2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[dalalsid]

There are no BMW or Mercedes in the same market as the Tesla Roadster. Neither in terms of scope nor base price.

I think the sls amg fits the bill from Mercedes

 

[Anstandswauwau]

I think the sls amg fits the bill from Mercedes

The GT R, their most extreme spec, is still "only" $167k. The regular GT starts at $112k.

I personally don't see them being in the same market as the Roadster.

Btw here are the sales numbers for the Benz GT (including the GT R, I assume):

• 2016 – US: 1.227 units
• 2016 – Europe: 2.372 units

 

[myusername]

Yes and because they where so good at it we all drive Jedliks and Davenports now, right? Come on, even you have to admit that before Tesla no one had a package that was desirable. Its IPhone all over: MS had the tech before, but could not create a sexy package that people would use. Steve Jobs had the vision what it takes to make it a bestseller and today few know there was anything before the IPhone. Same with Tesla and this is something most ca CEOs do agree on: Tesla made the EV sexy and only by doing this it grew momentum. If you can't see that I'm at loss.

I literally did admit this when I said: "the genius is not the technology... it's the marketing."

 

[elasalle]

Some thoughts on the $0.07/mile cost for charging the semi ...

2 points:
. The energy consumption for semi is < 2Kwh/mile (Semi | Tesla)
.Looks like there are already places producing solar at 1.77c/Kwh
(Cheapest electricity on the planet is Mexican solar power at 1.77¢/kWh – record 1¢/kWh coming in 2019, sooner)

So if we assume that Semi energy consumption is 2Kwh/mile and Tesla can provide energy at par with Mexico.. we still have like a 3 cents margin per mile ...

Looks like Semi business will be Service oriented .. (provide logistics, maintenance, charging etc.) to make it a good revenue generator..

Wild card .. the roof on Semi seems to be a good place to add solar panels and get charging on the go .. though it might disrupt aerodynamics, add more load and I think will minimize revenue ...

 

[mongo]

Some thoughts on the $0.07/mile cost for charging the semi ...

$0.07 per kWh, $0.14 per mile (at 2 kWh/mile)

 

[elasalle]

$0.07 per kWh, $0.14 per mile (at 2 kWh/mile)

Did I get it wrong?

$0.07/mile is what Customer is going to get charged. ( no need to multiply anything here). i.e. 7 cents

Semi consumption is 2KWh/mile and if Tesla can generate power at 2c/KWh, it will cost Producer(Tesla) - 4cents/mile

so margin at this difference would be 7-4, i.e. 3 cents/mile

Further if this is correct, then for a 500 mile trip for Semi, revenue would be 500*(3/100), i.e. $15

(Note: generating power using Solar is key here, and I think EM also mentioned that they would be using Solar for the same reason ...)

+plus .. looks like TA is gonna be the biggest client of TE ...

 

[Reciprocity]

I literally did admit this when I said: "the genius is not the technology... it's the marketing."

Hah, the FUDsters coordinating I see. Must be a holiday week.

Your actually partially correct. The real genius is actually doing it instead of saying you may do something by 2028. The marketing is really happening organically, meaning they are not pumping money and resources into marketing. Unless you consider building a gigafactory more of a marketing gimmick? The tech is not astronomically better then what others could come up with, but the big difference is that it actually exist. Competitors will not compete not because they can't, but because they do not have the will. They would need massive changes to the way there business, some if which are literally illegal (selling directly) and they have zero will to do it. And even if they did do it, they would only being stealing market share from themselves at much lower (negative) margins. Add to that the loss of fed tax credits.... They are screwed.

 

[mongo]

Did I get it wrong?

