ValueAnalyst
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Bears are freaking out over Tesla Semi and throwing the kitchen sink, but retail investors have already wised up:
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Not in the website, you should ask directly @nasatech.
Speaking of Norway: I'd like to understand the opinion of the forum about this.
My question is: is Norway a possible future benchmark for other "mature" markets, or the fact that they have great incentives and cheap, idro electricity makes it a total outlier?
If the former, Q4 numbers are huge, bullish news.
We are talking about 21739 Tesla cars (as of now: we'll probably reach 22500 for end of the year) in a country with
5 mil people...
If we count registered voters as "potential car customers" (Wikipedia says 3'765'245) it becomes one Tesla every 167 people.
Tesla is slaying every competition, both EV and premium ICE.
To me, this means: *there is no alternative* to Tesla cars. They are just better. And we'are not even talking about Model 3 numbers!
If (and it's a big if) my argument is correct, this is as close as a laboratory test as we can get. And it's game over.
Nice read ..
Tesla big battery outsmarts lumbering coal units after Loy Yang trips
"Last Thursday, one of the biggest coal units in Australia, Loy Yang A 3, tripped without warning at 1.59am, with the sudden loss of 560MW and causing a slump in frequency on the network.
What happened next has stunned electricity industry insiders and given food for thought over the near to medium term future of the grid, such was the rapid response of the Tesla big battery to an event that happened nearly 1,000km away."
Waiting4M3
Active Member
I'd also be curious to hear people's thoughts on Model X performance. +30% to Model S registrations YTD. Anything that is driving that other than MX being newer and the fear of the higher taxes on the heavier MX?
dc_h
Active Member
Already a record quarter for Europe with only Norway counted for December and still rising. 230 so far today and over 7200 for Europe. A normal end of quarter for the rest of Europe would led to 10,000 Europe sales for q4. 7068 was last quarters record. Now we need model 3 production confirmation. If we're at 3.5 billion in revenue and 500 million in new Roadster and semi deposits and bears are going to be very disappointed.And also Norway is still counting
+ 184 and still counting for today(and it is only 15.45)
Makes it 1800 and still counting for the month ..
makes it 3092 and still counting for Q4
I think one of the driving factors is the ability to tow with the Model X.
And Norway is still rising with post-business hours scraping updates--it's at 231 now, a few minutes after dc_h's post... Norway will likely break its combined S+X monthly record of 2,004 tomorrow. (It's sitting at 1,847 right now, leaving only 157 needed tomorrow to set the record.) Even if you knock out the entire Christmas holiday week, we've still got 3 business days left in the year to keep the new record rising.
ValueAnalyst
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Let alone Christmas week, I'm pretty sure some here would skip even Christmas dinner to get their Model X.
Reciprocity
Active Member
Some things I dont think I have seen raised here that I thought are kind of being overlooked or maybe just not flushed out much on this forum yet. When we talk about competition I think the idea from bears is that some big car company like Daimler or VW is going to come out with some revolutionary EV that surpasses Tesla in every way. More luxurious, more range, faster charging, better performance. My question to them would be, why do we think that these companies that have not really produced anything revolutionary in decades would all the sudden have the will or ability to do anything more then tiny incremental improvements. Sure the 2017 S Class is much better then the 2007 S Class, but its only been improved in tiny increments.
