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2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

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Am I the only one starting to get amused by the market not reacting to stories like that anymore?

Like hey, people do dumb things in cars all the time. Most of the time its not newsworthy.

My interpretation is that market might be slow to react to such a story due to mass media being slow to pick it up.

Mid-term thinking is that AP 2.0 might be "too beta" for too long. Potentially a drag on the stock if you ask me, just being cautious with short-term plays.
 
Data point. So our Model X "went into production" on Thursday. Just saturday I got an email from Tesla saying it was completed and being set up to be shipped for delivery. That ramp doesn't seem so implausible to me...

Please help me out with the logic here. Is your logic this?
"One car produced in 2 days" implies/indicates "500k cars can be easily produced in a year" ?

PS: 500k cars a year means, one car is produced every minute., 24 hours a day, 365 days a year.
Now, this is obviously not total time to produce a car, but the frequency of production. You might get the idea now, that these two are unrelated items.
 
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I must admit that I think that 500,000 Tesla cars shipped in 2018 is amazingly optimistic, and even though I'm a Tesla/Elon fanboy, I think that target will be missed. I will be happy if 300,000 Tesla vehicles ship in 2018, I will be exuberant if 400,000 ship in 2018. If 500,000 ship in 2018, I'll be getting my Model 3 for free in 2018 due to share prices. :D
Your reaction can be different, if M3 also makes losses like Model S & X, or makes more losses. Then, the quarterly losses will be even bigger with higher production numbers, and dilution will be happening much faster.
 
Please help me out with the logic here. Is your logic this?
"One car produced in 2 days" implies/indicates "500k cars can be easily produced in a year" ?

PS: 500k cars a year means, one car is produced every minute., 24 hours a day, 365 days a year.
Please tell me you're not so obtuse as to believe that the factory producing one car per minute means that one car takes one minute to produce.
 
Please help me out with the logic here. Is your logic this?
"One car produced in 2 days" implies/indicates "500k cars can be easily produced in a year" ?

PS: 500k cars a year means, one car is produced every minute., 24 hours a day, 365 days a year.

The most complex car is the X. They will open the Gigafactory(s?) (IMHO) for an additional production center once Model 3 is up and running.
 
Your reaction can be different, if M3 also makes losses like Model S & X, or make more losses. Then, the quarterly losses will be even bigger with higher production numbers, and dilution will be happening much faster.
S and X do not make losses. Period. This is not open for argument, they simply don't. The financials demonstrate that clearly.
 
*vomits* The drivel being posted on the Motley Fool these days..
Tesla's Latest Challenge: An Oversupplied Battery Market -- The Motley Fool

" Companies around the world are building out battery capacity to fill the needs of automakers and energy storage developers alike. And rising capacity is driving overcapacity, leading to lower battery prices."
Oh, so it's overcapacity that's driving the lowering of battery prices? Heck, I thought it was the continual improvements in battery chemistry. This guy has schooled me on this.

" Sources I've talked to say that finding supply is the least of their worries, and prices on the open market are below $300 per kWh and falling."
So what he's telling me is that so far Tesla has a $100/kWh advantage currently.

"On the demand side, EVs haven't taken hold as fast as many had predicted. In 2008, President Obama said he wanted 1 million EVs on the road by 2015."
But 370,000+ M3 reservations are to be ignored.

Edit: Formatting for clarity.
 
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Your reaction can be different, if M3 also makes losses like Model S & X, or makes more losses. Then, the quarterly losses will be even bigger with higher production numbers, and dilution will be happening much faster.

Each car produced adds positively to revenue and profit. The profit margin is significant. As the number of cars produced grows, the fixed costs of running the business become smaller percentages of overall costs. The Model 3 is designed to be cost efficient. As production ramps exponentially, the bottom line profits should be substantial.
 
some interesting notes on price action.

1 the price range over the last month has compressed down to < 10% of the share price. this i think is the lowest level since last october and indicates price has found some stability in this 242-262 range.

2 tesla made a new 1 month trading low the day goldman downgraded to sell, feb. 27. today march 27 tesla is making a new 1 month high. if you go back and review all the new one month lows since late 2013, you will see that tesla always made several more fresh 1 month lows before recovering to a 1 month high. so this little action of making a 1 month low and then quickly recovering to a 1 month high, it's not something that's been seen in at least 3 years. this indicates to me a different type of strength to this trend than the trends of the past few years.

3 i've read commentary from other users about the monthly chart setup (maybe @jesselivenomore ). i attached that monthly chart, which looks like an extended bull flag in the making. the narrow (in a log sense) range of the last 3 years implies that a breakout above the range could be quite powerful.
correction, monthly chart was posted by @austinEV - link - mine is practically plagiarizing him

4 the price action is lined up with the fundamental developments of the tesla energy and roof launch and the model 3 ramp.

