2020 Shipping Movements

[Mr Miserable]

GRAND AURORA departed Amsterdam last night and is currently in the English Channel passing 10nm south of Beachy Head.
She is due to finally arrive in Southampton later this evening.

GLOVIS CRYSTAL remains loitering Mid-Atlantic.
Her current scheduled ETA for Zeebrugge is 8 Dec.
I’m not sure whether she will come to Southampton or not.
With 2 ships in Zeebrugge at the same time there is an opportunity to cross-load on to one ship.
So I would expect either GLOVIS CRYSTAL or RCC AMSTERDAM to come to Southampton around 11 Dec at the earliest..

TANNHAUSER is heading north along the coast of Portugal and is presently 50nm SW of Porto.
It looks as though she will cross the Bay of Biscay before the worst of the weather arrives.
She is on track to arrive in Zeebrugge on late Friday night/early Saturday morning.

RCC AMSTERDAM continues to race towards Zeebrugge at over 18kts 550nm NE of Bermuda.
She still remains ahead of schedule but I don’t think she will be able to maintain top speed for much longer because of some weather ahead but because she has built up such a buffer she will not be late arriving.
She is still over 1000nm SW of GLOVIS CRYSTAL.
ETA 8 Dec for Zeebrugge

Standby for the result of the RCC AMSTERDAM competition!

GLOVIS SUN She is presently maintaining 15kts off the south coast of Costa Rica and on schedule to arrive off Balboa later today.
I expect her to transit the Panama Canal tomorrow and I will post some more details on the canal transit later today, suffice to say she is too big for the old locks and will have to use the new ones.
I estimate she should arrive in Zeebrugge around 15 Dec however we may see her follow RCC AMSTERDAM’s example by engaging ludicrous mode across the Atlantic.

The GLOVIS SUN competition will close as soon as she enters the Panama Canal.

LYDDEN is running late. She is now due to arrive in Newark late on Friday and won’t start loading until Saturday.
I now estimate she will arrive in Zeebrugge around 15 Dec. This will roughly coincide with the arrival of GLOVIS SUN.
Two big ships in Zeebrugge at the same time - what could possibly go wrong with that?

Enter the LYDDEN competition because your guess is as good as anybody's!

 

[Mr Miserable]

RCC AMSTERDAM Competition Result

We didn't have a direct hit in this competition because clearly many entrants expected RCC AMSTERDAM to take the Mona Passage route into the Atlantic and weren't expecting her to transit at such high speed. The bulk of entries were to the S & SE of her actual position.
The winning square is M10 and the closest chosen square was M11.
Congratulations go to @Jaap-Jan who will be relieved to learn that he won't be receiving a caravan for his efforts!

 

[Jaap-Jan]

RCC AMSTERDAM Competition Result

We didn't have a direct hit in this competition because clearly many entrants expected RCC AMSTERDAM to take the Mona Passage route into the Atlantic and weren't expecting her to transit at such high speed. The bulk of entries were to the S & SE of her actual position.
The winning square is M10 and the closest chosen square was M11.
Congratulations go to @Jaap-Jan who will be relieved to learn that he won't be receiving a caravan for his efforts!

Nice! Thank god I don't get a caravan, because both my current and next car don't have a tow hitch.

 

[Mr Miserable]

GRAND AURORA now has a Southampton port pilot onboard.

 

[Mr Miserable]

As SILVER SUN prepares to depart, GRAND AURORA is inching up the Solent

 

[Spikeyspud]

As SILVER SUN prepares to depart, GRAND AURORA is inching up the Solent

View attachment 613722

Really excited to think my M3 LR is in the Aurora and will shortly be in the same country as me.

 

[StevehConwy]

Well, the NORWEGIAN ENCORE has moved back, but is facing out to sea still.
GRAND AURORA should be passing in the next minutes...

Norwegian Encore Webcams - Norwegian Encore Bridge Webcam / Camera - Norwegian Cruise Line

 

[ginger biker]

@Mr Miserable are we likely to see Glovis Crystal hanging about where she is for some time yet? Quick and dirty maths would suggest she’s approx 1500miles from Zeebrugge - so even a relatively relaxed cruise at 15kt would get her to Zeebrugge by Sunday afternoon. Any thoughts?

 

[Mr Miserable]

@Mr Miserable are we likely to see Glovis Crystal hanging about where she is for some time yet? Quick and dirty maths would suggest she’s approx 1500miles from Zeebrugge - so even a relatively relaxed cruise at 15kt would get her to Zeebrugge by Sunday afternoon. Any thoughts?

