are discharge rate curves for the different chemistries please link. Range fights with rate, usually.

 

[MitchJi]

That was a bit of an aside. The more pertinent part of that excerpt from the earnings call was the two specific TE cell chemistries.

I'm wondering if you have any references for that no longer being the case?

I have a vague recollection that they might have eliminated the backup chemistry. I don't believe it's important. If that's correct the information is probably on Tesla's site or you should be able to find it with google.

 

[myusername]

Top Mutual Fund Sells Entire Stake In Tesla Inc (TSLA)

is this referring to the 10m share T Rowe holding?

 

[RobStark]

Public EV charging stations.

Public Hydrogen filling stations.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Top Mutual Fund Sells Entire Stake In Tesla Inc (TSLA)

is this referring to the 10m share T Rowe holding?

Clearly not. The whole TRP Global Technology Fund has under $4.9B under management, and Tesla did not make to the top ten positions of this fund in months.

Tesla shares held by this Fund is a small fraction of total TRP stake in Tesla.

Why would anybody post such nonsense?

 

[Reciprocity]

Top Mutual Fund Sells Entire Stake In Tesla Inc (TSLA)

is this referring to the 10m share T Rowe holding?

Ahh, some good FUD, I love it. Good work. Relevant quote from the article:

Spencer noted that selling his stake doesn’t mean he’s bearish on the company. He actually still believes in Tesla and Elon Musk for the long term, but “When sentiment lifts, that is when we usually take money off the table. That is hard to do. It feels bad to sell when stocks do well,” Spencer said.

 

[MitchJi]

Cons to moving to 2170 for S/X:
New form factor will likely impact pack design and some redesign of both vehicles. If the slide is only an1/8 of an inch taller, it will likely require some change in body panels. It might be possible to squeeze it in, but that doesn't seem like Elon's style.

I believe that Tesla chose a height that would work with their existing vehicles.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

The real cost of FUD is not potential selling/shorting; everyone knows the despicable FUDsters here.

The real cost is time wasted not researching the important stuff. The distraction.

 

[RobStark]

I believe that Tesla chose a height that would work with their existing vehicles.

Tesla claims they chose the dimensions that optimize cells for cost and energy/power density.

 

[RobStark]

Tesla Model S Sales Surpass 100,000 in U.S.

 

[ggies07]

Great segment on the coal industry from John Oliver last night:

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Tesla Model S Sales Surpass 100,000 in U.S.

I wonder how long it will take for Model 3 to hit that milestone.

65 months vs. 6.5 months? End-July to mid-February?

An order of magnitude quicker?

 

[ValueAnalyst]

@FredLambert - Buffett is spelled with two t's, but are you sure that he's being "used as a front" by Koch Brothers? That's quite a statement...

EGEB: ‘Energy Choice’ is politic-speak for fossil fuels, rats escaping coal, more

My understanding is that they often have been at odds: Koch Responds To Buffett: ‘My Business And Non-Profit Investments Are Much More Beneficial To Society’

Also note that Koch Brothers are heavy supporters of the Republican party whereas Buffett endorsed and raised funds for Hillary Clinton.

 

[FredLambert]

@FredLambert - Buffett is spelled with two t's, but are you sure that he's being "used as a front" by Koch Brothers? That's quite a statement...

EGEB: ‘Energy Choice’ is politic-speak for fossil fuels, rats escaping coal, more

My understanding is that they often have been at odds: Koch Responds To Buffett: ‘My Business And Non-Profit Investments Are Much More Beneficial To Society’

Also note that Koch Brothers are heavy supporters of the Republican party whereas Buffett endorsed and raised funds for Hillary Clinton.

Thanks. I fixed it.

That's not my article BTW. What I think John is saying is that the interest of Buffett and fossil fuel companies are aligned in the case of Nevada's grid and it's better for them to have Buffett as the face of their movement than their usual puppets.