2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[AudubonB]

Continuing on the subject of obscure statistics....here is an irrelevant, but "fun" one:

Based on last 10Q's # of 160.87mm shares outstanding, during those few moments early today that TSLA was at or above $248.65, it likewise for the first time had a market cap greater than $40bn.

 

[Nate the Great]

Shares 11,748 @ 1.750 %

 

[racer26]

Also, worth considering that even if Q4 report is a mixed bag due to delivery miss and 6.5k in transit. We could see some really good guidance for Q1 and TE and maybe even some bullish comments on Model 3 progress - the market may care a lot more about these factors.

Also, what constitutes a miss?

Analysts are expecting a range from ($1.06) to $0.41 EPS (Avg ($0.25)) on $2.09B to $2.52B in revenue (avg $2.26B).

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Probably worth pointing this out.

Jonas's updated Bull Case price target of $497 only requires the following:

1) Tesla meets its Gigafactory and Model 3 guidance. ($337)

2,000 Model 3 delivered in 2017. 183,000 Vehicles in 2018. (It's not clear to me if this is 183,000 Model 3 or Tesla vehicles (all together).

2) Tesla mobility being worth ($128.)

3) Tesla Energy only being worth $16! 15% of Gigafactory output is devoted to Tesla Energy and output is sold at a 15% margin. ($16)

4) SolarCity being worth $16 a share, the value of the shares Tesla issued for the acquisition with a highlighted note stating "too early to tell if SolarCity will create any "material value" for shareholders" ($16)

The bull case looks very conservative. Also, there is another note stating the valuation doesn't include any future vehicles or additional products, Gigafactories, or other things that would create value for shareholders.

Jonas explains his prior price target was extra conservative and based on:

1) Wait and see approach to the Gigafactory.

2) Dynamic risk evaluation, including the SolarCity merger/acquisition.

3) Political uncertainty.

 

[Chris Fox]

Also, what constitutes a miss?

Analysts are expecting a range from ($1.06) to $0.41 EPS (Avg ($0.25)) on $2.09B to $2.52B in revenue (avg $2.26B).

What I like about Tesla reporting its quarterly numbers before ER, is expectations are already priced in. The day they announced the delivery miss Tesla's share price took a hit. Now expectations are low. If they miss its "Yes we knew that last month" if they actually surprise with a beat, there will be a huge share price increase

 

[geneclean55]

S&P 500 super tight range, and just barely holding middle bollinger band support at end of day. Probably a break one way or the other tmrw after 12. Will be interesting to see how TSLA behaves.

 

[austinEV]

Fun chart: take a look at the weekly chart. Looking back 2 years, We have had 2 long protracted periods of increases (near the beginning of the year) followed by choppy falls. The 2015 rise was about 14 weeks and 2016 was about 11. We are at 7 weeks on this run.

 

[Papafox]

After looking back on the day's trading, I think the main reason TSLA wasn't stronger today is that it had pushed through the top of the upper bolinger band in the morning. If you look at this chart : http://lab.moesalih.com/stocks?tsla you will see that as TSLA has headed up through the upper bolinger band, it never closes way above the band but always settles closer to the band or below it. I see it crossed above the upper bb about 8 times so far in this uptrend but only closed above the upper bb twice, and just barely.

Stated differently, the gap up in price this morning was so large that TSLA got ahead of itself and was trading outside the boundaries of where you'd expect it to remain while in the uptrend.

When seen in this light, TSLA is doing great. It just got a little ahead of itself today.

 

[Yggdrasill]

My thinking for the future is something like this:

2017:

Tesla Energy: 6.5 GWh, 2.5 billion USD revenue, 10% margin, 250 million gross profit
Tesla Model 3: 57k cars, 3.5 billion USD revenue, 10% margin, 350 million gross profit
Tesla Model S/X: 100k cars, 9 billion USD revenue, 30% margin, 2.7 billion gross profit
Solar Roof: 250 MW, 1.25 billion USD revenue, 10% margin, 125 million gross profit
Tesla Network: Zero.

Total gross profit would be 3.425 billion. Assuming 2.5 billion goes to run the company, the net profit could be 925 million. And a P/E multiplier of 50 means the company would be worth 46.25 billion USD. Assuming 170 million shares, that would be a SP of 272 USD.

2018:

Tesla Energy: 12.5 GWh, 5 billion USD revenue, 15% margin, 750 million gross profit
Tesla Model 3: 373k cars, 20 billion USD revenue, 20% margin, 4 billion gross profit
Tesla Model S/X: 120k cars, 10.5 billion USD revenue, 30% margin, 3.15 billion gross profit
Solar Roof: 1 GW, 5 billion USD revenue, 15% margin, 750 million gross profit
Tesla Network: Zero.

Total gross profit would be 8.65 billion. Assuming 3.65 billion goes to run the company, the net profit could be 5 billion. And a P/E multiplier of 20 means the company would be worth 100 billion USD. Assuming 180 million shares, that would be a SP of 555 USD.

2019:

Tesla Energy: 30 GWh, 10 billion USD revenue, 15% margin, 1.5 billion gross profit
Tesla Model 3/Y: 500k cars, 25 billion USD revenue, 20% margin, 5 billion gross profit
Tesla Model S/X: 120k cars, 10.5 billion USD revenue, 30% margin, 3.15 billion gross profit
Solar Roof: 2 GW, 10 billion USD revenue, 15% margin, 1.5 billion gross profit
Tesla Network: Zero.