5 compared to my last involvement with this stock in 2013, this time around awareness seems much higher. i remember elon's twitter account having i think 100k followers back in late 2012/early 2013. this time around he's at 7.5 million. it's almost two orders of magnitude difference.

6 i don't think there's another company running over $5 billion in annual revenue that is on pace to double (or triple) it's revenue run rate over the coming 18-24 months.

7 if they can ever turn a profit for a few quarters, there will be a near certain s&p 500 addition in the future as tesla is one of the largest american companies not in the s&p 500. to see how much that can affect a stock, look at what happened to ulta, which had a much smaller weight than tesla would have. at that point, just about every person with a 401k will be investing in tesla.

4-7 above are the fundamental factors that would drive a dramatic breakout of this 3 year range. the hardest thing for me and what i try to remind myself every day is that the time scale is playing out in months, not days or weeks. so the trade has to be managed carefully to make sure it doesn't wear out one's ability to hang on to an outsized position.
View attachment 219997

to add #8, your conclusion that demand for shares among institutions, based on your Fidelity experience of getting in on the secondary, in retrospect, was right on the money. Once secondary closed last week (3/22), and institutions sorted out what they got in shares and notes, they perhaps are out buying to satisfy the demand that went unmet.
 
Your reaction can be different, if M3 also makes losses like Model S & X, or makes more losses. Then, the quarterly losses will be even bigger with higher production numbers, and dilution will be happening much faster.
Can't tell if serious or trolling
c71853cf5c1a12e7d5cce241a74ff6715c46e5109d9993d57cebb7dc7d8fbd01.jpg
 
From behind the paywall at WSJ:

Elon Musk Launches Neuralink to Connect Brains With Computers


Building a mass-market electric vehicle and colonizing Mars aren't ambitious enough for Elon Musk. The billionaire entrepreneur now wants to merge computers with human brains to help people keep up with machines.

The founder and chief executive of Tesla Inc.(TSLA) and Space Exploration Technologies Corp. has launched another company called Neuralink Corp., according to people familiar with the matter. Neuralink is pursuing what Mr. Musk calls "neural lace" technology, implanting tiny brain electrodes that may one day upload and download thoughts.

Mr. Musk has taken an active role setting up the California-based company and may play a significant leadership role, according to people briefed on Neuralink's plans, a bold step for a father of five who already runs two technologically complex businesses.

Mr. Musk didn't respond to a request for comment. Max Hodak, who said he is a Neuralink co-founder, confirmed the company's existence and Mr. Musk's involvement. He described the company as "embryonic" and said plans are still in flux but declined to provide additional details. Mr. Hodak previously founded Transcriptic, a startup that provides robotic lab services accessible over the internet.

Mr. Musk, 45 years old, is part businessman, part futurist. He splits his time between Tesla, which is under pressure to deliver its $35,000 sedan on time, and SpaceX, which aims to launch a satellite-internet business and a rocket that can bring humans to Mars. He is also pushing development of a super high-speed train called Hyperloop.

Somewhere in his packed schedule, he has found time to start a neuroscience company that plans to develop cranial computers, most likely to treat intractable brain diseases first, but later to help humanity avoid subjugation at the hands of intelligent machines.

"If you assume any rate of advancement in [artificial intelligence], we will be left behind by a lot," he said at a conference last June.

The solution he proposed was a "direct cortical interface" -- essentially a layer of artificial intelligence inside the brain -- that could enable humans to reach higher levels of function.

Mr. Musk has teased that he is developing the technology himself. "Making progress [on neural lace]," he tweeted last August, "maybe something to announce in a few months." In January he tweeted that an announcement might be coming shortly.

He hasn't made an official announcement, but Neuralink registered in California as a "medical research" company last July.

Mr. Musk has discussed financing Neuralink primarily himself, including with capital borrowed against equity in his other companies, according to a person briefed on the plans.

Neuralink has also discussed a possible investment from Founders Fund, the venture firm started by Peter Thiel, with whom Mr. Musk co-founded payments company PayPal, according to people familiar with the matter.

In recent weeks, Neuralink hired leading academics in the field, according to another person familiar with the matter. They include Vanessa Tolosa, an engineer at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and an expert in flexible electrodes; Philip Sabes, a professor at the University of California in San Francisco, who studies how the brain controls movement; and Timothy Gardner, a professor at Boston University who is known for implanting tiny electrodes in the brains of finches to study how the birds sing.

