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Waiting4M3
Active Member
Similarly, when Cramer says you should buy something, it's time to sell
I still trust my money more on Spiegel, when he covers his short position, its the signal for me to sell
This is informative.
To me it doesn't quite matter whether the dynamic fits a specific definition or not.
All I'm interested is if the dynamic is recursive (self reinforcing) with declining short interest in shares. Then we are all set, the rally will go on.
The usage of word squeeze is just convenient. To avoid religious battles over vocabulary I try to use phrases like "squeeze dynamic".
To me the data I have been posting very much indicates recursiveness. I will post some math tomorrow. I believe a 1% increase in stock price forces enough covering to create roughly another 1% move up. The cycle will keep repeating itself barring major external events.
So the machine is already set in motion. Shorts will face a slow painful death with no chance to move. Like the guys on the cross in the tweet. If they move too vigorously, they exhaust themselves too quickly and die sooner.
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I read on here, that Ihor is bearish on TSLA. 'Just portfolio adjustments' could indeed be referring to continual adjustments at this high and increasing SP.
Doubt this week, but maybe July. Just my WAG.
Edit: Quick eyeball of trendlines, next week not out of the question for 400...
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Ok did a quick check. Max Pain for friday is 332.50.
jhm
Well-Known Member
Not totally out of the question if all the wrong things are said tomorrow at the FOMC meeting. Between seasonality and days-since-5%-correction stats, a 3-5% dip this week or next would not surprise me in the least. Not saying it's going to, just saying it "feels" like there's a higher potential for it now vs say, a month ago.
Looking at the open interest graph though, $350/$355 looks more likely. There's clearly strong support in the $350-355 area, so that gets my vote if we see a macro dip this week. If it's severe, $330 is more likely than $332.50 due to the combined ~16k $330 calls and puts. Next closest (going up) is ~6k @ $340 and ~10k @ $350 as well as $355, and ~9k @ $360, with the much larger "wall of puts" being on $355.
(for those of you who may not have heard the reasoning)
"Pinning" is where the effects of rebalancing delta hedges from calls and puts expiring (theta decay) & closing (typically selling long calls/puts) balances out. If there's a peak of calls at $350, and the stock is at $353, when people sell to close those calls to take profits before expiration, closing the delta hedge of long shares means selling those shares. Closer to the price is to $350, the less the delta of those calls, so fewer shares are sold to close the hedge, resulting in less downward pressure. Puts are hedged by being short stock, so selling to close a long put means the market maker buys to cover those shares, which results in upward pressure. Closer we get to expiration, the less the OTM options matter, and the more nearby peaks of open interest do.
Whenever you guys start talking about 'max pain' I always get this song playing in my head
bdy0627
Active Member
With regards to deciding when it is time to deleverage or reduce your TSLA exposure, assuming you dynamically adjust your exposure based upon the share price, it's hard to argue with Jesse Livermore:
"One of the most helpful things that anybody can learn is to give up trying to catch the last eighth - or the first. These two are the most expensive eights in the world."
"One of the most helpful things that anybody can learn is to give up trying to catch the last eighth - or the first. These two are the most expensive eights in the world."
Looking to invest about $10K into Tesla - finally got the wife on board, too bad I started trying when it was under 300.
I know no one knows the future, if they did we'd all be rich. I've done the research on valuation but Tesla is well known for being polarizing (especially to the short sellers) and even Musk says it's grossly overvalued. Many investors obviously think differently.
But if I buy tomorrow it will be around 377 at opening. Do you think scooping it up at that price is a bad idea, and do you think it's likely due for a correction in the near future? Seems awfully high based upon various target valuations. Stocks are always a gamble, but I figured this group has a bit more insight into Tesla because they have skin the game so I was looking for thoughts.
I know no one knows the future, if they did we'd all be rich. I've done the research on valuation but Tesla is well known for being polarizing (especially to the short sellers) and even Musk says it's grossly overvalued. Many investors obviously think differently.
But if I buy tomorrow it will be around 377 at opening. Do you think scooping it up at that price is a bad idea, and do you think it's likely due for a correction in the near future? Seems awfully high based upon various target valuations. Stocks are always a gamble, but I figured this group has a bit more insight into Tesla because they have skin the game so I was looking for thoughts.
Ameliorate
Member
Proof or it didn't happen.
Almost insulted people believed that rehash of when Elon did say the stock was overvalued in 2014 but a month ago.
He's been tweeting Way more than normal and it's helping drive the stock up. I see zero indication of such sentiment from Elon.
Good luck with your entry point (could do half now half later) In an uptrend it generally seems like sooner is better than later unless you catch a dip, but that was yesterday :S
Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
Buy one third, or maybe one half.
If it goes up, buy again.
If it goes down, buy again.
Whatever happens, you'll feel better you scooped some stock cheaper, and it prevents 'paralysis by analysis' syndrome
Why? He's already lost a bunch of money and publically humiliated himself by making one of the most epic bad calls of this bull market run.... saying Tsla will be zero when it was trading at 180 and we were buying....
I feel the same for bears that call a bottom a short opportunity as bulls that call a top a time to buy. Bad timing.
He just has everything to loose for being wrong. Tsla longs have a better upside potential.
On TSLA, sure. I am as well - I'm merely speaking of near-term macro possibilities. IMO, while there's permabear BS constantly circulating that must be filtered through ("it's {1987|2000|2008} all over again!"), as someone who plays with weekly options far too much for my own good, it's best to be aware of things that could sneak up and wipe out 90% of a position overnight.
Usually I try to go home flat every day, (Adam Jonas' last downgrade really reinforced that...) but days like today with impressive strength into close & supportive accumulators mean I'm holding 5-10 ATM and/or 10-20 OTM calls overnight. (in today's case, 5 $375c & 10 $380c)
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