There is also this concept of Addressable Market. If you take the entire market for a specific segment, like the Large Luxury Sedan, there are only so many sold in a given year and all the auto manufacturers with few exceptions will have a product in that segment. The market share for those models is their percentage of that pie. Each model in those markets can only take share from each other, they cannot really expand the addressable market, though there is an argument that Tesla has expanded the addressable market for large lux sedans by pulling people up from lower levels. An example would be someone like me, who would have never purchased a $100k car. This is where the bears get lost. They believe that Porsche with the Mission E will directly attack Model S. Tesla could lose some market share to Porsche, maybe from 40% to 35%, but in general Porsche is going to be selling Mssion E to other Porsche owners instead of taking substantial market share from Tesla. Certainly, some will go from the Model S to the Porsche but the vast majority of Tesla owners say they will buy a Tesla again. This cannibalization of their own models is what is going to give the competition major problems, because the EVs they will be selling will be negative margins for two reasons, they will have similar R&D as Tesla and because they are going to be building low volumes with no economies of scale. Even if they have a lot of demand, they are going to have issues with volumes because they have not secured their own high volume battery supplies. Even if a provider like Bosch comes along, they are not going to make batteries as a charity, they are going to mark them up. Certainly Panasonic marks up the batteries as well, but Tesla is committed to enormous volumes so that markup is small. Tesla is also saving money and supply chain by co-locating with its suppliers. Is Bosch going to build a batter factory inside the Porsche facility?
The other bear argument is related to cash burn related to capex for Model 3. I have stated this before and I will reiterate it, the Capex for Model 3 is not infinite, it is actually finite. Bears make it to be that Tesla will be spending 1B a quarter in capex for the model 3 forever. In fact, Depak addressed this as going to basically 0 by the end of the next quarter and decreasing this current quarter. This is because Tesla only pays for Capex once the equipment is validated, and then they have some terms though probably pretty short. But once that equipment is installed and running properly, then its paid for and never paid for again. Its really a key factor, because its only paid for when it works. Once it works, Tesla is able to work through deliveries which nets them major cash flows and parts orders that on 60 day terms. This means that going forward, the only money they spend, related to Model 3, is for parts and only 30 days after they deliver the vehicles.
Lastly, the thing I am just coming to realize. The Model Y is based on the Model 3. Once Model 3 hits 5k/W then 10k/W, Tesla only has to copy the line for other countries and copy the line with Tweaks for the Model Y. If anything, the Y should be slightly easier because there is more room for the robots to work on a slightly large vehicle. This is way different then when they went from Model S to Model X, because there isnt going to be any new nutty features and even if they do have FWD on the Model Y, they seem to have that figured out. The same goes for Gigafactories. Once they hit volume, its just a matter of building giant building and copying the equipment, though I assume Tesla will not do that and they will iterate the design of the Gigafactory with each subsequent factory. The more automation they have on these factories the easier it is to copy, because there is no learning curve, the robots and software dont car what country or building they are in. The next iteration of the Gigafacory should be a combined Battery + Solar + Vehicle plant. How huge of a building is that going to be? Fremont + Nevada + NY in one enormous building or campus?
There is also this concept of Addressable Market. If you take the entire market for a specific segment, like the Large Luxury Sedan, there are only so many sold in a given year and all the auto manufacturers with few exceptions will have a product in that segment. The market share for those models is their percentage of that pie. Each model in those markets can only take share from each other, they cannot really expand the addressable market, though there is an argument that Tesla has expanded the addressable market for large lux sedans by pulling people up from lower levels. An example would be someone like me, who would have never purchased a $100k car. This is where the bears get lost. They believe that Porsche with the Mission E will directly attack Model S. Tesla could lose some market share to Porsche, maybe from 40% to 35%, but in general Porsche is going to be selling Mssion E to other Porsche owners instead of taking substantial market share from Tesla. Certainly, some will go from the Model S to the Porsche but the vast majority of Tesla owners say they will buy a Tesla again. This cannibalization of their own models is what is going to give the competition major problems, because the EVs they will be selling will be negative margins for two reasons, they will have similar R&D as Tesla and because they are going to be building low volumes with no economies of scale. Even if they have a lot of demand, they are going to have issues with volumes because they have not secured their own high volume battery supplies. Even if a provider like Bosch comes along, they are not going to make batteries as a charity, they are going to mark them up. Certainly Panasonic marks up the batteries as well, but Tesla is committed to enormous volumes so that markup is small. Tesla is also saving money and supply chain by co-locating with its suppliers. Is Bosch going to build a batter factory inside the Porsche facility?