$0.07/mile is what Customer is going to get charged. ( no need to multiple anything here). i.e. 7 cents

Semi consumption is 2KWh/mile and if Tesla can generate power at 2c/KWh, it will cost Producer(Tesla) - 4cents/mile

so margin at this difference would be 7-4, i.e. 3 cents/mile

Further if this is correct, then for a 500 mile trip for Semi, revenue would be 500*(3/100), i.e. $15

The customer gets charged 0.07 per kWh, just reverified. The semi uses less than 2 kWh per mile, so under $0.14 per mile.

https://jalopnik.com/all-the-questions-tesla-has-to-answer-now-1820523237

 

[elasalle]

The customer gets charged 0.07 per kWh, just reverified. The semi uses less than 2 kWh per mile, so under $0.14 per mile.

https://jalopnik.com/all-the-questions-tesla-has-to-answer-now-1820523237

The distinction I have been trying to make is between Consumption and Production.

For Consumption, customer is charged a flat rate of 7c/mile

.. regardless of how energy is produced.

For Production, If Tesla produces energy at par with what has already been demoed in Mexico, then for Production it will cost Tesla 4c/mile --
2cents/KWh*2Kw/mile(consumption)

The difference between production and consumption, is the profit ...(IMHO)

Edit
Sorry @mongo, I get you point now.
If customer is going to get charged per KWH, then difference in Consumption and production will be even more and will be even better.
So if Consumption is per KWh.
Per mile consumption is 14c, while production is still 4c/mile .. so profit will be 10c/mile

For a 500 mile trip, then it would be profit of $50 (500*10/100)

 

[racer26]

The distinction I have been trying to make is between Consumption and Production.

For Consumption, customer is charged a flat rate of 7c/mile

.. regardless of how energy is produced.

For Production, If Tesla produces energy at par with what has already been demoed in Mexico, then for Production it will cost Tesla 4c/mile --
2cents/KWh*2Kw/mile(consumption)

The difference between production and consumption, is the revenue ...(IMHO)

You mean the profit. The revenue is simply the money received from the customers.

I'm not expecting 7c/kWh to be a problem for Tesla. I can already buy electricity for rates like that at my home, at residential retail rates, in Canadian $. In Semi-fleet sized volumes, it should be no trouble at all to get electricity for rates like that.

 

[mongo]

One if us doesn't follow what the other is saying.

For Consumption, customer is charged a flat rate of 7c/mile

For consumption, the customer is charged 7c/kWh. Per mile makes sense for wear and tear on the tractor, not on energy usage otherwise they charge the same for a tractor v.s. fully loaded up a mountain.

Why Tesla’s Electric Semi Truck Is the Toughest Thing Musk Has Attempted Yet

 

[elasalle]

One if us doesn't follow what the other is saying.



For consumption, the customer is charged 7c/kWh. Per mile makes sense for wear and tear on the tractor, not on energy usage otherwise they charge the same for a tractor v.s. fully loaded up a mountain.

Why Tesla’s Electric Semi Truck Is the Toughest Thing Musk Has Attempted Yet

Thanks. Made the correction and it gives a even better profit margin ... (The question I was trying to get answered for my self was whether the $0.07/KwH will be profitable and possible)

 

[Bobfitz1]

Where is/will be GF 3?

Good question. Only 5 weeks before end of year. When Elon has said more than once there will be information about plans for the next few GigaFactories.

 

[Bobfitz1]

what innovations? you guys are just plain silly with your... "Elon the Great... I'm not sure if the human race is ready for your genius!"
seriously guys... they put a battery in a car and then made a stock go through the roof... that's it. the genius is not the technology... it's the marketing. History of the electric vehicle - Wikipedia

Models S and X aren't the only things with a Ludicrous mode. I suppose you also think "seriously guys, what's the big fuss over Watson and Crick? Darwin discovered evolution a hundred fifty years ago. "

 

[schonelucht]

Moved to on topic thread.

And I really dislike constant negativity disguised as realism. But I won't go so far as to name those on this forum that might fit this profile...

There must be a reason you answer this to me but it really escapes me why since you rated 'like' the post I made before the one you replied to which clearly dispelled the 'constant negativity' you seem to accuse me off in a passive agressive way.

