2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[racer26]

Yup yup.

I'll point out that "round trip" for satellite folks means up to the bird and back down to the ground station. For computer folks that means to your destination and back.

So from an IP standpoint, a single packet round trip = two satellite round trips for a total of ~500ms packet latency. In reality with relay processing and ground station overhead ping times of 700+ ms weren't uncommon... although that's been some years ago...

True, so 'ping' times like you'd get from a typical home internet connection speed test on the SpaceX LEO network will be on the order of 15-20ms. Two 7ms round trips plus some overhead.

 

[MitchJi]

I guess conversation with Nevada Governor Brian Sandoval revealed few pointers on how to get the "co-operative arrangement" going.

She is planning on a Tesla Style Gigafactory. Not a Tesla Gigafactory.

It's pretty clear that she doesn't have a clue what she's talking about.

 

[MitchJi]

Autopilot/FSD

This is why I assume Tesla will reduce its Autopilot/FSD price from $8,000 today to $5,000 in 2019, gradually reduce it by $1,000 each year, and eventually deem it standard starting in 2024. I assume 90% gross margin for Autopilot/FSD for the next few years, but the impact on intrinsic value is not much as ASP declines while volume ramps up. I think of it as low-cost free cash flow that will fund subsequent Gigafactories during the next five years.

I predict that the price on the M3 and MS-MX will be between zero and $3,500 when the M3 is launched.

 

[erthquake]

I predict that the price on the M3 and MS-MX will be between zero and $3,500 when the M3 is launched.

That might hack off a lot of Model S/X drivers that paid full price for something that only recently became on par with AP1. That might discourage early adopters from paying for new features in the future.

 

[Starno]

When will the Q2 deliveries numbers be out ? Sunday evening ?

 

[MitchJi]

Incidentally, @ValueAnalyst, insideEVs estimated that the battery size for a Semi would be 1200kWh for a 600 mile range. This sounds reasonable. to me, although it is still speculative. Tesla Semi Truck Battery is How Big?

When you are counting up GFs, assuming 150GWh per GF (which is what I assume), this is one GF per 100K Semis, plus a little storage. You can go through a LOT of GFs in the Semi business, even if you assume GFs will produce more than 150GWh of batteries.

For example, to match the 415K truck output of Daimler (current market leader), you would need about 4 GFs at current expected capacity, while producing 30GWh of storage per GF.

Which supports the theory of larger Gigafactories.

 

[EinSV]

Which supports the theory of larger Gigafactories.

Probably. But we have so many moving parts at this point that for many things like this I personally am just sticking with guidance until Tesla/Elon says or at least strongly hints otherwise.

On the subject of moving parts .... while insideEV's 1200 kWh Semi battery guesstimate sounds at least plausible to me and is at about the midpoint of estimates that are floating around, it could easily be off by 50-100%.

 

[MitchJi]

I suspect only if the need is urgent and they cannot wait. If one of my vehicles were to crap out before my Model 3 is delivered, I would possibly consider a lease of a Leaf. I doubt that it will be 200 mile range until 2020 anyhow.

One of the primary reasons that I'm grateful to Elon-Tesla is that without him I'd be (cringe) planning to buy a Bolt or a Leaf.

 

[McRat]

One of the primary reasons that I'm grateful to Elon-Tesla is that without him I'd be (cringe) planning to buy a Bolt or a Leaf.

No you would not. Not in fashion. If you were an EV addict, there are EVs under $6k next door to you. Less than a weekend in Vegas. Or new, under $100 a month. An M3 will not be $89/m

 

[MitchJi]

If anyone had any doubts, this forum is very closely followed by FUDsters.

See the exchange below.

View attachment 233125

Please don't encourage them to start using TMC.

 

[tander]

I believe that your extreme skepticism is unwarranted. You are the equivalent of a layman arguing against climate change. Every expert disagrees with your opinion.

Of course you could be correct. OTOH every time Elon states that they are on schedule for the end of year demonstrator the odds improve. And Elon does have a record of accomplishing the impossible (landing rockets on floating barges for example).