The other bear argument is related to cash burn related to capex for Model 3. I have stated this before and I will reiterate it, the Capex for Model 3 is not infinite, it is actually finite. Bears make it to be that Tesla will be spending 1B a quarter in capex for the model 3 forever. In fact, Depak addressed this as going to basically 0 by the end of the next quarter and decreasing this current quarter. This is because Tesla only pays for Capex once the equipment is validated, and then they have some terms though probably pretty short. But once that equipment is installed and running properly, then its paid for and never paid for again. Its really a key factor, because its only paid for when it works. Once it works, Tesla is able to work through deliveries which nets them major cash flows and parts orders that on 60 day terms. This means that going forward, the only money they spend, related to Model 3, is for parts and only 30 days after they deliver the vehicles.
Lastly, the thing I am just coming to realize. The Model Y is based on the Model 3. Once Model 3 hits 5k/W then 10k/W, Tesla only has to copy the line for other countries and copy the line with Tweaks for the Model Y. If anything, the Y should be slightly easier because there is more room for the robots to work on a slightly large vehicle. This is way different then when they went from Model S to Model X, because there isnt going to be any new nutty features and even if they do have FWD on the Model Y, they seem to have that figured out. The same goes for Gigafactories. Once they hit volume, its just a matter of building giant building and copying the equipment, though I assume Tesla will not do that and they will iterate the design of the Gigafactory with each subsequent factory. The more automation they have on these factories the easier it is to copy, because there is no learning curve, the robots and software dont car what country or building they are in. The next iteration of the Gigafacory should be a combined Battery + Solar + Vehicle plant. How huge of a building is that going to be? Fremont + Nevada + NY in one enormous building or campus?
Reciprocity
Active Member
Does that 3.765M people include Children and Elderly who dont drive? One Tesla for every ~100 driving age person in the country. Pretty awesome.
I´d answer this with an "absolutely not". Norway is pretty special in green possibilities and ev incentives.
It`s downright crazy in comparison to pretty much every other market.
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Benzinga - Adam Jonas on Cars with Mention of Tesla - 23 minutes ago: Avis Budget Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:CAR), First Trust Exchange-Traded Fund II First Trust NASDAQ Global (NASDAQ:CARZ) - Morgan Stanley On Autos: Expect Autonomous 'Noise,' 'Idiosyncratic' Returns
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For sure. My point was more that even if you assume zero deliveries for the entire Christmas week, which is something that clearly is too pessimistic, Norway still likely ends up with a new monthly record for Tesla registrations, by a pretty wide margin. (10%-25% higher than the prior record)
dc_h
Active Member
Agreed, no auto mfr native to Norway and electricity is probably half the avg European price and fewer long term incentives.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
Some quotes:
Jonas anticipates a successful Model 3 ramp inspiring material change in auto investor theses and forming a chasm in the electric vehicle field between Tesla and its competitors.
...
the transition toward electric and autonomous systems is seen to incentivize OEMs to return to vertical integration models, which shifts outsourcing business from suppliers and puts those exposed to the old auto industry at risk of obviation.
...
he expects Tesla volatility based on destressing of its balance sheet.
Translation:
M3 will be an insurmountable mote
Bosch and their likes are in trouble
Bosch and their likes are in trouble
I think that volatility in 2018 will be fun to watch.
It's a start-up company that was founded by the founder of a website about cars (yiche.com) about two years ago, major backers include Tencent, among other big names in China. They marketed the car having a range of 500 km when driven at 60 km/h. NEDC rated at 355 km or roughly 200 miles. Where range comes short, they are offering a plan of leasing the battery and battery swap as a way to recharge.
BYD is still in the process of transforming away from LiFeO4 cells, which will be disqualified from receiving incentives from the government in the near future.
I counted registered voters, total population is ~5200000. I thought registered voters are kinda the same as drivers, so potential customers.
Mike Smith
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