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2020 Shipping Movements

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GRAND VENUS is continuing to make excellent time. She has just 1059nm to go and is doing 17.7 kts. She could make Zeebrugge by Wednesday afternoon at this rate.

GV Atlantic Progress.png
 
I've been pondering...
How did SILVER RAY's cargo cross the USA without being reported?
The idea that they went by road just doesn't wash. Thousands of cars, some RHD, being transported by road would have been spotted and reported on.
So that means they went by rail, probably in wagons like this:
image.png


Newark has a convenient railhead at Oak Island which is used for new car transportation. Transporting by rail in the US is not fast. It's also not something that can be quickly organised - this had a long lead time.
I think that this shipment may be the shipment that was originally provisionally earmarked for the GLOVIS STELLA. I had been made aware that the GLOVIS STELLA had been cancelled for several days before it became obvious. It would also explain why we were all surprised when the GLOVIS COMPOSER didn't come to EU - I was certainly aware of high production levels beforehand of EU vehicles. So I think this shipment must have left Fremont in the 1st week of reopening around May 11. This coincides with the sighting of an EU spec car leaving Fremont by transporter. Where were they loaded? Oakland Intermodal is primarily a container facility as far as I am aware. I am aware that there is a railway yard immediately behind the Fremont factory but I'm not aware of any loading facilities there either.
Benicia springs to mind as the closest.

So 5 days to load the train takes us to May 16. 12 days in transit takes us to May 28. That leaves a week to unload and wait for the ship to arrive on 4 Jun. Timing fits...

Anybody have any better ideas?
 
The first interesting development so far today is the non-appearance of GRAND VENUS on the Southampton arrivals board for Saturday.
The Southampton VTS arrivals board is very reliable and is constantly updated.
So, either GRAND VENUS isn't departing Zeebrugge on the 19th or she isn't coming to Southampton.
(I was actually given a date of 23rd for the next shipment arriving in Southampton from a new source last month. That date has looked wrong to me for the last 2 weeks and with SILVER RAY entering the equation, I think I should ignore it completely.)

The next development I'm hoping for today is confirmation that SILVER RAY is carrying Teslas. I am sure @MGrove has his source on the docks at Zeebrugge on the case and it would be good to know for sure. Otherwise I can see me making the trip to Southampton docks tomorrow to check.
Zeebrugge source reports, as of this morning, that he has not observed Tesla cars from Silver Ray.
 
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So 5 days to load the train takes us to May 16. 12 days in transit takes us to May 28. That leaves a week to unload and wait for the ship to arrive on 4 Jun. Timing fits...

Anybody have any better ideas?

So if these dates work for SILVER RAY, it means that VINs in the range similar to mine, from Tesla-Info, are more likely to be on the GRAND VENUS?

Another way to look at it, when do you think the latest arrival for GRAND VENUS at Southampton could be, to allow unloading and road transport for collection on Tuesday next week? Surely the Monday would be too tight?
upload_2020-6-15_12-57-4-png.551660
 
It still looks as though SILVER RAY will depart Zeebrugge tonight. Although her AIS ETA is 06:00 tomorrow the Southampton VTS is still showing an arrival on Wednesday afternoon. As far as I can workout Pier 104 will be free and unoccupied tomorrow and so there may be the opportunity to dock tomorrow.
We shall see....
 
So if these dates work for SILVER RAY, it means that VINs in the range similar to mine, from Tesla-Info, are more likely to be on the GRAND VENUS?

Another way to look at it, when do you think the latest arrival for GRAND VENUS at Southampton could be, to allow unloading and road transport for collection on Tuesday next week? Surely the Monday would be too tight?
upload_2020-6-15_12-57-4-png.551660

Still no details yet on GRAND VENUS coming to Southampton. It could be on Sunday 21st - we shall find out in a few hours when the Southampton arrivals are updated.

Tesla UK have been very good (not necessarily from a buyers point of view) at delivering shiploads of cars at the end of a quarter - with the obvious exception of last quarter which had a COVID-19 shaped spanner thrown in. I also reckon some of the delivery subcontractors will be anxious to demonstrate their capability this time round. I cannot believe that Tesla was satisfied with their Q1 performance, COVID or no COVID.
 
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So if these dates work for SILVER RAY, it means that VINs in the range similar to mine, from Tesla-Info, are more likely to be on the GRAND VENUS?

Another way to look at it, when do you think the latest arrival for GRAND VENUS at Southampton could be, to allow unloading and road transport for collection on Tuesday next week? Surely the Monday would be too tight?
upload_2020-6-15_12-57-4-png.551660
What page is this tool from?
 
SILVER RAY is on its way to Southampton with a new ETA of 13:00 tomorrow. No change on the Southampton VTS arrivals board for it though - still showing Wednesday afternoon.

Importantly, no sign of GRAND VENUS arriving at Southampton on Sunday 21st either. It's leading me to believe that all the UK cars must be on the SILVER RAY.....

UPDATE
It's been pointed out to me that if you zoom in on the photo from post #3756 the car is RHD. That's pretty conclusive to me - SILVER RAY has the UK shipment.