2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

[Yggdrasill]

BTW What is going on with the Norway "Tesla Tax" and the " We are not part of the EU but we need the EU's permission to exempt BEVs from Norwegian VAT for the next 3 years"?

I haven't seen this mentioned yet, but yesterday Norway got the go-ahead from the EU to keep the VAT-exemption through 2020. This bodes well for continued good sales numbers for Model S and Model X, as well as the Model 3 (and Model Y?).

One source: Google Oversetter

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Appreciate if you don’t pollute this thread with Seeking Alpha nonsense. I get it that you want to promote your blog over there. But this is not really informative or even funny to me, especially what nutcase Speigel is saying over at SA.

1. How’s this “promoting my blog?”
2. 14+ people laughed because of this post even if you personally did not find it funny
3. The post is about Tesla and the current bear position

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Why?

And, if they aren't, what conclusions will you draw?

South Australia project (battery sale to neoen), I believe, will be recognized in full in 4Q17. Plus, powerwall deliveries to Puerto Rico, for which IIRC Elon paid. We should see a bump in TE revenue.

 

[RobStark]

I haven't seen this mentioned yet, but yesterday Norway got the go-ahead from the EU to keep the VAT-exemption through 2020. This bodes well for continued good sales numbers for Model S and Model X, as well as the Model 3 (and Model Y?).

One source: Google Oversetter

I will go out on a limb and predict Tesla will overtake Volvo,Toyota, and even Volkswagen to become the number 1 automaker in Norway in 2020.

Tesla should allocate a very large allotment for Norway in 2020.

 

[nasatech]

@nasatech, with 144614 (and counting) EVs registered in Norway, has anyone bothered to check if there is some sort of improvement in pollution/CO2/air?
If electricity is indeed all generated by idro, this is actually lots of tonnes of carbon saved.

Only thing i found was this: http://www.luftkvalitet.info/Libraries/Rapporter/oslo_historisk.sflb.ashx

It's in Norwegian. The problem is that even though we sell a lot of EVs and some month, like this one, it's the most sold car, we stil have a lot more fossil cars. Both new and old. But the numbers are not increasing! And that's good

 

[Yggdrasill]

I will go out on a limb and predict Tesla will overtake Volvo,Toyota, and even Volkswagen to become the number 1 automaker in Norway in 2020.

Tesla should allocate a very large allotment for Norway in 2020.

The biggest challenge I see for Tesla in Norway is selling the Model 3 on utility. Having a optional tow hitch and roof box will help a lot, but in general sedans aren't very popular here. I hope Tesla has time to bring out the Model Y and start selling it in Norway before the VAT-exemption is phased out. Then we should see some *really* crazy numbers. The Model Y is likely to be quite perfect for the Norwegian market.

 

[Yggdrasill]

It's in Norwegian. The problem is that even though we sell a lot of EVs and some month, like this one, it's the most sold car, we stil have a lot more fossil cars. Both new and old. But the numbers are not increasing! And that's good

Yes, despite the popularity of EVs, diesel sales are actually increasing (and gasoline + diesel sales are stable). Trucking is a major factor, and when you're looking at air quality, shipping and wood burning stoves are also quite impactful.

We need the Tesla Semis, more electric vans, and we need to replace more wood/biofuels with renewable electricity and heat pumps. We also need to mandate that ships in port are required to connect to the grid instead of running generators.

 

[avoigt]

It's actually a pretty legit car until Model 3 shows up. We have a 2015 VW eGolf, love how it drives, tight turning radius, adequate acceleration without the lag of a gas engine, leaves even BMW 3-series behind at every light. Just range isnt there, and the computer component of it is just so bad. It also still has that on/off ignition switch that needs to be on to move windows up and down, off to unplug your car charger, beeps at you when you leave the car while it is on etc. And the remote app car-net is a disaster, plus they want to start charging you $15/month for it after the initial free period is over. I can't wait to replace it with the Model 3. For some reason VW made sure to only sell below 300/month in the US, compliance car for them I guess, but they sold more in germany and norway.

Only thing i found was this: http://www.luftkvalitet.info/Libraries/Rapporter/oslo_historisk.sflb.ashx

It's in Norwegian. The problem is that even though we sell a lot of EVs and some month, like this one, it's the most sold car, we stil have a lot more fossil cars. Both new and old. But the numbers are not increasing! And that's good

You guys are way ahead of the ROW, Cudos to that !

