I questioned Trevor about this. He answered that his source is a Tesla employee. Here is that post: Trevor answers Curt
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I questioned Trevor about this. He answered that his source is a Tesla employee. Here is that post: Trevor answers Curt
erthquake
Active Member
Thanks for asking the question Curt. Still taking the report with huge grain of salt.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
1.1B chip plant is not a lot of money in semiconductors, most of the advanced node chip plants costs $5-10B, some of the most advanced tools costs multi-million $ to buy. Chips used in auto industry used to be typically made on older technology nodes that are cheaper to make and also have less reliability issues, but automation may require more advanced nodes to give it enough computation power. Also more people are getting out of chip-fab business vs getting in, even big guys like Apple and Nvidia who do their own chip design and make millions of them, they use fabs like Samsung or TSMC to make the chips, because it takes that kind of scale and production efficiency to make money in chip fab. It would be interesting to see more details on what technology node Bosch goes with and how they plan on being cost-effective.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
NCA has greater energy density than NMC, which is why it's the choice for vehicles. At least it has been, possibly Prof. Dahn's work on NMC has pushed the density significantly higher.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Not mutually exclusive parameters. My expectation is 2170 packs could be installed without chassis modification.
Regarding the news that the Gigafactory has started making M3 cells...
1) Weren't we all talking about how they were doing that like 6-8 weeks ago? Wasn't the news that M3 packs were being hand assembled in anticipation of the M3 ramp, and that Tesla had allocated money to automate that instead of having people doing it? Now suddenly they are just starting to make M3 cells? Also, maybe hundreds are already running around. How can they have just started? Which is correct?
2) Is this this waaayyy too late to be starting? They have to make them, age them, put them in packs. If they want to deliver any new M3's at all in July this seems too late.
This whole comment by JB seems like it may have been misunderstood, or he was saying that they are "just now" saying they are making them?
1) Weren't we all talking about how they were doing that like 6-8 weeks ago? Wasn't the news that M3 packs were being hand assembled in anticipation of the M3 ramp, and that Tesla had allocated money to automate that instead of having people doing it? Now suddenly they are just starting to make M3 cells? Also, maybe hundreds are already running around. How can they have just started? Which is correct?
2) Is this this waaayyy too late to be starting? They have to make them, age them, put them in packs. If they want to deliver any new M3's at all in July this seems too late.
This whole comment by JB seems like it may have been misunderstood, or he was saying that they are "just now" saying they are making them?
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
And NMC has higher cycle life than NCA. Powerpacks and powerwalls designed with NMC to be cycled once per day. Cars using NCA designed to be cycled once per week
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
Personally I can't help but be skeptical of a single unnamed source, even if Trevor vouched for them. 1 person's perspective could be incomplete, even if they have the best of intentions and significant knowledge.
I'll be very happy if Model 3 production goes are well as this source indicates, but I'm not counting on it.
DurandalAI
Member
The sad state of the media is when the rare pieces of investigative journalism are done by..... Comedy shows.
My assumption is that initial Model 3 cells for the RC's and possibly into the initial production vehicles were made in Japan. It would make sense to perfect new chemistry there instead of at the Gigafactory. It provides a redundancy in case there are production issues at the Gigafactory.
phigment
Member
mickificki
Member
?? dont quite understand then why go 2170 if x and s aren't? because the 2170 is cheaper to make?
Hmmm, I bet they change the form factor eventually anyway, but they're in no hurry. They can't do it before December 2017, and then they will likely find that the Gigafactory is ramping up slower than Model 3 / Powerpack demand, and so on... so a lot of incentives to keep S/X supplied from the old factory. On the other hand, getting US production would seriously cut Canadian prices for Model S/X thanks to NAFTA rules.
Best to read that quote as "No immediate plans to change cell form factor for X and S." He still has to sell S and X in 2017 and doesn't want to Osborne them. I think cut over only happens if either the Model 3 launch goes very wrong or the Gigafactory ramp is very good. Either way, it's Q4 at best, more likely Q1 or Q2.
Just for a perspective on this, before revealing the dual motor drive, Elon on numerous occasions indicated that there were no plans for AWD Model S.
The truth is, if Tesla is not able to switch to the new format of cells for MS and MX for several months because they are focused on the starting and ramping up M3 production (or any other reason), they can't afford customers delaying MX and MS purchase until the new cells will make their way into these cars. So I think whatever Elon has to say about this has to be taken with the grain of salt.
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MartinAustin
Active Member
DurandalAI
Member
I would prefer that he would simply ignore these questions instead of replying with them in that manner. I understand the reasoning for the answer that was given if that is the case, but it would have been easier to just not reply. He ignores plenty of Twitter questions. I'm one of those weirdos that prefer brutal honesty as opposed to sugar coated answers or white lies.
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