2020 Shipping Movements

[Andre1972]

In the german TFF forum are lots of long ranges assigned to a vin but not one Performance. Is there any Chance that on the Antwerp are Performances which are not assigned to a vin yet?

 

[Mr Miserable]

RCC ANTWERP continues her dash towards the Mona passage
At midday Z her position was N12.7 W75.6 and she was maintaining about 19 kts about 130nm north of Cartagena
Looking at the weather, she should be able to maintain high speed until later tonight when she will be forced to slow.
Nevertheless, it was a good strategy and she will avoid the worst of the storm.
ETA Zeebrugge 10 Nov and Southampton 13 Nov

TRITON ACE She is is making excellent progress down the Pacific coast.
At midday Z her position was N31.6 W120.3 which is about 170nm SW of San Diego
Since leaving Pier 80 yesterday she has covered 388nm at an average speed of 16.2kts.
She is on schedule to arrive off Panama next Saturday evening.
She will arrive in Zeebrugge on 20 Nov and Southampton on 22 Nov

GRAND AURORA continues to load at Pier 80. I’m not yet sure when she will depart but I reckon it will be Tuesday.
I estimate she will arrive in Zeebrugge around 24 Nov Southampton possibly 27 Nov

The next ship to load is due in on 7 Nov. I reckon it may be RCC AMSTERDAM but there are many others eg HEROIC ACE or ASIAN GLORY that could fill that slot. I haven’t fathomed out a destination for this ship yet.

The one after that should be GLOVIS CRYSTAL that should arrive in Zeebrugge around 7 Dec

There is time for at least one more departure to Europe after that……


TOSCANA is still not showing on any of the ship tracking websites even with satellite access. I suspect we will not get an update from her now until she comes into range of the land-based receivers near Singapore, in which case sometime tomorrow is possible.
She will arrive in Zeebrugge on 27 Nov

I just hope the handlers in Zeebrugge are prepared to handle this deluge of cars at the end of the month. It’s going to require fantastic organisation and coordination to get this amount of cars off the dock and on their way to the various nations in a timely fashion. Yes, other manufacturers deliver large quantities of cars every month but look at the docks and disused airfields that are stockpiled with them and provide reservoirs to smooth the logistic flow. Tesla are not in the business of storing cars. Of course with the COVID-19 situation worsening globally it could all go terribly wrong…

 

[LongRanger]

With uk-wide impending lockdown - which other manufacturers have their next quarter’s production quota pretty much sold ?

Not a good time for the car industry at all - could be some big shocks in early/mid 2021 ....

Relevance to the Zeebrugge congestion - am assuming if cars have customers then it’s in Tesla’s interests to get all the units prioritised ahead of vehicles going to storage compounds.

 

[Mr Miserable]

With TRITON ACE on her way to Europe it must be competition time!
All you have to do is use your skill and judgement to decide which gridsquare TRITON ACE will be in at Midday Z on 14 Nov 20.
It's free to enter and there is no fabulous prize for the winner - it's just a bit of fun!
Only 1 entry per person.
The competition will close for new entries when TRITON ACE enters the Panama Canal.
In the event of a tie, the person who chose the winning gridsquare first will be the winner - so enter early!

Enter here

 

[Mr Miserable]

Knowing my luck, mine is the one that will break loose. Does it happen often and has it happened to any expectant Tesla owner’s on here?
Atlantic forecast looks rough, very likely to encounter swells in excess of 6 meters.

You raise an interesting subject - waves and swells.
The science of forecasting wave heights is a complex one and is becoming more complex as more is learned about their formation and characteristics.
In short, waves are caused by wind, however there are a number of factors which determine their height and, equally important, their frequency. Wind speed is clearly a factor and essentially it is the wind strength relative to the existing wave speed. Additionally the width and length of the fetch ie how big an area over which the wind blows in a single direction, are big factors coupled with the depth of the water.

All these factors affect the characteristics of a wave:

1. Wave height which is measured from the crest to the trough.
2. Wave length which is measured from crest to crest.
3. Wave frequency which is the time interval between crests over a single point.