Total gross profit would be 11.15 billion. Assuming 4.15 billion goes to run the company, the net profit could be 7 billion. And a P/E multiplier of 20 means the company would be worth 140 billion USD. Assuming 190 million shares, that would be a SP of 736 USD.

 

[Lump]

Fun MBLY vs TSLA 2 year chart (TSLA in purple)

 

[DragonWatch]

Thanks @austinEV & @Papafox ~ both provide good background going forward. Tomorrow will be interesting, I think quiet to sideways.

 

[DragonWatch]

What I like about Tesla reporting its quarterly numbers before ER, is expectations are already priced in. The day they announced the delivery miss Tesla's share price took a hit. Now expectations are low. If they miss its "Yes we knew that last month" if they actually surprise with a beat, there will be a huge share price increase

It should also be noted with the lesser deliveries, Tesla stated that even though a car was fully paid for, it was not counted for numbers of deliveries if not in the possession of the buyer. Tesla did not say they did not count the money. So, depending on how many cars were actually paid for prior to taking personal delivery in 4Q16, the dollars could be healthy in 4Q16.

 

[Bgarret]

My thinking for the future is something like this:

2017:

Tesla Energy: 6.5 GWh, 2.5 billion USD revenue, 10% margin, 250 million gross profit
Tesla Model 3: 57k cars, 3.5 billion USD revenue, 10% margin, 350 million gross profit
Tesla Model S/X: 100k cars, 9 billion USD revenue, 30% margin, 2.7 billion gross profit
Solar Roof: 250 MW, 1.25 billion USD revenue, 10% margin, 125 million gross profit
Tesla Network: Zero.

Total gross profit would be 3.425 billion. Assuming 2.5 billion goes to run the company, the net profit could be 925 million. And a P/E multiplier of 50 means the company would be worth 46.25 billion USD. Assuming 170 million shares, that would be a SP of 272 USD.

2018:

Tesla Energy: 12.5 GWh, 5 billion USD revenue, 15% margin, 750 million gross profit
Tesla Model 3: 373k cars, 20 billion USD revenue, 20% margin, 4 billion gross profit
Tesla Model S/X: 120k cars, 10.5 billion USD revenue, 30% margin, 3.15 billion gross profit
Solar Roof: 1 GW, 5 billion USD revenue, 15% margin, 750 million gross profit
Tesla Network: Zero.

Total gross profit would be 8.65 billion. Assuming 3.65 billion goes to run the company, the net profit could be 5 billion. And a P/E multiplier of 20 means the company would be worth 100 billion USD. Assuming 180 million shares, that would be a SP of 555 USD.

2019:

Tesla Energy: 30 GWh, 10 billion USD revenue, 15% margin, 1.5 billion gross profit
Tesla Model 3/Y: 500k cars, 25 billion USD revenue, 20% margin, 5 billion gross profit
Tesla Model S/X: 120k cars, 10.5 billion USD revenue, 30% margin, 3.15 billion gross profit
Solar Roof: 2 GW, 10 billion USD revenue, 15% margin, 1.5 billion gross profit
Tesla Network: Zero.

Total gross profit would be 11.15 billion. Assuming 4.15 billion goes to run the company, the net profit could be 7 billion. And a P/E multiplier of 20 means the company would be worth 140 billion USD. Assuming 190 million shares, that would be a SP of 736 USD.

So are you telling me to keep my Jan 2019 250s I bought for $25 when TSLA was trading at 198??? Just want to be clear, cause my magic 8 ball says "Cannot Predict Now". I like the 555 - 736 range just fine.

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

Fun chart: take a look at the weekly chart. Looking back 2 years, We have had 2 long protracted periods of increases (near the beginning of the year) followed by choppy falls. The 2015 rise was about 14 weeks and 2016 was about 11. We are at 7 weeks on this run.

View attachment 211327

So we possibly have a few more weeks on this run, or we are breaking out of a 2.5 year range, possibly similar like the 2.5 year range we had from Dec 2010-April 2013. That was a 6 month straight run.

Borrowed from Twitter:
stock options picks on Twitter

 

[austinEV]

So we possibly have a few more weeks on this run, or we are breaking out of a 2.5 year range, possibly similar like the 2.5 year range we had from Dec 2010-April 2013. That was a 6 month straight run.

View attachment 211333

Borrowed from Twitter:
stock options picks on Twitter

That's the million dollar question. I hope in 3 weeks I am worrying about what to do at 270 per share. I do think we break out this year but when... second half makes sense because that's when M3 ships. But, maybe the market values it up in 1H.

 

[Krugerrand]

It really makes no difference how TSLA does today
Long term this is at least a $1000 stock

Have you said before what your target date is for that $1k SP?

 

[GoTslaGo]

Fun MBLY vs TSLA 2 year chart (TSLA in purple)
View attachment 211328 View attachment 211328

Are they merging?!

(Joke, joke...)

 

[theschnell]

That's the million dollar question. I hope in 3 weeks I am worrying about what to do at 270 per share. I do think we break out this year but when... second half makes sense because that's when M3 ships. But, maybe the market values it up in 1H.

Push through all-time high in anticipation of M3 and on strong X and S production and sales. Then fall back when M3 is late. If M3 is on schedule, takeoff to new higher trading range.

 

[TrendTrader007]

Have you said before what your target date is for that $1k SP?

Well a $1000 SP implies a market cap of approximately $160 Billion for TSLA which may take at least couple of years

 

[Krugerrand]

Well a $1000 SP implies a market cap of approximately $160 Billion for TSLA which may take at least couple of years

So, 2019. Good to know.