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2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

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FWIW, the below is showing on some trading desks, pretty sure it's BS. It's the reason for the mini drop and volume @ 1:45:



Desperation.

I am actually enjoying all the FUD. Its clear to me its not having any negative effect on the stock and it more then likely is actually being orchestrated to compound the squeeze effect. I mean some of this stuff is just utterly ridiculous including the latest gem for Squeezing Alphalpha, where they claim Tesla is now at a disadvantage with battery costs because we found out the Bolts replacement battery costs over $15,000 ($260/KWh). And that Model 3 is going to lose so much money for each car because gigafactories are expensive. I mean its just silly at this point. So I am embracing the FUD for what it is, A super squeeze enhancer.
 
Jim, I am good with all of it but the poetry.
NO poetry in the investor threads.

Someone posted a poem Friday AM right before the big drop. So, while much of the blame for the drop was algo related I suspect someone has an algos that picks up poetry on this site and all h*ll breaks lose.:rolleyes:;)

Well yeah, the poetry plus the markets trying to screw @Jayjs20 out of his leveraged position. Its so obvious in hindsight.
 
An observation: today's TSLA strength is in the face of even more concrete confirmation than ever before, that Apple is working on a car, i.e. a rival product to one of Tesla's businesses.

In times past, any time there was a sniff of Apple working on a car, TSLA would take a hit. That hasn't happened lately, and certainly isn't happening today while reports of Tim Cook confirming autonomous car development circulate.
 
An observation: today's TSLA strength is in the face of even more concrete confirmation than ever before, that Apple is working on a car, i.e. a rival product to one of Tesla's businesses.

In times past, any time there was a sniff of Apple working on a car, TSLA would take a hit. That hasn't happened lately, and certainly isn't happening today while reports of Tim Cook confirming autonomous car development circulate.

Eventually, the logic will flip. Instead of "the sky is falling because BMW is making an EV" it will be "Tesla's strategic clarity and first mover advantage confirmed by another me-too announcement".
 
Eventually, the logic will flip. Instead of "the sky is falling because BMW is making an EV" it will be "Tesla's strategic clarity and first mover advantage confirmed by another me-too announcement".

Wouldn't it be ironic if MS's thesis that the majors' entrance into EVs would prove to be Tesla's downfall, proves to be recognized by the market as Tesla's first mover advantage.

Wow that's gotta suck for him. If MS is reading this, it's not too late to get out of shorting Tesla. Let Chanos take the hit, save yourself!
 
We are back in the squeeze dynamic.

$10Bil is collectively line in the sand for shorts. As the price goes up they are pressured to cover. As they buy to cover the price goes up further. Unless something gives they can't escape.

Remember for every trade there is a buyer and seller. What determines the direction of price is the pressure/desperation one side is facing.

Longs are in no pressure to sell. When is TSLA *really* overvalued for most of our core holdings? $600 in 2017? Would we really consider Tesla overvalued at $100 Bil? Remember it doesn't matter what shorts or outsiders think the valuation should be. As long as longs collectively don't believe it is overvalued, there is no selling pressure.

On the other hand shorts are in constant pressure to cover as price keeps creeping up. This is a vicious cycle for them.

I tell you one other interesting anecdote.

Back in early 2013 the bet on the short side was Tesla will run out of money and imminently go bankrupt. But in reality Tesla was about to break even with first volume deliveries. Musk changed his profile picture holding a toy monkey similar to how a child would show you a toy. Only after they announced that they were profitable it became clear what that picture meant. He was answering "Show me the mon(k)ey". Price went through the roof as the imminent bankruptcy thesis got destroyed.

The tweet to a video clip of two dudes hanging on a cross is very telling. He posted it right after warning the shorts "could be worse".

PS: I see no camping out. Sorry JHM. Actually I forgot if you are Jim or James. Would be nice to refer you by name :)

PPS: @myusername really, seriously, don't be stupid, don't short the stock. If you don't like it stay away.
 
An observation: today's TSLA strength is in the face of even more concrete confirmation than ever before, that Apple is working on a car, i.e. a rival product to one of Tesla's businesses.

In times past, any time there was a sniff of Apple working on a car, TSLA would take a hit. That hasn't happened lately, and certainly isn't happening today while reports of Tim Cook confirming autonomous car development circulate.
Actually, it is coming as Tim Cook confirmed Apple is not building a car.

Tim Cook Says Apple Focused on Autonomous Systems in Cars Push
 
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<snip> Back in early 2013 the bet on the short side was Tesla will run out of money and imminently go bankrupt. But in reality Tesla was about to break even with first volume deliveries. Musk changed his profile picture holding a toy monkey similar to how a child would show you a toy. Only after they announced that they were profitable it became clear what that picture meant. He was answering "Show me the mon(k)ey". Price went through the roof as the imminent bankruptcy thesis got destroyed.

The tweet to a video clip of two dudes hanging on a cross is very telling. He posted it right after warning the shorts "could be worse".

As that clip from Life of Brian shows, Elon seems to like goofy movies. Keeping the Stormy in Shortville theme in mind, I think Elon's "could be worse" tweet could be a reference to this clip from Young Frankenstein (another classic):

 
I still don't see how this can be used against you. In your poker table analogy, the stock market is a BFT (a big f'n table). If I approach this BFT declaring I want to sell at $380to use as down payment for my house, will the shorts then try to manipulate the market so I, a mere minnow in the ocean that is the BFT, gets denied my dreams?

George Clooney tried it once thinking it could save his life!
If Jim Cramer pulled that George Clooney move, I might be inclined to short! :D
 
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