All this makes perfect sense when you think about it - you can’t get 50ft waves in Coniston Water but you can see them in the Atlantic.
Studying wave behaviour gave rise to the Beaufort Scale where the windspeed at sea could be pretty accurately estimated from wave behaviour.
The trouble is that waves carry an enormous amount of energy and they can travel great distances.
That is when they become a swell - they travel so far they bear no relation to the local wind conditions. You may have a wonderful calm day in Cornwall but the beaches are being pounded by big Atlantic rollers - the swell created some time ago by a storm many miles away. (A Tsunami however is not a swell)

You can have the swell travelling in one direction (generally smooth topped waves) and wind waves (peaked) travelling in another.
A cape can cause treacherously confused sea conditions as differing swells collide at different angles from the prevailing wind waves.
Only recently have scientists admitted to the existence of rogue waves, where waves combine to produce monster waves which have long been known about by mariners. For years, scientists relied on a recognised formula to compute the size of waves and there is a maximum wave size in this formula which many mariners argued was too small compared to the reality.
It’s very difficult for a simple mariner to argue against a boffin with a slide rule. I have personal knowledge of this when giving evidence as to the size of waves one stormy night many years ago when a man was lost overboard from a nearby vessel. My evidence (and those of others in the same area of the Baltic at the time) was described as an exaggeration by a university professor. I described it as a short sea (waves coming at a high frequency) interspersed with bigger waves at a much lower frequency (a swell). If they combined (perhaps once an hour) you got a monster wave that would break over the vessel easily washing someone outside on a deck overboard. Anyway, I digress…

Forecasting wave heights has improved as they are now measured by satellite and computer models can be quickly adjusted to reflect actual conditions however, I don’t think the forecasting of swells per se has improved to the same degree.

We have all seen waves get larger as they approach a shore and so measurement of wave height can get complicated.
Just this week a Briton has applied to Guinness World Records for the title for the largest wave surfed, a monster over 80’ high off Portugal. This will probably come down to how the height of the wave is measured. For surfing, one method involves standing on the beach looking out to sea and another method takes an opposite view looking towards the beach from the sea. The large difference between the two methods is the trough size which is larger on the advancing side as the wave approaches the shore.

 

[ajs117]

Every day’s a school day.

One wave it isn’t going to miss is the second wave of COVID, guessing deliveries will be delayed.

 

[512uk]

The trouble is that waves carry an enormous amount of energy

Sounds like a great renewable power source

 

[Mr Miserable]

Sounds like a great renewable power source

Actually it's proven to be fraught with difficulty both technically and ecology wise. I think the UK was pioneering this technology a decade ago but it came to nothing as cheaper, greener and easier alternatives were developed.

 

[Whoflungdung]

There was a project in Cornwall called the Wavehub Project which became https://www.wavehub.co.uk/ and is generating still, it had a long and fraught history with many issues and failures. It’s was referred to as a white elephant for many years but it provides a claimed 40mw capability but with off shore wind so much easier to install and harvest it is expensive in comparison.

 

[Tiger]

There was a project in Cornwall called the Wavehub Project which became https://www.wavehub.co.uk/ and is generating still, it had a long and fraught history with many issues and failures. It’s was referred to as a white elephant for many years but it provides a claimed 40mw capability but with off shore wind so much easier to install and harvest it is expensive in comparison.

If the wind is creating the waves then yes, it would make sense, to harness wind power, in this instance the primary source of power.

 

[NewbieT]

They’re still trying to start tidal generation in Wales: Morlais | Anglesey Marine Energy

 

[Mr Miserable]

RCC ANTWERP continues to make good speed towards the Mona passage
At midday Z her position was N17.1 W69.3 and she was about 100nm SW of the Mona passage.
ETA Zeebrugge 10 Nov and Southampton 13 Nov

TRITON ACE continues to make excellent progress 55nm off the Pacific coast.
At midday Z her position was N26.6 W115.2 which is about halfway down the Baja California peninsula
Since leaving Pier 80 she has covered 768nm at an average speed of 16 kts.
She is on schedule to arrive off Panama next Saturday evening.
She will arrive in Zeebrugge on 20 Nov and Southampton on 22 Nov

Don’t forget to enter the TRITON ACE competition - Enter HERE

GRAND AURORA continues to load at Pier 80. I’m not yet sure when she will depart but I reckon it will be Tuesday.
I estimate she will arrive in Zeebrugge around 24 Nov Southampton possibly on 27 Nov

TOSCANA is still not showing on any of the ship tracking websites even with satellite access. I suspect we will not get an update from her now until she comes into range of the land-based receivers near Singapore, possibly later today.
She will arrive in Zeebrugge on 27 Nov

TANNHAUSER is due to arrive in Shanghai tomorrow to commence loading the 2nd batch of MIC Model 3s for Europe. She is not due to depart until Friday.

