2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[jbcarioca]

I don't understand the logic behind the hand wringing over battery breakthroughs...

Because everyone is concerned about increased energy density, power density and durability as well as reduced cost.
Everyone includes Airbus, Boeing and every auto maker as well as Apple, Black and Decker and everyone else who put batteries in their products.
I think the logic is not so much whether Tesla will be in a leadership position as it is that energy storage technology is growing more important every day.
Frankly, even ten years ago we'd probably not imagined that energy storage would be such a major part of public utility needs everywhere.

Maybe it is not so much hand wringing as it is acute interest. of course I speak only for myself. I suspect we all express things here in terms of Tesla because that is our common subject, even though we all know these subjects are of worldwide importance. Then, Tesla does have open source patents...

 

[Tslynk67]

I can't believe this happened tonight. DW and I were taking our usual evening walk and she said she had been reading all these negative things about TESLA and their stock on the Internet. She asked if we shouldn't get out of TSLA while the getting is good. I went into apoplectic shock! I am not a sophisticated stock investor and she is even less so. I am a long but from reading this thread, I guess she would be called a "weak long." I tried to remain calm and reassure her. I told her about Puerto Rico, China deal, more countries phasing out ICE, SEMI, Boring, PowerWalls, and what a "short" is and what motivates them. These so-called annalists are really doing a job on TESLA and weak longs. She was ecstatic with TSLA in August and September but these last few days have been brutal from her viewpoint and has left her discouraged. I told her not to look at the stock on a daily basis, that is meaningless and counterproductive. I told her to read the positive about TSLA as well as the negative. I know she took my advice and viewpoint under serious consideration. We shall see.

I want to thank the participants in this thread (even the ones I have on ignore) for giving me some background and basis for addressing her concerns. I don't have much to contribute to this thread but I do read it faithfully. Thanks.

Well my better half never looks at TSLA share price, she only reads the articles on major news sites, like BBC. Then the other side of the story is that I only inform her when TSLA has had big green days or hits and ATH. In fact she says she doesn't really want to know as she understands we're in it long anyway.

She's a smart girl (with the exception of her choice of mate, perhaps)

 

[jelloslug]

Will VIN 1134 be worth more than other VINs?

Hell yea!

 

[LoveTSLA]

Let's see how far the NSDQ will drag it down? To a point, it will hold the line --- 335?

 

[racer26]

Because everyone is concerned about increased energy density, power density and durability as well as reduced cost.
Everyone includes Airbus, Boeing and every auto maker as well as Apple, Black and Decker and everyone else who put batteries in their products.
I think the logic is not so much whether Tesla will be in a leadership position as it is that energy storage technology is growing more important every day.
Frankly, even ten years ago we'd probably not imagined that energy storage would be such a major part of public utility needs everywhere.

Maybe it is not so much hand wringing as it is acute interest. of course I speak only for myself. I suspect we all express things here in terms of Tesla because that is our common subject, even though we all know these subjects are of worldwide importance. Then, Tesla does have open source patents...

I mean yes, the holy grail of battery technologies is energy dense, power dense, durable AND cheap. Lots of companies want that, but the important factor is cheap, and economies of scale guarantee Tesla wins on that front. If you build more batteries than anyone else, you're going to build them the cheapest, on a per-unit basis (generally speaking).

Just think about the x86 processor wars - Intel and AMD both were never significantly impacted by the other developing a smaller process to build more power-dense chips, they simply kept one-upping each other.

I just see absolutely zero risk to Tesla's business from someone else developing a significant battery tech improvement. Any improvements they can make will be either a) small enough they're dwarfed by Tesla's unit-cost advantage or b) significant enough that Tesla will be the first actor or approached by the inventor.

 

[Navin]

I’m joining institonal investors and also buying on this weakness as retail investors get out of the stock out of anger and fear.

Money Flows: Buying on Weakness - Markets Data Center - WSJ.com

 

[Waiting4M3]

I have a feeling M3 production is turning a corner:

• next 1000 VIN after 1134 registered with NHTSA
• 2nd M3 delivery in NY 2 days ago
• 1st M3 delivery in Ohio 2 days ago, lucky girl .... and lucky guy
• 1st M3 delivery in Oregon yesterday
• M3 delivery estimate page seems to have been worked on yesterday
• rumor of high volume train delivery contracting targeting end of Nov

 

[Navin]

I have a feeling M3 production is turning a corner:

• next 1000 VIN after 1134 registered with NHTSA
• 2nd M3 delivery in NY 2 days ago
• 1st M3 delivery in Ohio 2 days ago, lucky girl .... and lucky guy
• 1st M3 delivery in Oregon yesterday
• M3 delivery estimate page seems to have been worked on yesterday
• rumor of high volume train delivery contracting targeting end of Nov

Biggest sign that things are moving along is tesla has yet to change delivery estimates. Knowing there are a bunch of ambulance chasing law firms and paid shorts and media after them about this - they would have taken the estimates down or moved them if there wasn’t internal confidence in the numbers. Why do you think guys like myusername and mmd are posting in volume for the past couple of days. This is their best shot at shaking the trees.

 

[LargeHamCollider]

Well my better half never looks at TSLA share price, she only reads the articles on major news sites, like BBC. Then the other side of the story is that I only inform her when TSLA has had big green days or hits and ATH. In fact she says she doesn't really want to know as she understands we're in it long anyway.

She's a smart girl (with the exception of her choice of mate, perhaps)

Heh, same situation here.

Edit: Also I bought more J19s again yesterday, if price stays around 333 will buy a couple more today.