Wished more political will would be around in other countries to make a faster change. Older ICE will be around and annoy us for a longer period anyway....

 

[avoigt]

Here we go - ramping!

Tesla registered 954 new #Model3 VINs. Highest VIN is 4794

Model 3 VINs on Twitter
Tesla registered 954 new Model3 VINs. Highest VIN is 4794. • r/teslamotors

 

[myusername]

For someone as intent on deconstructing Tesla as you, I would think you'd bother to read the article. This delivery did not happen today. It's scheduled for the 26th. And anyway, one person does not a delivery deluge make. When the bulk of the 11/21 invitees start taking delivery, then we can mark non-employee deliveries as occurring in earnest.

But back to the point you think you're making: yes, 'bears' predicted that Tesla would miss their aspirational goals, as Tesla nearly always does. Good job?

Most analysts and most of us bulls also predicted this. The difference is that you bear folk also predicted that this would matter severely to the stock price, unlike its negligible effect for the past several years of Tesla's existence.

They'll continue to miss many to most of their goals. And they'll continue to eventually deliver the goods. Again, as is their pattern.

The story supporting the stock price depends on ultimately hitting the bullseye. No one who's serious about following the company / being in the stock pretends otherwise.

In another thread you asked tonight why longs don't insist that Tesla report monthly as other, more established automakers do. Thank you for showing why by way of your example in this thread. It's because tunnel-vision detractors like you would use the data to mislead / grab onto ultimately meaningless missteps and raise hell in an attempt to derail the company.

I'm actually fine with them not enabling that behavior any further than they must.

you may be... but there's a baker's dozen other people scouring over VINs who don't seem to be.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

The lower U.S. corporate tax rate increases the intrinsic value of Tesla significantly, assuming the government does not change it back, and assuming the lower corporate tax rate does not cause a major budget deficit problem in the future, which is a highly debated assumption.

I should also note that the lower corporate tax rate comes at just about the perfect time for Tesla as the company will soon become GAAP profitable, and not temporarily as bears would like you to believe. Tesla will have some Deferred Tax Assets that it has accumulated in the last several years to negate its taxable income for another year following 2Q18, but thereafter, it will be one of the best companies to put the lower corporate tax rate to good use with its exceptional return on invested capital due specifically to its Gigafactories.

This is positive Tesla bulls.

 

[Zaxxon]

97 registrations in Norway so far today, which puts them at 2000 for the month per Teslastats.no. Since that site's a scraper, it's highly likely that the 2,004 record has already been broken and the bulk of the day will be spent improving on the new record.

 

[scaesare]

and 12 days left in the year... unbelievable... here's the deal:

bears predicted this... a batch of M3s pumped out at the end of the year to claim "Victory!"

they predicted:

- poor to non-existent TE sales
- solar roof won't fly
- massive losses and continuous cash raises while constantly told "we don't need one"
- SolarCity -- enough said
- and the list goes on and on

and here's what bears are predicting right now:

- the M3 will come out much slower than expected
- the M3 will greatly disappoint in the books

and here's the thing... the ONLY thing bears have been wrong about with this entire fiasco is the share price... everything about the company was predicted years in advance by bears... and bears will once again be proven right going forward from here over the next few months.

while Elon has been able to keep this *sugar* afloat for the last 5 years with low volume... I don't see any way he can get past this next step.

now someone say $270... and my response to you is, where is the company you guys have been talking about all these years? they just delivered the FIRST non-employee car today? WTF?

You know, you really do the whole satirical cynical comedy routine very well. BRAVO!

At first when I read your bearish posts, saw your negative spin of every development, your dogged determination to ignore the positive aspects of developments, etc... I figured you for a short investor. Then when I saw the deluge of folks decrying your participation her and advocating for putting you on "ignore" or even banning you, I then concluded you must actually be a paid shill.

But now that I continue being entertained by your posts here, I've come to realize the genius of your comedy routine. I have to say the sheer absurdity of what you post, along with the incredibly serious tone with which you post it, is perfectly executed. It takes real skill to finely hone your craft such that only a small percentage of readers catch on to the gag. BRILLIANT!

