2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[racer26]

I don't understand the article. Either the UAW article was a BS hit piece or there may be issues at the plant with working conditions for Elon to investigate. Both makes no sense.

Seems simple enough to me:

Elon doesn't think its a problem and that its just UAW grandstanding, but in typical Elon fashion is willing to entertain someone's opinion long enough to soundly debunk it. UAW says there's problems? Show me. We'll make em right if they exist, no need for hiding behind UAW to get the problems fixed.

 

[RobStark]

I don't understand the article. Either the UAW article was a BS hit piece or there may be issues at the plant with working conditions for Elon to investigate. Both makes no sense.

How does he know for a fact that Jose Moran's charges are false unless he investigates himself?

 

[JBRR]

Toyota to recall all 2,800 Mirai fuel cell cars on the road
"Toyota Motor Corp (7203.T) said on Wednesday it was recalling all of the roughly 2,800 zero-emission Mirai cars on the road due to problems with the output voltage generated by their fuel cell system."

I have a hard time understanding how Toyota can be so hell bent on betting on this technology. Do they genuinely believe hydrogen is superior to BEV?

 

[WarpedOne]

Do they genuinely believe hydrogen is superior to BEV?

For enough $$$ I can believe anything you want me to.

 

[neroden]

Not sure if Musk is trying to temper expectations, but he didn't sound as confident about the Model 3 "hopefully getting into production later this year" as I would have liked.

Hear his remarks starting at the 1:05 mark:

Or am I just over-analyzing?

I think someone has finally convinced Musk to tamp down his public expressions of optimism.

 

[neroden]

The tape I listened to was full of wind noise, but what I heard was "{in this region} ____X______" who invented algebra; globally: Newton...", etc.
So I'm pretty sure the word that Steve and Int'l Prof were trying to make into that Samarkand astronomer, or Galileo, etc., was, in fact, "globally".

For reference, algebra was invented by
Muhammad ibn Musa al-Khwarizmi

Born in Central Asia (In Khwarizm, in what is now Uzbekistan); ethnically Persian (Iranian); worked for the Abbassid Caliphate (the Muslim Empire of the period); during the Islamic Golden Age when all the leading scientists were Muslim.

 

[vgrinshpun]

I don't understand the article. Either the UAW article was a BS hit piece or there may be issues at the plant with working conditions for Elon to investigate. Both makes no sense.

At least one claim made by Jose Moran was demonstrated to be a BS - low pay. Fremont workers have higher starting pay than autoworkers at other plants, but average works out to be lower because plant is significantly younger and has overall lower average seniority.

There could be something to other claims made, for example some plant production management that is not responsive to workers concerns that need to be investigated before judgement can be made.

 

[SBenson]

Not sure if Musk is trying to temper expectations, but he didn't sound as confident about the Model 3 "hopefully getting into production later this year" as I would have liked.

Hear his remarks starting at the 1:05 mark:

Or am I just over-analyzing?

I'm afraid you are not over analyzing this. It's quite likely others are over analyzing everything else that came out.

 

[myusername]

Not sure if Musk is trying to temper expectations, but he didn't sound as confident about the Model 3 "hopefully getting into production later this year" as I would have liked.

Hear his remarks starting at the 1:05 mark:

Or am I just over-analyzing?

this is probably the least cool thing I've ever heard anyone say... I've made comments like this jokingly... but the is pure cheese (2:57):

"if you like pure unadulturat... um pure unadulturated joy... on tap... whenever you want, then this is the car to have."

 

[geneclean55]

Anyone listening to Ron Baron now?

 

[Mike Smith]

Anyone listening to Ron Baron now?

He'll be talking about Tesla momentarily on CNBC

 

[JBRR]

Ron Baron: "Tesla 4x current price in 2020, 3x more in 2025"

 

[Mike Smith]

Ron Baron: "Tesla 4x current price in 2020, 3x more in 2025"

And 3x again by 2030

 

[Papafox]

Baron: TSLA roofs will be worth $40 B, Mobility $100 B

Edit: Spoke at length about UnderArmour, now talking about Vail, hosts didn't want to talk long about TSLA so they could get to all his big stocks, but he's showing his investment in Vail has blossomed many times over, so he's looking smart on TV

Edit: His thesis was pretty interesting. With your money becoming worth half its current buying power every 16.x years and the stock market doubling every 16.x years, an index fund pretty much keeps you even with buying power. You need to do better than an index fund to really increase your buying power over time. Thus, you need to pick a few stocks that will significantly outperform the index funds.

 

[Mike Smith]

Baron: TSLA roofs will be worth $40 B, Mobility $100 B

Cars: 750B

 

[Mike Smith]

Ron Baron: "high confidence" of TSLA 4X by 2020

 

[DurandalAI]

How does he know for a fact that Jose Moran's charges are false unless he investigates himself?

That's the power (and also failure) of delegation. You give the task to someone that you trust will find out the truth of the matter. He himself doesn't have to investigate.

 

[vgrinshpun]

So, just a quick summary of Baron's CNBC interview on TSLA (some points were covered above):

1. His TSLA position is around 1.5M shares, average price - around $208.
2. On Trump: it is better to be in the room when decisions are made, than outside of the room.
3. Baron's plan:
   2020 - 4x his investment, very high probability
   2025 - additional 3x, probability lower than 2020
   2030 - yet additional 3x, probability lower than 2025, but higher than 50%
4. Solar city is a way to capitalize on growth in electricity consumption associated with electrification of transportation. 40% of US consumption of electricity is by single house dwellings. Replacing two ICE cars per house with EV will increase household electricity consumption by 60%, so overall demand is going to grow by roughly 24%.
5. In ten years:
   Solar roofs - $40B business
   Cars - $750B business
   Mobility - $100b business

 

[winfield100]

So, just a quick summary of Barron's CNBC interview on TSLA (some points were covered above):

1. His TSLA position is around 1.5M shares, average price - around $208.
2. On Trump: it is better to be in the room when decisions are made, than outside of the room.
3. Baron's plan:
   2020 - 4x his investment, very high probability
   2025 - additional 3x, probability lower than 2020
   2030 - yet additional 3x, probability lower than 2025, but higher than 50%
4. Solar city is a way to capitalize on growth in electricity consumption associated with electrification of transportation. 40% of US consumption of electricity is by single house dwellings. Replacing two ICE cars per house with EV will increase household electricity consumption by 60%, so overall demand is going to grow by roughly 24%.
5. In ten years:
   Solar roofs - $40B business
   Cars - $750B business
   Mobility - $100b business

a dumb question
is it
4x * 3x * 3x = 36x?

 

[vgrinshpun]

a dumb question
is it
4x * 3x * 3x = 36x?

YES.