2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[vgrinshpun]

Baron said 30X for TSLA: 45B X 30= 1.35T. He said 40B roofing, 750B cars (I assume this includes buses, trucks, semis), 100B mobility. This leaves 450B for storage which I assume he forgot to mention.

I think that time frames are different: 13 years for 36x (4 x 3 x 3) vs. 10 years for $40B + $750B + $100B = $890B

 

[FluxCap]

For enough $$$ I can believe anything you want me to.

Couldn't help but think of good old Winston Zeddemore:

 

[Muaddid]

36x in 13 years ? geez that would send me in retirement pretty damn early and I'm a small time investor here !

 

[Mike Smith]

I think that time frames are different: 13 years for 36x (4 x 3 x 3) vs. 10 years for $40B + $750B + $100B = $890B

Storage is missing from his list of businesses nonetheless.

 

[DurandalAI]

Toyota to recall all 2,800 Mirai fuel cell cars on the road
"Toyota Motor Corp (7203.T) said on Wednesday it was recalling all of the roughly 2,800 zero-emission Mirai cars on the road due to problems with the output voltage generated by their fuel cell system."

I have a hard time understanding how Toyota can be so hell bent on betting on this technology. Do they genuinely believe hydrogen is superior to BEV?

This falls into the same denial thinking that the other majors are suffering from. Currently besides body styles, engine technology is one of the main ways to distinguish yourself from other carmakers. With EVs, the drivetrain doesn't require much in the way of NEW engineering, we've been using electric motors for a long time.

How do you distinguish yourself when you can't break away from that model? Well, your fuel cells may be a lot more efficient than your competitors, so it puts out more kW, or it takes up less space, etc.

That said, a PHEV which is say, a 60kWh battery pack plus a 15kW hydrogen fuel cell range extender wouldn't sound too bad for most people. But with charging speeds increasing, it will be an exercise in futility. With CCS supposedly moving up to 350kW and SC assumingly going to surpass that, there will be little need for it.

 

[Irishjugg]

Baron: TSLA roofs will be worth $40 B, Mobility $100 B

Edit: Spoke at length about UnderArmour, now talking about Vail, hosts didn't want to talk long about TSLA so they could get to all his big stocks, but he's showing his investment in Vail has blossomed many times over, so he's looking smart on TV

Edit: His thesis was pretty interesting. With your money becoming worth half its current buying power every 16.x years and the stock market doubling every 16.x years, an index fund pretty much keeps you even with buying power. You need to do better than an index fund to really increase your buying power over time. Thus, you need to pick a few stocks that will significantly outperform the index funds.

If you don't mind, what was his take on UA? I've got several shares with a currently disappointing cost basis haha

 

[racer26]

I think that time frames are different: 13 years for 36x (4 x 3 x 3) vs. 10 years for $40B + $750B + $100B = $890B

Baron certainly seems to agree that there is a path to a $1T valuation here.

 

[RobStark]

That's the power (and also failure) of delegation. You give the task to someone that you trust will find out the truth of the matter. He himself doesn't have to investigate.

He doesn't have to but he chooses to.

That is the power of a hands on CEO.

 

[DurandalAI]

He doesn't have to but he chooses to.

That is the power of a hands on CEO.

I apologize if my post sounded snarky. I also had not seen the article where it was said he was looking into it.

 

[racer26]

He doesn't have to but he chooses to.

That is the power of a hands on CEO.

Elon very much understands the notion that if you want a job done right, you have to do it yourself. He is not afraid to get his hands dirty to ensure his companies are doing the best they possibly can.

There are some things - particularly matters of company integrity - that he is unwilling to delegate. He wants to be able to say that he knows first-hand that it is not true.

 

[PKINOC]

So, just a quick summary of Baron's CNBC interview on TSLA (some points were covered above):

1. In ten years:
   Solar roofs - $40B business
   Cars - $750B business
   Mobility - $100b business

Is the "business" revenue or market cap???

 

[vgrinshpun]

Is the "business" revenue or market cap???

I believe it was market cap. Baron was hurried by the hosts, and he said something like "in ten years solar roof will be $40B business, cars - $750B, mobility $100B". My interpretation is that he meant market cap.

