2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[TradingInvest]

I'm glad that they reduced the BFR's diameter from 12m to 9m. This will reduce the cost and technical challenges considerably. The 12m version can be built in 20 years if we ever need it.

In a few years Falcon, Falcon 9, Dragon will all become obsolete. Elon will have more time to work on Tesla and boring projects.

 

[dennis]

If you are ever in Dublin, CA stop by and give a shout out to Brian and the whole Tesla team ~ Please

Brian was my service adviser in Fremont when I had my Signature upgraded to the P+ suspension. When Sunnyvale SC opened he was promoted to manage it and did a great job. Now he is in Dublin. I agree he is a super guy.

 

[FredTMC]

I'm glad that they reduced the BFR's diameter from 12m to 9m. This will reduce the cost and technical challenges considerably. The 12m version can be built in 20 years if we ever need it.

In a few years Falcon, Falcon 9, Dragon will all become obsolete. Elon will have more time to work on Tesla and boring projects.

I think I remember reading somewhere that at 9m diameter they can reuse more existing tooling.


That aside, I think I just realized something dramatic.

1) Hyperloop destroys short-haul commercial airline flights

2) BFR destroys international/long-haul commercial airline flights

Ummm. Wow

 

[Drumheller]

Elon will be speaking at the battery event in about 3.5 hrs (7pm in Jamestown SA)

Do you, or anyone else here, have a link where this can be watched / listened to? Thanks!

 

[aubreymcfato]

These are old news except the last link, which talks about Tilson closing his fund.

TILSON: Shorting Tesla Was One Of The Biggest Mistakes Of My Career
Whitney Tilson: I'm So Tempted to Short Tesla
Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) is a Great Short Now: Whitney Tilson
18 years in, famed short seller looks to his next 50
Whitney Tilson to Shut Hedge Fund After ‘Sustained’ Poor Returns

I remember reading somewhere that Tilson shorted TSLA again in 2017, but can't find the source.

Thanks. I added a bits here and there.
Whitney Tilson - Wikipedia

 

[Gerardf]

The Norwegian deliveries keep surprising. Last two days 200/day. This week is simply unbelievable.
Could not resist to post about it again

15-09 142

16-09 51
17-09 0

18-09 76
19-09 89
20-09 102
21-09 100
22-09 196

23-09 36
24-09 7

25-09 151
26-09 145
27-09 200
28-09 200 (incl. 119 Model-X ! ATH)

29-09 ?? At 10.00 count already at 24. Monthly total at 1840
30-09 ??

 

[Cobos]

The Norwegian deliveries keep surprising. Last two days 200/day. This week is simply unbelievable.
Could not resist to post about it again

15-09 142

16-09 51
17-09 0

18-09 76
19-09 89
20-09 102
21-09 100
22-09 196

23-09 36
24-09 7

25-09 151
26-09 145
27-09 200
28-09 200 (incl. 119 Model-X ! ATH)

29-09 ?? At 10.00 count already at 24. Monthly total at 1840
30-09 ??

Not to belittle the enourmous pressure there is on especially Drammen SC, they are almost handling this level of handovers.

Reading on the Norwegian EV forums there has been some horrible handover experiences. Cars with doors not closing, AC with major holes in the tubing etc. Though it seems to be the minority that are bad. Though quite a few have minor issues like some paint scratches etc. So the due bill on the body shops for paint stuff, and the SCs are going to be pretty high.

This isn't a problem now, but if they can't get more high quality staff this can turn into a major issue when the really big boatloads of Model 3s arrive next year.

Having said that it's pretty cool the amount of cars they manage to get out the door.

Cobos

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Thanks. I added a bits here and there.
Whitney Tilson - Wikipedia

"Tilson also shorted Tesla stock in 2014: “Being short one Tesla, as I was, can undo a dozen good short positions when you get the occasional moonshot that runs against you,” he said. “By the way, I’m no longer short Tesla — and it was one of the biggest mistakes long or shot of my investment career.”[9]

In November 2016 he said he "was tempted to short Tesla" again.[10]."

Good choice of the bits!

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Time to short: gulfstream, bombadier, learjet...

Could you please add more to this list?

How about Boeing and Airbus?

 

[Gerardf]

Not to belittle the enourmous pressure there is on especially Drammen SC, they are almost handling this level of handovers.
Reading on the Norwegian EV forums there has been some horrible handover experiences. Cars with doors not closing, AC with major holes in the tubing etc. Though it seems to be the minority that are bad. Though quite a few have minor issues like some paint scratches etc. So the due bill on the body shops for paint stuff, and the SCs are going to be pretty high.
This isn't a problem now, but if they can't get more high quality staff this can turn into a major issue when the really big boatloads of Model 3s arrive next year.
Having said that it's pretty cool the amount of cars they manage to get out the door.
Cobos

Telsa will soon have to start spreading out deliveries more evenly over the quarter instead of the current batching to optimize quarterly numbers. We now see days in July and August with just 1-10 deliveries and the most recent two days with 200 / day in Norway.
The batching will not stay that way much longer, certainly not once Model-3 starts shipping to Europe next year.

 

[uselesslogin]

I was being tongue-in-cheek, but just now Elon clarified cost is same as full fare economy plane ticket

Instagram post by Elon Musk • Sep 29, 2017 at 6:19am UTC

Full fare economy is so expensive no one ever books it. Checking United right now and New York to Shanghai is more than $3,000 one way for a full fare economy ticket which is twice the cost of some of the non-refundable business class tickets and non-refundable economy is like $400.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

The Earth travel aspect of BFR is impactful in many industries. This is huge.

How many of these can SpaceX manufacture by 2025?

 

[Todd Burch]

Unless you're REALLY in an emergency, I'm not sure it's worth taking that many G for such a flight.

A few g's really isn't bad, especially if the seating orientation is horizontal (so you're facing up). In fact, this would probably be less sickening to sensitive passengers than a typical turbulent airline flight.

 

[zzziii]

source: David Swan (@swan_legend) | Twitter

 

[Navin]

 

[SwTslaGrl]

Musk gets connection deal for Tesla big battery, and then switches it on

 

[jhm]

Big Friendly Rocket, tip hat to Roald Dahl

 

[ValueAnalyst]

What is the best section to start an off-topic thread?

 

[Gerardf]

Instagram post by Elon Musk • Sep 29, 2017 at 6:19am UTC

He forgot to mention a 'small detail' during the presentation..

• elonmusk Fly to most places on Earth in under 30 mins and anywhere in under 60. Cost per seat should be about the same as full fare economy in an aircraft. Forgot to mention that.

 

[replicant]

Instagram post by Elon Musk • Sep 29, 2017 at 6:19am UTC

He forgot to mention a 'small detail' during the presentation..

• elonmusk Fly to most places on Earth in under 30 mins and anywhere in under 60. Cost per seat should be about the same as full fare economy in an aircraft. Forgot to mention that.

Can anyone explain how this is possible? How can flying a rocket be less expensive than flying an airplane?

You can assume the same number of passengers than a A380 (which has comparable space to the BFR payload). Does an ascent into orbit use less fuel than a plane climbing and flying at 11km of altitude? What about re-usability (maintenance and number of flights for the lifetime)? And economy of scale (cost of fleet production)?