It seems to me your position only makes sense, if one dismisses the validity/evidence of this quote from nine months ago,

You mean a throwaway quote from a promotional video frontrunning actual developments on the ground? Sure, I have no trouble admitting that I dismiss those pretty easily. So should you.

Missing a planed ramp for M3 module production says very little about the pace of the cells or even PowerPack and PowerWall production. Your position seems to be generalizing from one well contained step of the overall enterprise to the entire entity. That in my view is unreasonable. Besides, I expect most of the evidence you seek to be closely guarded business secrets.

Please reread the entire post again. I clearly outlined _different_ issues that could impact cost per unit A) with cell production for energy (partially externally sourced); B) with pack assembly for energy (low volume); C) with cell production for automotive (Panasonic themselves saying they are throttled back due to bottlenecks) and D) pack assembly for automotive (Tesla themselves telling us the line was rubbish). No generalization from one well contained step but clear factors that affect the full line up of products and the full scope of work.

 

[electracity]

Great piece from Tom Randall:

Tesla’s Newest Promises Break the Laws of Batteries

A dumb piece by Tom Randall. The truck is four battery systems that are charged as four systems. No new magic required. It is simply 4x next gen supercharger.

When Tesla installs solar and storage in front of the megacharger if will be an efficient DC only system, probably on a 800v bus. All completely doable by Tesla today.

Tesla battery cost in 2021/2022 is the only piece of the puzzle not in place today.

"Tesla is making its trucks more efficient by reducing wind drag to levels that are comparable to those of sports cars."

Tom's clueless, confusing drag coefficient with drag.

 

[mutle]

A dumb piece by Tom Randall. The truck is four battery systems that are charged as four systems. No new magic required. It is simply 4x next gen supercharger.

I'm not so sure about that. Remember that Elon said that even with one or two motors breaking the truck can still continue to operate. If the systems were completely independent then it would only have half the battery capacity (and less than half of the range) with only two working motors.

 

[Bobfitz1]

I'm guessing the Model Y reservation price will be $5000, or at least $3000. I don't think they really wanted the Model 3 lineup to be this long, and would have charged more for reservations if they had known. Having a shorter lineup for the Y will be especially important because there will be more competitors by then. They could possibly get 150k reservations for $750M.

One of the 'A' members may shoot me down on this, but I'm thinking we may see Model Y sooner than they have been letting on.
It will be on the same (by then) proven platform as M3. So all the production lines already worked out (soon) only need to be duplicated, not designed and programmed. Possibly at GF1. They will need a new assembly production line in a new factory dedicated to Y.
But again, that is customizing/adjusting production technology that's already been done for M3. I don't doubt they've already decided where to assemble it and are setting in place orders for long lead time pieces like the stampers.

 

[myusername]

Hah, the FUDsters coordinating I see. Must be a holiday week.

Your actually partially correct. The real genius is actually doing it instead of saying you may do something by 2028. The marketing is really happening organically, meaning they are not pumping money and resources into marketing. Unless you consider building a gigafactory more of a marketing gimmick? The tech is not astronomically better then what others could come up with, but the big difference is that it actually exist. Competitors will not compete not because they can't, but because they do not have the will. They would need massive changes to the way there business, some if which are literally illegal (selling directly) and they have zero will to do it. And even if they did do it, they would only being stealing market share from themselves at much lower (negative) margins. Add to that the loss of fed tax credits.... They are screwed.

"gigafactory" -- is a marketing term. what has it done?... it's made you use the term on a forum as an argument for the company. has it delivered billions of dollars worth of Tesla Energy products?... has it delivered millions of Electric Vehicles and changed the carbon footprint of the planet... NO. it has not done that. do you say it will? does Elon say it will? YES... this is the difference between doing and talking about doing.

you have been marketed to. and you're impression is that it's substantial because you feel it.

 

[Zaxxon]

I'm not so sure about that. Remember that Elon said that even with one or two motors breaking the truck can still continue to operate. If the systems were completely independent then it would only have half the battery capacity (and less than half of the range) with only two working motors.

Batteries charging independently != motors operating independently.