It's still very likely.
It's just that my ship predictions are covered in red pen at the moment.
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2020 Shipping Movements
- Thread starter Mr Miserable
- Start date
It's just that my ship predictions are covered in red pen at the moment.
Yup. VedaPrime has been a reliable source over on Twitter for while now, so it's nice to see him here.
JupiterMan
Active Member
Boats to UK/Ireland tend to go to Zeebrugge first, so you should get lots of useful info on EU ships here courtesy of our resident shipping experts!
Speaking of which....
Mr M : I'm sure you're on it already - Glovis Sonic is arriving at Hueneme in California tomorrow (not far from SFO).. was on your list... possible first ship?
I am just emerging from the depression caused by the GRAND PIONEER debacle having been cheered by the performance of my Tesla shares yesterday.
I tipped GRAND PIONEER to be the 1st Tesla ship for Q3 many months ago based on a schedule I found. It was scheduled to route to Benicia via San Diego. It was running exactly to that schedule for weeks right up to the moment it left the Panama Canal and started to race towards San Diego. I commented a couple of days ago that it appeared to be running well ahead of schedule. That should have rung a louder alarm bell because it was an indication that the ship had been re-routed. Lesson learnt.
So we are a week away from the 1st ship of Q3 arriving according to the San Francisco Port schedule. This is not always a reliable source especially when placeholders are involved however it seems to be reasonably accurate at the moment, since I have it on good authority that preparations are being made on Pier 80 to receive the oil tanker STENA SUNRISE late tonight.
Looking at my revised short list of possibles there are a couple of vessels within striking distance that could be the 1st ship of Q3 - GLOVIS SONIC and GLOVIS COMPOSER. The GLOVIS SONIC is almost too close but both ships could still route to Pier 80 via Benicia if necessary.
The remaining Q3 ships on my watch list are:
GLOVIS STELLA
MORNING CORNELIA
GLOVIS CHAMPION
GLOVIS COUNTESS
GLOVIS SUN
GRAND DAHLIA
GLOVIS SUNRISE
I will do a search tomorrow to see if any other ships can be added to this list.
I am also asking for an eye to kept on activity at the Milpitas railway yards over the next couple of days in case a fast transit shipment via the east coast is made. If a bumper Q3 is planned this would be one method to kickstart it early (and might explain GRAND PIONEER's rerouting too)
We shall see...
I tipped GRAND PIONEER to be the 1st Tesla ship for Q3 many months ago based on a schedule I found. It was scheduled to route to Benicia via San Diego. It was running exactly to that schedule for weeks right up to the moment it left the Panama Canal and started to race towards San Diego. I commented a couple of days ago that it appeared to be running well ahead of schedule. That should have rung a louder alarm bell because it was an indication that the ship had been re-routed. Lesson learnt.
So we are a week away from the 1st ship of Q3 arriving according to the San Francisco Port schedule. This is not always a reliable source especially when placeholders are involved however it seems to be reasonably accurate at the moment, since I have it on good authority that preparations are being made on Pier 80 to receive the oil tanker STENA SUNRISE late tonight.
Looking at my revised short list of possibles there are a couple of vessels within striking distance that could be the 1st ship of Q3 - GLOVIS SONIC and GLOVIS COMPOSER. The GLOVIS SONIC is almost too close but both ships could still route to Pier 80 via Benicia if necessary.
The remaining Q3 ships on my watch list are:
GLOVIS STELLA
MORNING CORNELIA
GLOVIS CHAMPION
GLOVIS COUNTESS
GLOVIS SUN
GRAND DAHLIA
GLOVIS SUNRISE
I will do a search tomorrow to see if any other ships can be added to this list.
I am also asking for an eye to kept on activity at the Milpitas railway yards over the next couple of days in case a fast transit shipment via the east coast is made. If a bumper Q3 is planned this would be one method to kickstart it early (and might explain GRAND PIONEER's rerouting too)
We shall see...
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JupiterMan
Active Member
X & S deliveries go a different route to those of the Model 3... M3 ships should (in theory) leave next week, and be in EU beginning of August.
We need @Vedaprime to comment on this. He's the undisputed expert as far as S/X shipments are concerned.
JupiterMan
Active Member
According to the port schedule it's just using Pier 80 as a layberth - it's not loading or unloading.
Importantly, however it's not due to leave until next Monday.
The S/X have quite a journey. They will go by rail to Houston. This takes a number of days, then move to a container ship to Rotterdam and then moved throughout Europe plus prep time. I will know in a couple of weeks what ships they will be is my guess. It will likely be more than one ship if we are back to normal volumes. I can track the cars by vin to Rotterdam once the data appears midway across the Atlantic and know the container movements from Fremont to port exit.
I do expect the European production to start now, with deliveries either late August and well into September.
Watch for a hidden vin in your Tesla account and this will be the first clue you have been assigned a car.
Hi @Vedaprime - My order is through my work and then through a company - do you know if the hidden vin trick works for that scenario? Ive ordered a model 3 though rather than an X or S.
GLOVIS SONIC is heading for Benicia and should arrive tomorrow evening (Friday). No details of her next move yet .....
JupiterMan
Active Member
Lets hope she still leaves Pier 80 on time and does not block it for the important ships!
I have been asked where Benicia is.
I have annotated the aerial view of the San Francisco Bay area with a couple of locations that are interest.
Benicia - A dock used to import vehicles into the USA. It is of interest to us because it is often the last location a ship will use prior to loading at Pier 80.
Pier 80 - The pier Tesla primarily use to export their vehicles by Roll on - Roll off car carriers.
Tesla Fremont. The factory where the cars are manufactured. Cars are moved to Pier 80 from the factory by road using car transporters.
Golden Gate Bridge. A famous landmark.
I have annotated the aerial view of the San Francisco Bay area with a couple of locations that are interest.
Benicia - A dock used to import vehicles into the USA. It is of interest to us because it is often the last location a ship will use prior to loading at Pier 80.
Pier 80 - The pier Tesla primarily use to export their vehicles by Roll on - Roll off car carriers.
Tesla Fremont. The factory where the cars are manufactured. Cars are moved to Pier 80 from the factory by road using car transporters.
Golden Gate Bridge. A famous landmark.
The hidden vin Is accessible in the ‘my manage’ page of the Tesla account of the order. I have instructions at Vedaprime.net.au on how to do that.
Having said that, Model 3 goes by RoRo (Roll on Roll off off) out of San Francisco to Europe and not traceable by vin like the container ships. I can’t track Model 3 to Europe, only S/X
vin science alone for RoRo can’t tell us exactly which ship. There are gaps in the numbers used and not always sequential within a Vin range.
Thanks @Vedaprime - I don’t actually have the ‘my manage’ option when I log in but I suspect that this is due to me ordering through a lease company...
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