So thanks, myusername, for such entertainment. I look forward seeing how you'll manage to weave even more ridiculous conclusions in to your posts with that stone-cold delivery, and then will giggle knowingly when I watch these other suckers falling for it.

2018 will be great!


Signed-

-Your Biggest Fan

 

[dc_h]

Why?

And, if they aren't, what conclusions will you draw?

Two options or a combination of lower gigafactory production or the sales model/process is not working with global utilities.
A third option might be utilities are conservative and want to see the batteries working.

 

[Intl Professor]

Who is financing you?

I'm a retired state worker. Been on welfare all my life.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I'm a retired state worker. Been on welfare all my life.

Haha! My question wasn't for you, but for the "imaginary" troll.

 

[aubreymcfato]

We need the Tesla Semis, more electric vans, and we need to replace more wood/biofuels with renewable electricity and heat pumps. We also need to mandate that ships in port are required to connect to the grid instead of running generators.

Well, you can start reserving Semis... from now.

Source: Tesla Semi reservation now available in the UK, Norway nad Netherlands • r/teslamotors

 

[GreyHair]

Unfortunately, our grid people- utility people- have to see this , maybe many times before they believe it.

I sent this over to people in CAISO, CPUC, CEC, etc. Rather amazing but here in California the CPUC (California Public Utilities Commission - approves new power plants) has paused the Puente Gas peaker replacement plant to get bids from storage and alternative energy folks to see if the time for batteries has arrived. The future is here, it is just not evenly distributed (Gibson).

 

[Paracelsus]

http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-aliso-leak-20171218-story.html

While the reasons are becoming very clear for California replacing these natural gas storage and peaker plant facilities with battery storage facilities - such as Tesla's 20MW/80MWh site in Mira Loma, it remains unclear why we do not hear of the health hazards of these facilities that are spread across the entire rest of the US....nor do we hear of any pro-active effort for their transition towards battery storage and distributed generation technologies. And from a health perspective it is important to consider that venting of the storage and pumping units simply due to temperature changes and pressure changes is an acceptable part of the design. Thank you California for being bold enough to lead the way once again.

 

[Bobfitz1]

Some things I dont think I have seen raised here that I thought are kind of being overlooked or maybe just not flushed out much on this forum yet.

The other bear argument is related to cash burn related to capex for Model 3. I have stated this before and I will reiterate it, the Capex for Model 3 is not infinite, it is actually finite. Bears make it to be that Tesla will be spending 1B a quarter in capex for the model 3 forever. In fact, Depak addressed this as going to basically 0 by the end of the next quarter and decreasing this current quarter. This is because Tesla only pays for Capex once the equipment is validated, and then they have some terms though probably pretty short. But once that equipment is installed and running properly, then its paid for and never paid for again. Its really a key factor, because its only paid for when it works. Once it works, Tesla is able to work through deliveries which nets them major cash flows and parts orders that on 60 day terms. This means that going forward, the only money they spend, related to Model 3, is for parts and only 30 days after they deliver the vehicles.

Great post. The section on cash burn/capex for M3 raises some broader capex questions. I don't see any reason not to believe Depak that M3 capex will soon go to nearly 0, except I'm unsure what is req'd to go from 5K/wk production to 10K/wk. Will the production line(s) to produce 5K/wk be speeded up 2X more, or do a 2nd set of lines need to be built and brought online? If production line(s) need to be duplicated then M3 would still require substantial capex after end of Q1.

Let's say M3 capex is finished after Q1. How long will capex for all planned products stay low? Just considering Tesla transportation,
the following products/facilities need large amounts of capital to hit 2020 production goals.
1. Continuing build out of GF1 to reach 105 GWh by 2020.
2. A new and very large facility (or portion of an even larger one) to increase M3 way beyond 500K/yr and produce similar volumes of MY
3. Production lines for Semi, Roadster 2.
4. One or more add'l battery GFs to increase battery production beyond 105 GWh.

From postings by various members we have a good idea of revenue/profits likely in 2018 and 2019, assuming gross margin targets are 20 - 25% and M3 production reaches 250 - 300K in 2018 and 500K in 2019.

How much capital will be needed in 2018 and 2019 I think is much harder to estimate across 1 - 4, etc.
Does anyone believe they have good estimates for those and what facts and thinking supports those?