 

[RubberToe]

A couple assumptions underlie the weekly shipping of large numbers of vehicles from U.S. and now China to Europe. As Mr. Miserable has pointed out, the logistics of unloading will be challenged given the volume arriving. Can someone with knowledge of what a "lockdown" in England or possibly Belgium is describe at a high level what that implies for 10 or so arriving ships? For example, where if anywhere does the entire delivery chain actually get interrupted, and what are the consequences upstream of that. Will there be a dozen ships anchored off the ports full of Tesla's or other cars unable to dock and unload? Or are we simply in uncharted territory now?

RT

 

[Morriscoombes]

Logistics carried on last time?

 

[Sugei]

Logistics carried on last time?

Indeed it did

 

[Terranca]

Not sure what the measures are in England, but for Belgium I believe the rule is "working from home is mandory, unless that is not possible". Clearly, unloading boats is impossible from home, so it would continue as usual. The Port of Zeebrugge did report around 10% of employees being home due to illness resulting in minor delays in offloading etc.

Hopefully the "lockdown" / restrictive measures have effect, then it would actually speed up the process

 

[Mr Miserable]

RCC ANTWERP is about to enter the Mona Passage which is the gap between the Dominican Republic to the west and Puerto Rico to the east.
On the Atlantic side lies the Puerto Rico Trench which is about 8000m deep whereas in the channel it's only about 100m deep.
On the Caribbean side it's about 1000m deep. Additionally, there is a significant current that runs from south to north.
This 'shallowness' in the channel can be responsible for some pretty treacherous seas with some horrendously big waves.
It's not something that is too much of a concern for big ships but for smaller vessels the 'dreaded' Mona Passage has a fearsome reputation and navigating it is something that needs careful advanced planning and respect.
It is also the site of a significant British victory in 1782 when British and French warships engaged there.

 

[Terranca]

Love these facts on the journey of Antwerp. Was hoping to get some entertaining facts on Toscana's route while waiting on her... so disappointed in her lack of sattelite tracking hope she stays well clear of hurricane Goni.

 

[Mr Miserable]

A couple assumptions underlie the weekly shipping of large numbers of vehicles from U.S. and now China to Europe. As Mr. Miserable has pointed out, the logistics of unloading will be challenged given the volume arriving. Can someone with knowledge of what a "lockdown" in England or possibly Belgium is describe at a high level what that implies for 10 or so arriving ships? For example, where if anywhere does the entire delivery chain actually get interrupted, and what are the consequences upstream of that. Will there be a dozen ships anchored off the ports full of Tesla's or other cars unable to dock and unload? Or are we simply in uncharted territory now?

RT

I think the dock workers are regarded as essential so they should be able to continue to work. I don't think deliveries will happen though. Getting the cars get off the dockside could be a problem in Southampton - there isn't much room and I'm not sure a car transporter is regarded as an essential business.

 

[Mr Miserable]

Love these facts on the journey of Antwerp. Was hoping to get some entertaining facts on Toscana's route while waiting on her... so disappointed in her lack of sattelite tracking hope she stays well clear of hurricane Goni.

Typhoon Goni killed 10 people in the Philippines and it is strengthening and heading for Vietnam. I'm pretty sure TOSCANA will be clear to the south - there was plenty of warning and so she had time to get clear.
There is another potential storm developing which may affect TANNHAUSER as she heads past Taiwan next weekend. It's early days but I'm keeping an eye on Tropical Depression Atsani.

In the Caribbean Tropical Storm Eta continues to develop and looks like it will soon become a hurricane. RCC ANTWERP wisely decided against the Windward Passage option and as a result is well clear. TRITON ACE will need to keep an eye on the hurricane's track in case it successfully crosses Nicaragua into the Pacific.