I haven't read up on autopilot for 6 maybe 9 mo, but I recall a really good presentation from the guy (sterling anderson? Or something like that) on YouTube. He was basically saying as I understand it that the new autopilot was basically using big data by learning from every car in the fleet, every mile that they drive, even when autopilot was not engaged, it was still learning. I can't remember how many miles, but iirc they had figured out about how many fleet mi driven they would need to be pretty much unquestionably safer than a human (6billion I think?) and they should be hitting that number about by the end of the year. But this stuff is moving fast so I bet a lot can happen in 6-9 months, worth watching that vid though. It seems like everyone harps on Musk/tsla for delaying the x, but in truth from a managerial standpoint they are pretty top notch in terms of meeting deadlines which I think will be the case for m3/autopilot since to my knowledge they have no reason to delay them, as opposed to the x which was really kind of a buy time and free press project. I hope they get autopilot going, love to see all the old people for whom driving was a big freedom get a chance to keep doing it or hit the road again.

 

[everman]

My GMs have 4G LTE and a human concierge if I need anything. Which ones have you been driving?

BTW - Satellite internet is better than dial-up, but worse than DSL or 4G. And it has up-time issues.

The problems you list with satellite internet are only with geosynchronous service (which also happen to be the only kind ever to have existed). SpaceX is planning a Low Earth Orbit satellite array with massively better latency and throughput.

The difference between the two is that the GeoSat is ~ 22,000 miles away and the LeoSat is ~ 680. Will make a huge difference.

Edit: sorry, see this has been answered since the initial post.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Please don't encourage them to start using TMC.

Ha! All of them already clearly are lurking in the background.

 

[electracity]

Although the trajectory is bumpy, Tesla has been unable to grow faster than an average of 50% per year. Likewise, the entire world market has been unable to grow faster than 50% per year. I can give you a long series of reasons why this is the case -- different bottlenecks -- but it is unreasonable to assume that they will *on average* be able to grow much faster than that. (They are growing more than that this year only because they have grown at much less than that for several years.)

Getting to 8 or 9 million cars per year requires making *15* more factories the size of Fremont. Even with substantial parallelization of construction, I simply do not think this can happen before 2024. It will be limited by financing, by the ability of Kuka and Fanuc to manufacture robots, by the construction of mines for cobalt, nickel, aluminum, and lithium, etc. etc. etc. If you think it can be ramped up faster than that, you're crazy. They can probably start 3 next year and finish them by 2020, and start another 6 in 2020 and finish them by 2022, and start another 12 by 2022 and finish them by 2024... that's a reasonable guess.

Yes, Tesla is severy capital constrained relative to Musk's ambition. The answer for shareholders is licensing and joint venture to maximize the return on Tesla's IP and brand.

Tesla would need massive capital raises this decade to reach 8 million cars by 2024. The idea that much of this growth will be internally funded is fantasy.

 

[JRP3]

Ha! All of them already clearly are lurking in the background.

Unfortunately it doesn't seem to help them with their analysis.

 

[RobStark]

Tesla would need massive capital raises this decade to reach 8 million cars by 2024. The idea that much of this growth will be internally funded is fantasy.

It is only fantasy if Tesla keeps making a new product or service a non profit center.

 

[SPadival]

Mark Spiegel found someone else to nag and annoy on behalf of big auto (and big oil)...Geo hot.

Take a look at @comma_ai's Tweet: comma ai on Twitter

 

[dc_h]

My GMs have 4G LTE and a human concierge if I need anything. Which ones have you been driving?

BTW - Satellite internet is better than dial-up, but worse than DSL or 4G. And it has up-time issues.

It's not a done deal by any means, but in theory, Elkins sat network will have very low latency. At 200 miles the system will be 1% the height of geosynchronous satellites. A lot needs doing, but Elon is building a series of complimentary businesses. OpenAI feeds Tesla auto drive. SpaceX feeds Tesla and Tesla has helped SpaceX. The Satellite business definitely helps SpaceX and likely Tesla. It would, if successful, tie the world network together on a whole new level.

 

[Sparky]

Mark Spiegel found someone else to nag and annoy on behalf of big auto (and big oil)...Geo hot.

Take a look at @comma_ai's Tweet: comma ai on Twitter

This one kinda interesting too:

 

[vgrinshpun]

In case of doubt, argue with the bear instead of the bull? (just kidding)

This joke is backwards. The discussion is about the other guys battery, on which *you* are a Bull, and I am a Bear.