 

[JRP3]

That said, a PHEV which is say, a 60kWh battery pack plus a 15kW hydrogen fuel cell range extender wouldn't sound too bad for most people.

It should sound pretty bad. A "range extender" which is far more expensive than an ICE and essentially has no place to refuel? No thanks.

 

[racer26]

It should sound pretty bad. A "range extender" which is far more expensive than an ICE and essentially has no place to refuel? No thanks.

I think the right idea for a range extender, if one were necessary (they're not!), is actually a turbine engine.

They're tough to make, as they require high-precision machining, but have the fewest moving parts, and the fewest things to go wrong, AND they'll run on basically anything that burns. Thus, it can be fired with more environmentally friendly fuels than gasoline or fracking-sourced hydrogen. Furthermore, they're great for steady-state operation, where they can just operate at peak power output as an electricity generator.

I still don't understand why a 'series'-hybrid like the Volt can't run indefinitely on the electric motors powered by the ICE generator. Volt added a bunch of extra mechanical complexity to allow the ICE to drive the wheels directly when the battery level reaches a critical state. If I were designing such a car, I would have simply sized the ICE gen-set such that it could supply enough electricity to operate at highway speed indefinitely, as long as there were gasoline fuel. The physics says that should be possible with an engine the size of Volt's. Not sure what I'm missing.

 

[Bobfitz1]

36x in 13 years ? geez that would send me in retirement pretty damn early and I'm a small time investor here !

Ron Baron's possible 36x by 2030 lines up quite nicely (I think) with possible time frame for SpaceX to be taking folks willing to pay a few hundred K (2017 dollars) round trip to Mars. I will go out on a colonial transport maneuvering paddle and predict there will be a decent contingent of Tesla longs on the first of these. If I don't get taken out by a non autonomous driving pie truck before then, I'll be there and buying the first round of drinks for my fellow longs.

 

[JBRR]

2016 Fatality Estimates

"For the first time in nearly a decade, preliminary data from the National Safety Councilestimates that as many as 40,000 people died in motor vehicle crashes in 2016. That marks a 6% increase over 2015 and a 14% increase over 2014 – the most dramatic two-year escalation in 53 years."

 

[JRP3]

I still don't understand why a 'series'-hybrid like the Volt can't run indefinitely on the electric motors powered by the ICE generator. Volt added a bunch of extra mechanical complexity to allow the ICE to drive the wheels directly when the battery level reaches a critical state. If I were designing such a car, I would have simply sized the ICE gen-set such that it could supply enough electricity to operate at highway speed indefinitely, as long as there were gasoline fuel. The physics says that should be possible with an engine the size of Volt's. Not sure what I'm missing.

Direct connection to the wheels is more efficient than ICE - generator - inverter - electric motor.

 

[DurandalAI]

I still don't understand why a 'series'-hybrid like the Volt can't run indefinitely on the electric motors powered by the ICE generator. Volt added a bunch of extra mechanical complexity to allow the ICE to drive the wheels directly when the battery level reaches a critical state. If I were designing such a car, I would have simply sized the ICE gen-set such that it could supply enough electricity to operate at highway speed indefinitely, as long as there were gasoline fuel. The physics says that should be possible with an engine the size of Volt's. Not sure what I'm missing.

It's an efficiency thing, from what I understand. It ends up being more efficient from an MPG perspective if it uses the planetary gears instead of a true serial hybrid.

 

[PKINOC]

Ron Baron's possible 36x by 2030 lines up quite nicely (I think) with possible time frame for SpaceX to be taking folks willing to pay a few hundred K (2017 dollars) round trip to Mars. I will go out on a colonial transport maneuvering paddle and predict there will be a decent contingent of Tesla longs on the first of these. If I don't get taken out by a non autonomous driving pie truck before then, I'll be there and buying the first round of drinks for my fellow longs.

Don't forget your interplanetary barf bags! LOL!

 

[kenliles]

Baron summary article up
Billionaire Ron Baron expects mind-boggling returns from Elon Musk-led Tesla

Full interview still behind paywall
The full interview with billionaire investor Ron Baron on his approach for 2017, favorite stocks