Reached by phone, Dr. Gardner confirmed he is working for Neuralink, but declined to elaborate on its plans. Dr. Sabes declined to comment. Dr. Tolosa didn't respond to a request for comment.

It is unclear what sorts of products Neuralink might create, but people who have had discussions with the company describe a strategy similar to SpaceX and Tesla, where Mr. Musk developed new rocket and electric-car technologies, proved they work, and is now using them to pursue more ambitious projects.

These people say the first products could be advanced implants to treat intractable brain disorders like epilepsy or major depression, a market worth billions of dollars. Such implants would build on simpler electrodes already used to treat brain disorders like Parkinson's disease.

If Neuralink can prove the safety and efficacy of its technology and receive government approval, perhaps it then could move on to cosmetic brain surgeries to enhance cognitive function, these people say. Mr. Musk alluded to this possibility in his comments last June, describing how humans struggle to process and generate information as quickly as they absorb it.

"Your output level is so low, particularly on a phone, your two thumbs just tapping away," he said. "This is ridiculously slow. Our input is much better because we have a high bandwidth visual interface into the brain. Our eyes take in a lot of data."

Others pursuing the idea include Bryan Johnson, the founder of online payments company Braintree, who plans to pump $100 million into a startup called Kernel, which has 20 people and is pursuing a similar mission.

Mr. Johnson said he has spoken to Mr. Musk and that both companies want to build better neural interfaces, first to attack big diseases, and then to expand human potential.

Facebook Inc. has posted job ads for "brain-computer interface engineers" and other neuroscientists at its new secret projects division. And the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency is investing $60 million over four years to develop implantable neural interface technology.

The technology faces several barriers. Scientists must find a safe, minimally invasive way to implant the electrodes, and a way to keep them stable in the brain. It also isn't yet possible to record the activity of millions of the brain's neurons to decode complex decisions, or distinguish when someone wants to eat a bowl of spaghetti or go to the bathroom.

Then there is persuading people to get elective brain surgery.

In comments published by Vanity Fair on Sunday, Mr. Musk said "for a meaningful partial-brain interface, I think we're roughly four or five years away."

If Mr. Musk indeed takes an active leadership role at Neuralink, that would raise more questions about his own personal bandwidth.

Tesla is building the largest battery factory on the planet to supply its forthcoming Model 3 electric vehicle, and it will need to produce hundreds of thousands of cars to meet its goal and justify its lofty market capitalization, which is approaching that of Ford Motor Co.

SpaceX has struggled to launch rockets fast enough to send satellites into orbit for its customers. Ultimately it wants to launch an internet-access business powered by more than 4,000 low-earth orbiting satellites, ferry space tourists to the moon and then bring astronauts to Mars.

Even so, Mr. Musk has proved many naysayers wrong. Traditional auto makers said he could never sell a popular electric car. Military-industrial graybeards scoffed at the idea he could even launch a rocket.

Write to Rolfe Winkler at [email protected]
 
Elon Musk Launches Neuralink to Connect Brains With Computers

[..] The founder and chief executive of Tesla Inc. and Space Exploration Technologies Corp. has launched another company called Neuralink Corp., according to people familiar with the matter. Neuralink is pursuing what Mr. Musk calls “neural lace” technology, implanting tiny brain electrodes that may one day upload and download thoughts.

Mr. Musk didn’t respond to a request for comment. Max Hodak, who said he is a “member of the founding team,” confirmed the company’s existence and Mr. Musk’s involvement. He described the company as “embryonic” and said plans are still in flux but declined to provide additional details. Mr. Hodak previously founded Transcriptic, a startup that provides robotic lab services accessible over the internet.

In recent weeks, Neuralink hired leading academics in the field, according to another person familiar with the matter. They include Vanessa Tolosa, an engineer at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and an expert in flexible electrodes; Philip Sabes, a professor at the University of California in San Francisco, who studies how the brain controls movement; and Timothy Gardner, a professor at Boston University who is known for implanting tiny electrodes in the brains of finches to study how the birds sing.

If Mr. Musk indeed takes an active leadership role at Neuralink, that would raise more questions about his own personal bandwidth.
 
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yeah- agree. Although I dislike the continued nepotism and related- I saw this as a positive. And actually think it's a good idea although not likely to be effective given the surrounding circumstances - I still like it conceptually--

For all those same reasons I had to struggle to agree with it to, and I think those will be the points the press focuses on instead of any positive opportunities this might create.

On another note, my wife and I have really enjoyed following the Tesla Project Love Day entries, and look often for anything new. Have you been watching them with your daughter? Does she have a favorite yet? Thank you both once again for making that happen!
 
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