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2017 Investor Roundtable:General Discussion

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"Major navigation overhaul coming in early 2018. Will be light-years ahead of current system, but we are testing it rigorously before rolling out."

What kind of navigation system can be "light-years away?" I'm not imaginative enough to predict what's coming, but maybe some here are?

Maps updated in quasi real-time to reflect reality (i.e. new roads, construction, detours) versus getting a big dump of map data every N years. Any full self driving implementation would require this too.

RT
 
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So there's supposedly going to be a "2 to 4 gigafactories" announced by the end of the year, anybody think it's still coming? These are pretty big deals, probably international gov/private partnerships etc., so it would be interesting to see far along any agreements are. Also coast to coast road trip was supposed to happen, anybody think that's on the table still? Also was that going to be a demo or a download to all cars?
 
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So there's supposedly going to be a "2 to 4 gigafactories" announced by the end of the year, anybody think it's still coming? These are pretty big deals, probably international gov/private partnerships etc., so it would be interesting to see far along any agreements are. Also coast to coast road trip was supposed to happen, anybody think that's on the table still? Also was that going to be a demo or a download to all cars?
Doubt any big capex announcement until Model 3 is cash flow positive. Guessing that is at least 2500 per week.
 
New NAV maps: You will need the 'light years ahead' ones for future developments in AD. Tesla is going for a the redundancy needed for FSD: Their solution: Cameras to mimic the human eye and a back up (redundancy) of maps/geopositioning.
 
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And if you are in IT this does make sense. However if a second production line sets you back a few hundred millions I'm sure you go back to optimizing
True. But Tesla didn’t know that untill they integrated the third party stuff.
I meant that some performance targets had been set, and if that unfortunate third party had met those, Tesla wouldn’t have looked closer and they would certainly not have reengineered it to be 3 times faster as originally set forward. That’s something you normally only do after it works, and there are no more urgent things to work on. Now it totally did not meet their targets, and they were forced to put more effort in it than originally expected.
Remember Tesla’s target for the inital Model 3 line is Alien Dreadnought 0.5, if the third party had delivered as expected, Tesla might have found out in the de developmeny phase of alient dreadnought 1.0 that they could improve that stage by 3x.
 
So there's supposedly going to be a "2 to 4 gigafactories" announced by the end of the year, anybody think it's still coming? These are pretty big deals, probably international gov/private partnerships etc., so it would be interesting to see far along any agreements are. Also coast to coast road trip was supposed to happen, anybody think that's on the table still? Also was that going to be a demo or a download to all cars?
No and no. These things are coming but not this year. Model 3 ramp is getting the focus now as it should. I believe they will happen some time in 2018.
 
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What would make me thrilled given now dampened expectations from earlier this year? 100K Model S and X deliveries in 2017 and an exit production rate of >1,000 Model 3 per week, or essentially saying 'now Model 3 production exceeds Model S and Model X'. Market would love this and anything more, especially a faster production rate for the 3 would be exceptional.
 
Doubt any big capex announcement until Model 3 is cash flow positive. Guessing that is at least 2500 per week.
That's a good point.
What would make me thrilled given now dampened expectations from earlier this year? 100K Model S and X deliveries in 2017 and an exit production rate of >1,000 Model 3 per week, or essentially saying 'now Model 3 production exceeds Model S and Model X'. Market would love this and anything more, especially a faster production rate for the 3 would be exceptional.
Supposedly they were expecting 2-3000 a week by end of year iirc, but that was almost two months ago. Good point about the exceeding s+x production, didn't realize how close they were to doing that.
 
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If they can equal S+X production by end of January I think that would be very bullish. I still think production is still thought to be closer to Adam Jonas then the average tmc forum poster.

Edit: investment community thinks 8000 in Q1 more likely than 20,000 to 30,000. If TSLA makes and delivers 50,000 cars in Q1, they are likely cash flow positive m, if not profitable.
 
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Curious as to what other peoples' best guesses might be about how many Model 3s Tesla will be able to produce on a weekly basis at the start of 2018. Of course, this could ramp up pretty steeply in January and February, but I'm curious to hear peoples's thoughts about the starting point of model 3 weekly production going into 2018 instead of Q4 deliveries. 500? Educated guesses? Thoughts?
 
Well I think the market in general think Tesla is still in deep bottlenecks problems.
Anything over 250 a week would make them happy IF it's also stated that they're making very good progress.

Now having that said, with 250 a week production rate the market would probably react positively, but I wouldn't expect major upside.
 
Not sure if low interest loans were available in all of Europe or just Norway.

How do these low interest loans work? The going market interest rate in the US seems to be above 4%. Current Auto Loan Interest Rates | Bankrate.com

Does Tesla provide some form of consideration to the financial institutions offering below-market loans? If so, where does the expense show up on Tesla's Income Statement? In COGS?, Interest Expense? or in SG&A (as Marketing?)

The 8 year bonds Tesla sold in August had a coupon of 5.3%. Charging just 0.99% on new car loans make doesn't seem to makes sense unless there are very large down payments and expensive origination fees?
 
How do these low interest loans work? The going market interest rate in the US seems to be above 4%. Current Auto Loan Interest Rates | Bankrate.com

Does Tesla provide some form of consideration to the financial institutions offering below-market loans? If so, where does the expense show up on Tesla's Income Statement? In COGS?, Interest Expense? or in SG&A (as Marketing?)

The 8 year bonds Tesla sold in August had a coupon of 5.3%. Charging just 0.99% on new car loans make doesn't seem to makes sense unless there are very large down payments and expensive origination fees?
Exchange rates may hav been favorable and lowering interest rates may be preferable over lowering prices. Good for revenue bad for Sales and gen administration costs.
 
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