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2virgule5
Member
GM has no plans and no battery capacity to build more than 30k per year into 2018. BMW and Mercedes are a no show until at least 2020 and again where are they going to get their batteries from? None of them has started to build a credible infrastructure and suddenly it’ll be there in 2019?
Off Shore
Off Topic Member
You've made your point, several times. Do you have anything else? Or should I just add you to my favorites list?
Agree with your first paragraph completely.
MB has robots that install dashes on their C-Class but not the seats. I believe someone posted a video of the MB robots installing dashes on one of the comment threads over on electrek.co.
I wonder exactly what it is about this battery assembly that is giving them problems. If i recall correctly, they had problems with the 100 packs too.
Also, our “source” - full time GF employee and part time racist - turned out to be wayyyy off the mark, pinning the delay on Pana US employees, power supply etc. etc. Perhaps he was aware Elon and JB were at the GF and made some guesses on what is going wrong.
I disagree. How many skeptics in 2012 would have bought in to the idea of that in 5 years Tesla would go from a total production of 2,500 vehicles to 250,000 total vehicles. That's an insane rate of growth by any new manufacturer, especially in the automotive field. And there is no reason for me to believe that Tesla/EM is no less ambitious about the the next 5 years of growth. According to EM, the M3 is a 10-year car, this 3-month delay will be fairly insignificant in the long run. Skeptics and FUDsters will sing their victory songs over the next several weeks, but the EV revolution is here to stay and Tesla will lead the way.
gigglehertz
Member
Landing a rocket on a ship? Show me another aerospace company that does that.
we careless about the car.. we care more about stocks.. most of us, here, don't even own a Tesla car and don't plan on buying one. What make us happy is an UPpity stock..
it certainly is... but it's also margin of error for companies that Tesla is valued greater than.
A few thoughts on TSLA post conference call:
I never banked on Elon being a Dante aficionado, and clearly he's not.
For a few weeks now, it seemed likely that there were significant manufacturing issues with Model 3. I held out a small hope that things might be mostly turned around by the third quarter call, but I'm not really surprised at a full quarter delay in the production ramp for Model 3. For me, the most crucial piece of information delivered in the call was that the demand for S and X stayed strong across all geographies. Consistent demand for these products in a decent range around 100k is a huge asset for the company. During the summer, I had some concern that the strong interest in the Model 3 might lead to a significant air pocket in S/X demand, but that has not been the case. Interest in the model 3 has continued to stoke interest in S and X -- and that's great news. The fact that the energy storage business is not being hampered by the Model 3 production problems was good news too. I've long regarded energy storage as a sleeper category for Tesla. Within the utility industry, people seem to be getting increasingly bullish about grid scale storage.
In response to today's call, we can expect Mr. Market to act like it normally does -- as a manic depressive. As well, the "tail" of Mr. Market is likely to wag people's perceptions of the fundamentals. Of course, the quarter delay on model 3 production is bad news that will cost the company dollars. I don't mean to minimize that. As well, I doubt Elon will be where he thought he was going to be with a coast to coast automated drive by year end. But there is no existential threat and nothing fundamentally different about the company's situation in my mind. Could things get worse? Of course. I would be more worried if several problems occurred at once such as a continued delay in model 3 production along with a significant decline in S/X demand and/or an earthquake that hit the fremont facility. *sugar* happens and sometimes in waves. Even in those situations, I think there is enough long term upside and broad interest in the cash rich tech sector that they could raise a ton of cash if they were really in a pinch.
A year from now Tesla will probably be running at a $20 billion run rate in sales, possibly much better. With a still extraordinary growth profile, I would expect the company to trade at 4-5 times sales and the stock be up appreciably from where it is now. How about between now and then? The best time to add to a stock in terms of risk/reward is often the moment when there is a really sound case for operating margin expansion. Doesn't the market, the sell-side, and the buy-side anticipate that? Often no. Even with a very tight case that operating margins should expand, the market often does a poor job of anticipating that change. Something to watch in the coming months/quarters.
Just my $0.02 here.
I never banked on Elon being a Dante aficionado, and clearly he's not.
For a few weeks now, it seemed likely that there were significant manufacturing issues with Model 3. I held out a small hope that things might be mostly turned around by the third quarter call, but I'm not really surprised at a full quarter delay in the production ramp for Model 3. For me, the most crucial piece of information delivered in the call was that the demand for S and X stayed strong across all geographies. Consistent demand for these products in a decent range around 100k is a huge asset for the company. During the summer, I had some concern that the strong interest in the Model 3 might lead to a significant air pocket in S/X demand, but that has not been the case. Interest in the model 3 has continued to stoke interest in S and X -- and that's great news. The fact that the energy storage business is not being hampered by the Model 3 production problems was good news too. I've long regarded energy storage as a sleeper category for Tesla. Within the utility industry, people seem to be getting increasingly bullish about grid scale storage.
