Looks like giant cpu cooler. AI has taken over?!
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Re: competition - how about on top of the Supercharger network, the owner gets about 1,000 miles for free? Why would anyone buy a "competitor" EV when Tesla gives a long distance network + free travel?
No worries from me.....take your porche/Audi/VW/Bolt around the city all you want, I'll be driving cross country
No worries from me.....take your porche/Audi/VW/Bolt around the city all you want, I'll be driving cross country
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Cap-ex is capitalized and depreciated over the expected life of the asset, so the impact on margins is not as lumpy as one would expect.
Say, for example, Tesla makes $1B of capital investments (cap-ex) to ramp up from 5k/w to 10k/w. Without getting into the nitty gritty of accounting rules here, that $1B would not all at once appear on the income statement as a massive expense in 1Q18 or 2Q18. Instead, it would appear as increased depreciation expense only as the assets purchased are depreciated throughout, say, the following one or two or however many years the management decides (and auditors agree) the life of the asset is.
[for the accounting savvy: Tesla uses units of production method of depreciation, not straight line. The example above is simplified for illustration]
Also, management has said cap-ex needed to get from 5k per week to 10k per week isn't nearly as much as getting to 5k per week in the first place.
Anyway... short answer is: not really.
DurandalAI
Member
Considering how much EVGo charges monthly just to make charging rates somewhat near parity with gasoline pricing, competitors don't stand a chance when it comes to cross country driving. $20/mo is $240/yr plus $0.20/min @ 50kW. Which means $96 on top of that $240/yr to equal the free SC charging you get with Tesla. (Or if you don't want the monthly plan, it's $40 for your 8 charging sessions * 50kWh each to equal 400kWh, for a total of $136/yr.)Re: competition - how about on top of the Supercharger network, the owner gets about 1,000 miles for free? Why would anyone buy a "competitor" EV when Tesla gives a long distance network + free travel?
No worries from me.....take your porche/Audi/VW/Bolt around the city all you want, I'll be driving cross country
To make it easy for you "Not Howard Roark but really Howard Oark", Dorothy Parkers view of Ayn Rand and her views was the book should not be put down, but violently thrown from a window.
Your comment about a dead girl in bed was as about offputting and vile as I have seen in awhile, and i'm being kind and the discussion with you from me is ended permanently.
a tiny favor please. I was asked what price i would sell TSLA at (never, maybe 30 years, maybe if i need to pay to be a colonist) but asked for a future valuation
If the Tesla ecosystem was $2 Trillion, what would that equate a stock price of. thanksfor any answer (or anybody)
I will sell other stocks first, not TSLA, for an MS down payment when I have the courage. Can do an M3 without stock sales. Maybe when we are at SP $1000 might sell for another Tesla. Or house!!
Waiting4M3
Active Member
Just want to point out that the $7500 incentive goes into consumer's pocket, and not Tesla's, so it shouldn't change the margin directly. The only impact the tax incentive could have on margin would be via demand -> volume -> economy of scale. Since TM3 has a long backlog, and appears to have interested buyers even without the incentive, I think it's safe to assume that the incentive won't matter much to the margin. But I'm sure it the shorts won't see it this way.
I see the following Seeking Alpha playbook timeline:
- Aug '17, delivery event is just a show, where are signs of any TM3 ramp?
- Sep '17, Can Tesla really ramp to thousands of TM3?
- Oct '17, no sign of non-Tesla customer delivery, is Tesla lying about ramp?
- Nov '17, after Q3'17 ER, look at how bad the margins on TM3 is!!!
- Dec '17, ok there are signs of non-Tesla customer delivery, but can Tesla really hit 20K in Dec?
- Jan '18, Q4 delivery # is now out, 20K delivery was missed (20K produced is irrelevant), and Tesla losing hundreds of millions if we multiply the 20K by the Q3'17 TM3 margin.
- Feb '18, Q4'17ER should be out, maybe margin is OK, but Tesla is quickly approaching the 200K incentive cut off, just wait till it goes over and demand will drop to 0
- Mar '18, Tesla marching towards certain death as 200K threshold is crossed
- Apr-Jun '18, incentive going away after this quarter, Tesla death watch countdown continues
- Jul-Sep '18, incentive really going away after this quarter, last quarter was only 50%, now the Tesla death watch really begins
- Oct '18, ok forget about TM3, semi is not manufacturable, no customers. And where is the MY reveal? is it delayed?!
racer26
Active Member
ValueAnalyst
Closed
I can try to estimate, but first I would need to understand what you mean by "$2 Trillion ecosystem" exactly.
Do you mean that you expect Tesla's market capitalization to be $2 Trillion or that Tesla's total addressable market is $2 Trillion?
If you mean the former, just divide your market capitalization estimate with ~180 million diluted shares outstanding (assuming no equity secondaries or any stock buybacks in later years).
If you mean the latter, you would need to provide a market share estimate as well as a long-term net income margin estimate, and the discussion could get very hairy.
adiggs
Well-Known Member
It's like you have a crystal ball or something.
That's a play I'll enjoy watching over the next year +
Reciprocity
Active Member
I didnt mean to insinuate that Tesla would receive the the tax credits, but I think you explained it perfectly as a tool for spur demand. Even though they do not receive the credit for all sales they do receive them for leases if I havnt lost my mind? High margins are critical for what you discussed as the countdown to the death of Tesla due to the lack of tax incentives. high margins gives Tesla pricing power. I suspect that Tesla will either add some value and/or lower the price by the end of 2018 to compensate, more then likely the former then the latter. An Augmented reality HUD maybe? At the same time they will start to use 2170 based packs in S/X and move those vehicles up market to support the higher price for the end consumers who purchase without incentives. Even though Fed incentives are going away, there could be additional state incentives that fill the void. California and NY for example. I dont think incentives are required for Tesla's success, but I do think that Tesla needs to achieve their goals of 30% GM or more to finance the future. The incentives would only add up to only 7% of the ASP for this theoretical up market version of the S/X so you can split the difference in terms of adding value and lowering costs. I would not be shocked if Tesla couldnt hit close to 37% GM without a price drop to compensate for the lost incentives. I base this on the marginal cost quoted by the SpaceX engineer who said the marginal cost to produce the Model S was around $30K. The marginal cost would be the theoretical minimum cost. Of course there is spoilage/breakage and the amortized costs of the P&E, but the more cars you can make the smaller those costs are. The more mature the product is the closer they will get to that marginal cost.
I am sorry if it sounds judgement at all, but it is true. Do people really need a luxury entry level car when a Camry will do? Entire marketing strategies revolve around the idea of getting the "premium" product because "you are missing out on the best". Marketing in general preys on people's insecurities to sell something we don't really need and we all fall for it (Myself included, I drive a Tesla too after all). Anyway, getting off topic.
My whole point is that Tesla is entering the mass market market by going through the luxury entry market (huge market worldwide) first and there are no competitors in the foreseeable future in this area... certainly not the Chevy Bolt, excellent car as it may be.
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Waiting4M3
Active Member
howardoark
Member
Edwin Edwards once said the only way he would not be re-elected was if he was caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy. It was a joke, I apologize for offending you. And I agree with Ms. Parker about Ayn Rand.
I am really surprised that with so many Model 3 pictures, we have only one picture of a VIN.
The Tesla information gathering network is really falling down on the job.
The Tesla information gathering network is really falling down on the job.
Well, this is going to backfire really really badly the first time a driverless car kills someone. And with this insane level of deregulation, it'll happen sooner rather than later.
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