Well, I read that sentence from Tesla to be about revenue recognition, which is vastly different. The delivery counts are the same, so I can see that I read that sentence in other terms.
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Well, I read that sentence from Tesla to be about revenue recognition, which is vastly different. The delivery counts are the same, so I can see that I read that sentence in other terms.
So so far it's 1.85% down in AH. That's nothing. Had much much worse random falls lately for no apparent reason. But they better have good news tomorrow on GF progress or this could snowball.
It is actually based on both, must be ordered by January 15, 2017 and delivered by April 15, 2017.
From their latest email
"“Due to high demand at the end of the year, we’ve extended the order date by two weeks for customers who were unable to finalize their purchase by December 31, 2016. Any Tesla ordered by January 15, 2017 and built by April 15, 2017 will continue to benefit from free unlimited Supercharging. For Model S and Model X vehicles ordered after January 15, 2017, 400 kWh of free Supercharging credits (roughly 1,000 miles) will be included annually so that owners can continue to enjoy free Supercharging during travel.”"
Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
Maybe it should be, but manufacturers (except Tesla) report numbers of cars offloaded to dealers
Other sources may use different data
Had Elon stuck to the original plan, it certainly would have been easier: the Roadster, MS and M3. He could have met every target if he stuck to that agenda.
But along the way he added MX with gull wing doors, autopilot, powerwalls, solar tile roofs and more.
It is near miraculous that he has expanded the mission so greatly and managed to still come so close to his targets.
Small minds fixate on small targets. Not Elon. Step back and you see a man accomplishing greatness.
But along the way he added MX with gull wing doors, autopilot, powerwalls, solar tile roofs and more.
It is near miraculous that he has expanded the mission so greatly and managed to still come so close to his targets.
Small minds fixate on small targets. Not Elon. Step back and you see a man accomplishing greatness.
Minor production issue. More importantly,
It now takes longer to ship a car in the USA than to manufacture it .
Their manufacturing speed and quality is very improved.
Tesla should consider booking sales once a car is paid for,
That would diminish the delivery friction.
It now takes longer to ship a car in the USA than to manufacture it .
Their manufacturing speed and quality is very improved.
Tesla should consider booking sales once a car is paid for,
That would diminish the delivery friction.
T3slaTulips
Member
Thanks! Also, not shown is that I believe those Model X all (or many) have a price increase of about 8 or 9k with no cost increase since they stopped offering the 60kWh X.
jhm
Well-Known Member
Why is it that this forum is al
What is the expected news about GF tomorrow, been a little out of the loop lately.
What is the expected news about GF tomorrow, been a little out of the loop lately.
This is a 'meh' Q4 delivery number. Another quarter where both bulls and bears have something to focus on to make their case. I am still waiting for another 'reckless growth' quarter.
I am glad I bought protective puts (J 13 $200s). I will be happy to be wrong if we don't see a dip towards $205 tomorrow. Anything under that and I will add J19 Leaps.
Let us hope there is some great news out of CES and the GF press party.
I am glad I bought protective puts (J 13 $200s). I will be happy to be wrong if we don't see a dip towards $205 tomorrow. Anything under that and I will add J19 Leaps.
Let us hope there is some great news out of CES and the GF press party.
NannerAirCraft
Member
Any guesses on what margins and operating expenses will be for Q4 then? I'm not seeing any possibility of even a small profit.
Mike Smith
Active Member
With production and demand strong and 6400 vehicles in transit, I don't see many longs selling on these numbers. I do see a lot of shorts who have recently become unnerved seeing this as an opportunity to cover. I wouldn't be surprised at all if we end higher tomorrow.
Well, they should be confirming that cell production has started... at least that was the original plan, to start it by EOY and that's why, or so I thought at the time, they scheduled this PR event for press for January 4th.
To take stock...
50% YoY increase in deliveries.
A miss on guidance, 76,230 instead of the revised 79,000 guidance and the original 80,000 to 90,000
Vehicles in transit overhang increased by ~1,000 instead of drawing down by about 3,000.
Demand is strong - all time record high order levels in Q4, 24% higher QoQ, 52% higher YoY. BTW, not the first time they disclosed relative metrics for orders and these tidbits seem to be ignored often.
Assuming 11 weeks of production, they built 2,262/week. That's very, very good. That implies an annual rate over 100,000 and better margins.
The bears were expecting less deliveries, and in some famous cases, far less. They will press the demand issue, ignoring the all time high record order levels, which seems a foolhardy thing to do. Think Q2, 2016, or Q3, 2015, both quarters where the deliveries ran a bit short to then have big results in the next quarter. Assuming 12 production weeks in Q1, that's production of 27,000 vehicles, a new overhang of 2,500, and emptying the 6,450 Q4 overhang, for a total of 30,950. With record orders, demand isn't the issue, so it's all about delivery logistics.
50% YoY increase in deliveries.
A miss on guidance, 76,230 instead of the revised 79,000 guidance and the original 80,000 to 90,000
Vehicles in transit overhang increased by ~1,000 instead of drawing down by about 3,000.
Demand is strong - all time record high order levels in Q4, 24% higher QoQ, 52% higher YoY. BTW, not the first time they disclosed relative metrics for orders and these tidbits seem to be ignored often.
Assuming 11 weeks of production, they built 2,262/week. That's very, very good. That implies an annual rate over 100,000 and better margins.
The bears were expecting less deliveries, and in some famous cases, far less. They will press the demand issue, ignoring the all time high record order levels, which seems a foolhardy thing to do. Think Q2, 2016, or Q3, 2015, both quarters where the deliveries ran a bit short to then have big results in the next quarter. Assuming 12 production weeks in Q1, that's production of 27,000 vehicles, a new overhang of 2,500, and emptying the 6,450 Q4 overhang, for a total of 30,950. With record orders, demand isn't the issue, so it's all about delivery logistics.
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I do have concern about many of the inventory cars. Most of them are of AP1. I doubt anyone will still want those cars, and TESLA has to cut the price very much to get rid of them.
dandurston
Member
They delivered 10% less cars, but probably made 10% more per car because of the P100D and no MX60. So I see automotive margin as pretty flat. AP2 is a wildcard, as it's unclear how Tesla is going to do the accounting on that.
I doubt Q4 will have substantial ZEV credits, and operating costs likely increased with new stores etc, so my guess is a $200 million loss in Q4.
That doesn't factor in TE, which should be providing modest profit by now - maybe $20 million. And SCTY, which is a wildcard. I think if Tesla keeps it under a 100 million loss they'd be doing well.
My guiding theory going into this is that since they were not (I think) aggressively discounting in Q4, they must not be scrambling to make the numbers. But they were never on pace to knock it out of the park, though they sort of came close except for delivery overhang.
Maybe this is the start of the "great relaxing"... Instead of treating the making of quarterly numbers as all-important, they are just going to let the results flow. No discounts. Less geographic batching micromanaging. No panicky "Please take delivery Dec 31" messages to customers. It had to happen someday.
Maybe this is the start of the "great relaxing"... Instead of treating the making of quarterly numbers as all-important, they are just going to let the results flow. No discounts. Less geographic batching micromanaging. No panicky "Please take delivery Dec 31" messages to customers. It had to happen someday.
I don't really see 50% YoY as dropping the ball.
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