In response to today's call, we can expect Mr. Market to act like it normally does -- as a manic depressive. As well, the "tail" of Mr. Market is likely to wag people's perceptions of the fundamentals. Of course, the quarter delay on model 3 production is bad news that will cost the company dollars. I don't mean to minimize that. As well, I doubt Elon will be where he thought he was going to be with a coast to coast automated drive by year end. But there is no existential threat and nothing fundamentally different about the company's situation in my mind. Could things get worse? Of course. I would be more worried if several problems occurred at once such as a continued delay in model 3 production along with a significant decline in S/X demand and/or an earthquake that hit the fremont facility. *sugar* happens and sometimes in waves. Even in those situations, I think there is enough long term upside and broad interest in the cash rich tech sector that they could raise a ton of cash if they were really in a pinch.
A year from now Tesla will probably be running at a $20 billion run rate in sales, possibly much better. With a still extraordinary growth profile, I would expect the company to trade at 4-5 times sales and the stock be up appreciably from where it is now. How about between now and then? The best time to add to a stock in terms of risk/reward is often the moment when there is a really sound case for operating margin expansion. Doesn't the market, the sell-side, and the buy-side anticipate that? Often no. Even with a very tight case that operating margins should expand, the market often does a poor job of anticipating that change. Something to watch in the coming months/quarters.
Just my $0.02 here.
Krugerrand
Meow
Didn’t I hear Deepak say (in the background) something about expecting a growth rate of 70/80%? for years to come (once they get the ball rolling on Model 3)? I’m sure I heard that. And this coming from people who have consistently under estimated demand for their products.
1. model 3 production goals are delayed for three months. 2. BIGGEST quarterly loss in the history of Tesla 3. scaled back model S and X production.. 4) delayed Semi trailer debut.
here are all the problems
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erthquake
Active Member
I've been checking mine, and it just updated with a one month delay for my first production (now Nov 17 - Jan 18).
sundaymorning
Active Member
Looks like the high Capex this quarter was due to a one time only hit from dropping the 90kwh battery and switching to the 100, in the grand scheme of things this is not a big deal if it’s only a one time hit for improved efficiency from a value proposition standpoint, which has benefitted customers buying 100s instead of 90s. Tesla is dominating the luxury car segment bc of this impoved efficiency, customers have responded by buying more Tesla’s than Mercedes S class by a factor of 2, and more than BMW, Audi’s, Porsche Panamrama combined.
This domination in the luxury segment will lead to a huge Quarter 4 delivery and sales (noted by Elon, orders for S and X remain robust), it’s going to be another record breaking quarter...
As far as the bottleneck is concerned, it appears that Elon understands where the issue is, which contractor dropped the ball, and lines 1&2 are being worked on by Tesla’s best engineers at the GF. I don’t see the doom and gloom scenarios that some bears and new posters have been dropping here today. Listen to the call, it was filled with intellectual conversations, Elon giggling and confidence in the ramp that will eventually occur. He likens this ramp, when it does happen, to be like a “fighter jet in vertical climb..” Tesla currently has plenty of cash on hand and Elon has reiterated that they will not need to raise capital all the way to 10,000 per week. Elon stopped shy of promising any concrete numbers for M3 production but did mention “something like a few thousand per week in Q4.” This statement is consistent with them reducing 5k parts to 3k parts per week with a supplier... it sounds like Tesla “will deliver M3 numbers with high confidence in Q4 earnings call.”
I think we get a slight drop tomorrow, followed by a quick reversal as value seeking side liners will enter (not an advice of course). I’ll be looking to purchase some more.
A bonus: Tesla’s growth rate is faster than the Model T. Model X reached Model S demand growth within 50% less time.
This domination in the luxury segment will lead to a huge Quarter 4 delivery and sales (noted by Elon, orders for S and X remain robust), it’s going to be another record breaking quarter...
As far as the bottleneck is concerned, it appears that Elon understands where the issue is, which contractor dropped the ball, and lines 1&2 are being worked on by Tesla’s best engineers at the GF. I don’t see the doom and gloom scenarios that some bears and new posters have been dropping here today. Listen to the call, it was filled with intellectual conversations, Elon giggling and confidence in the ramp that will eventually occur. He likens this ramp, when it does happen, to be like a “fighter jet in vertical climb..” Tesla currently has plenty of cash on hand and Elon has reiterated that they will not need to raise capital all the way to 10,000 per week. Elon stopped shy of promising any concrete numbers for M3 production but did mention “something like a few thousand per week in Q4.” This statement is consistent with them reducing 5k parts to 3k parts per week with a supplier... it sounds like Tesla “will deliver M3 numbers with high confidence in Q4 earnings call.”
I think we get a slight drop tomorrow, followed by a quick reversal as value seeking side liners will enter (not an advice of course). I’ll be looking to purchase some more.
A bonus: Tesla’s growth rate is faster than the Model T. Model X reached Model S demand growth within 50% less time.
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Checked mine as well. Pushed back by one month (Dec 17 - Feb 18). I'm a non-Tesla owner, day one reservation holder. Not a big deal.
sundaymorning
Active Member
For short term investors buying weeklies or monthly calls, Tesla is 3 months late to ramp.
For long term investors like myself, Tesla is 1 year and 9 months early to Model 3 ramp.
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