 

[avoigt]

I have a feeling M3 production is turning a corner:

• next 1000 VIN after 1134 registered with NHTSA
• 1st M3 sighting in Minnesota yesterday
  
• 2nd M3 delivery in NY 2 days ago
• 1st M3 delivery in Ohio 2 days ago, lucky girl .... and lucky guy
• 1st M3 delivery in Oregon yesterday
• M3 delivery estimate page seems to have been worked on yesterday
• rumor of high volume train delivery contracting targeting end of Nov

Let me make the math, makes...... 4 in total right?

I beliebe we need to see a very different order of magnitude to conclude on solved production issues. Something like big truck/train loads of M3s are leaving the factory almost ever 5 minutes.

 

[Lessmog]

Well my better half never looks at TSLA share price, she only reads the articles on major news sites, like BBC. Then the other side of the story is that I only inform her when TSLA has had big green days or hits and ATH. In fact she says she doesn't really want to know as she understands we're in it long anyway.

She's a smart girl (with the exception of her choice of mate, perhaps)

Heh, same situation here.

#Me too
OOps.

 

[kenliles]

Well my better half never looks at TSLA share price... [ ] She's a smart girl (with the exception of her choice of mate, perhaps)

Heh, same situation here.

My girl has always appreciated my long position--
you guys must have a different problem

 

[viKtor slamet]

$360 to $337 in 3 trading days, avg -$8/day. At this rate we would be $0 by xmas. You can kiss goodbye to shanghai plant dream

Continuing the rate of -$8/day, we should close at $321 today and should end the week at $303. Would be below $300 before earning release. Math 101, So easy. Will pick up truckloads when this becomes pennystock near xmas.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Let me make the math, makes...... 4 in total right?

I beliebe we need to see a very different order of magnitude to conclude on solved production issues. Something like big truck/train loads of M3s are leaving the factory almost ever 5 minutes.

I agree that this is not conclusive, this is just my gut feeling reading the tea leaves. BTW the Minn M3 appears to have been delivered in Sep from other comments that I've since read. So I've removed it from my post. The NY/OH/OR deliveries may very well just been the same slow trickling out. We won't know for sure, until we get hit in the face with hundreds of M3 in 1-2 weeks. I wouldn't recommend anyone buying the dip just based on my hunches. I myself am already all in, mostly shares accumulated in the last 3 years which are doing very well, but also some shares/LEAP from Aug/Sep which are currently under water. So I'm just scoreboard watching ATM. Hope everyone can stay calm and hold on for the ride.

 

[kenliles]

Will pick up truckloads when this becomes pennystock near xmas.

use one of these

 

[viKtor slamet]

use one of these
View attachment 256079

One this becomes penny stock near xmas, will bet the farm and make myself 51% holder. Will appoint myself new CEO, forces Ewon to abandon spaceX, boring, and hyperloop, to focus on Tesla only. Will hire Tim Cook as COO. And ride the stock to $1,000 by 2019

 

[luvb2b]

so this is ~3 month lows. heavy shorting such as i highlighted yesterday almost always follows with a further 10-15 pt drop. we might still get into the low 320s yet today or tomorrow. another concerning point is that the head and shoulders formation on the daily will complete as we break the 330 neck line.

sometimes high shorting is a sign of a larger coming drop as it was in mid june. and sometimes after another 10-15 points the stock can gradually turn. i think the next earnings will look quite bad from an eps/cash flow perspective, so am wondering now when the turn could come.

technicals aside i think it will take vin's and deliveries to put a real turn.

 

[Mkorpal]

Let me make the math, makes...... 4 in total right?

I beliebe we need to see a very different order of magnitude to conclude on solved production issues. Something like big truck/train loads of M3s are leaving the factory almost ever 5 minutes.

I'm really waiting till we start spotting some 4 digit VINs. That will be when I feel better.

 

[stealthology]

Biggest sign that things are moving along is tesla has yet to change delivery estimates. Knowing there are a bunch of ambulance chasing law firms and paid shorts and media after them about this - they would have taken the estimates down or moved them if there wasn’t internal confidence in the numbers. Why do you think guys like myusername and mmd are posting in volume for the past couple of days. This is their best shot at shaking the trees.

Do you think that, baked into the price, Tesla is still expected to hit Elon's 5,000 Model 3's per week production by the end of year?

 

[sunhelm]

how are you sure she wasn't the rational one in the conversation? I can't tell you how many times I've had a discussion on this board about valuation with it ending in "why can't you understand that we are just taking a risk with money we are not concerned about losing".

it sounds to me like she is taking a risk with money she is concerned about losing... and your response to her was supplied by a pure pro-tesla bias forum. believe it, there is very real risk of total loss with this company... and this stock is propped up so high it would be very damaging... especially to retail... AND I am not part of a short conspiracy. I simply have alternate views and observe this board as well.

Sure there is a risk of losing, it's par for the course with investing in stocks. But risks are relative So in the automotive sector, TSLA investors believe that TSLA is safer and saner than investing in OEM auto stocks. Most of us believe that the ICE car as a general mode of transportation is on the decline.

Look to GM as the bellwether for OEM - posted a Q3 loss of almost $3B , revenue on 14% decline compared to Q3 2016, halting production in factories due to mounting inventories of Buicks in dealer lots . Where demand is picking up, re: Bolt, orders have to be stopped as they cannot supply them (maybe this is where the statement - "losing for every car they sell" holds true because of battery cost). Compare this with Tesla, except for the exepcted loss at the bottomline, topline revenue is rising, demand is rising, factories at full crank, Model 3 reservations continue to flow in despite the delay.

I know that as I write this, a mini conflagration in TSLA SP is going, but this is a short term gyration, still holding true.