bdy0627
Active Member
I'm hearing that from several people, so I don't think you're wrong. I probably somehow read some outlier posts and generalized them. Sorry to skew the situation. Glad that's the exception rather than the rule.
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Thumper
Active Member
Rapid ramp FUD: Too many too fast, can't service, can't charge, low quality, can't deliver, can't sustain etc.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
This close to the official PR expected around Tue next week? I don't think Elon should steal this thunder from his PR people and in just 140 (or even 280) characters. This is when you set the PR team loose and let them have some fun.
View attachment 269318
Bullish; only a week after 984 vins issued.
Edit: beaten to it in milliseconds
Nice! I read somewhere that they were aiming for 1000 last week (some posters friend who works at the factory as a source I think, can´t find it now), so that would be in line.
History of VIN registrations with NHTSA as per Model 3 VINs (@Model3VINs) | Twitter, added my analysis in blue:
- Oct 28: 494 new VINs, rounded to 21/day used assuming assigned in the following 24 days until...
- Nov 21: 1201 new VINs, rounded to 41/day used assuming assigned in the following 29 days until...
- Dec 20: 954 new VINs, rounded to 119/day used assuming assigned in the following 9 days until...
- Dec 28: 3568 new VINs
Those rates are assuming no days off and that they are using the VINs from the day they register them until registration of the next batch, which is most likely not sharp in reality. Still should give an idea how things are progressing. I´d also dare to say that the more VINs they register, the more sure they are of what is ahead.
MartinAustin
Active Member
Copper is now trading at its highest level in 4 years. Can't possibly help Tesla's gross margin... but I wonder how much difference it makes
Bet TSLA
Active Member
Elon is the PR team.
Overall, the percentage of sales price that is copper is low enough that it won't affect things much. It is a much bigger factor when you are selling a wire harness at low margins and copper is the dominant expense. (formerly worked for wire harness supplier during the previous copper price jumps in '08 and '10, current price is still below that)
The wire harness supplier is likely locked into a sales price with quarterly/ yearly adjustments for raw materials. Given that Tesla makes its own motors, they may have similar pricing agreements in place on the wire they use.
^It looks like Model 3 uses a lot of aluminum cables: Tesla Model 3: supplier says it received an order for 3,000 km of ‘shielded aluminum cables’ from Tesla
Regarding the price of Cu, or of Al, etc., in a Tesla:
I think you'll find it a revealing exercise to:
On edit: Hmm. I didn't write this post with anything funny in mind, yet as of time of this edit, it's received 5 "funnies". That's funny.....
I think you'll find it a revealing exercise to:
- go to the CME table to learn what the price of a bushel of wheat is
- go to your refrigerator, freezer, pantry or store to learn what the price of a loaf of bread is
- determine how many bushels of wheat are in that loaf of bread
- contemplate how that relates to Teslas
On edit: Hmm. I didn't write this post with anything funny in mind, yet as of time of this edit, it's received 5 "funnies". That's funny.....
DragonWatch
Small FootPrint
New girlfriend asks me why I spend so much money into TSLA .... hmmm
Maybe I should ease up ?
My wife suggests you consider a new girlfriend
My wife has chewed my bottom on several occasions for investing her IRA in Tesla; but now she totally loves her MX and her stock is finally making numbers. So, life is good Even at these numbers Oh, by the way we celebrate our 44th anniversary Saturday
Thought experiment (okay that sounds a little grand for this): in the update letter next week, what could they say (that is reasonable) that would move the stock trajectory up in a fairly steady/meaningful way? My probably overly optimistic guess is they probably didn't produce x,000 secret model 3's in q4, so that's probably out. But it's possible the 5,000 a week in March projection was conservative and they could say we solved x problems earlier than expected and now we think we'll do 5,000 week in February and x,000 a week in January or something like that. Although to play the other side, I guess they could also say they weren't able to solve x problems as fast as they thought and now it's going to be 5,000 a week in June
jschwefel
Tesla fan/TSLA, Model Y and Cybertruck owner.
Congratulations on 44 years of marriage. I’m half way there and similarly, my wife is not too sure about about all of our TSLA holdings.My wife suggests you consider a new girlfriend
Weeks like this don’t help, but I keep reminding myself of what Tesla will look like in 2022. I’m thinking it’ll be a lot bigger. In the meantime, I’ll continue to enjoy driving the Model S.
Thought experiment (okay that sounds a little grand for this): in the update letter next week, what could they say (that is reasonable) that would move the stock trajectory up in a fairly steady/meaningful way? My probably overly optimistic guess is they probably didn't produce x,000 secret model 3's in q4, so that's probably out. But it's possible the 5,000 a week in March projection was conservative and they could say we solved x problems earlier than expected and now we think we'll do 5,000 week in February and x,000 a week in January or something like that. Although to play the other side, I guess they could also say they weren't able to solve x problems as fast as they thought and now it's going to be 5,000 a week in June
Tesla Q3 2017 Vehicle Deliveries and Production (NASDAQ:TSLA)
UPDATE - Tesla Q2 2017 Vehicle Production and Deliveries (NASDAQ:TSLA)
Nothing to do with Tesla, but I'm just going to leave this here,,,,,Time-lapse video: Falcon Heavy goes vertical at launch pad 39A – Spaceflight Now
I think on the last conference call they promised to give more color than typical on the state of production problem resolution, this time?
Yeah I remember they specifically said they would include more details and less ambiguous time frames to solving them.
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