Yes here

 

[OttoR]

Yes here

Amy chance they will do a little dance. And put cars for UK on one ship and cars for Amsterdam / Drammen /... on the other ship?

Can these RoRo's connect to each other with the side ramp, so they would effectively only need one docking pier?

 

[Mr Miserable]

GLOVIS SUN is presently sailing up the Gulf of Panama and will anchor up this evening just off the entrance to the canal.
She will have paid a fee to jump the queue and so I am pretty confident she will transit the canal tomorrow.
In the wee small hours of tomorrow morning a canal pilot will board the ship and she will then head up towards the first set of locks, the Cocoli locks. These modern locks which opened in June 2016 will lift the ship 85ft in 3 stages. The ship will now be level with Gatun lake and she can make her way to the final set of locks, the Agua Clara locks which will lower the ship 85ft to the Caribbean in 3 stages.

The Panama Canal provides a shortcut for shipping travelling from the Pacific Ocean to the Atlantic Ocean and vice-versa. Instead of having to route to the south of South America and then back up, a distance of about 10,000 nm the canal offers a mere 50 mile transit. This comes at a big (well into 6 figures) price, calculated by a complicated formula, designed to maximise revenue to the canal operators. The original canal opened in 1914 and was an immediate success. In the first year it handled about 1000 ships and by 2008 it was handling nearly 15,000. These figures alone don’t tell the whole story because ships were getting bigger and bigger and one of the limits to the size of ships being built was the size of the locks in the Panama Canal. Ships that were built to fit (just) into the locks were described as Panamax ships. That is why so many cruise ships, container ships and car carriers are 32.3m wide and have a draft of under 12.6m.

The expansion of global trade and the increase in shipping meant that the canal was becoming a bottleneck with frequent delays and queues of ships waiting to transit. Fees for queue jumping became ever more expensive and ever more necessary to avoid delays. Alternatives to the canal were seriously being considered eg the NW passage and a number of alternative canal routes that avoided Panama completely. Panama relies on the income from the canal and could not afford for any of the alternatives plans to be viable and so the plan for the expansion to the existing canal system was commenced in 2007 and completed in 2016. This introduced two new sets of locks built parallel to the existing locks. Significantly, they now allow ships up to 366m long, 49m wide and with a draft of up to 15m to transit the canal. The new locks are of a modern design which use less water and are regarded as safer and more reliable too.

So a Panamax ship like RCC AMSTERDAM will use the old locks - Miraflores, Pedro Miguel and Gatun locks to transit whereas bigger ships like GLOVIS SUN have to use the new locks at Cocoli and Agua Clara.

The canal is big business and so is generally a pretty slick operation entirely dependent on how much you have paid. The Tesla ships are normally booked in several weeks in advance and are given a pretty high priority. Delays of more than 24 hours are rare and normally we can expect the ships to start their northbound transit in the small hours of the morning and be in the Caribbean around 8 hours later.

There are webcams at the locks so you can watch the ships going through. The link to the webcams is here

For GLOVIS SUN, I expect her to be at Cocoli around 6 am UK time tomorrow. By the time she reaches Agua Clara locks it will be daylight. I expect her to be in the Caribbean shortly after 3pm UK time.

Thanks to @Mister J for providing the above graphic.

 

[Mr Miserable]

Amy chance they will do a little dance. And put cars for UK on one ship and cars for Amsterdam / Drammen /... on the other ship?

Can these RoRo's connect to each other with the side ramp, so they would effectively only need one docking pier?

I expect that they will take the opportunity to crossload in Zeebrugge and only one ship from GLOVIS CRYSTAL/RCC AMSTERDAM and GLOVIS SUN/LYDDEN pairs will come to Southampton.
My money would be on the GLOVIS CRYSTAL and LYDDEN charters actually being terminated in Zeebrugge, although there would be a real benefit in them continuing on to Amsterdam or Drammen, Norway since it must be the fastest means available to deliver the large quantity of cars involved.
GLOVIS CRYSTAL is due in Bremerhaven on 11 Dec on non-Tesla work and so I think the window of opportunity for her to do this is too small.

The ships can't link to each other.

 

[biddled]

I expect that they will take the opportunity to crossload in Zeebrugge and only one ship from GLOVIS CRYSTAL/RCC AMSTERDAM and GLOVIS SUN/LYDDEN pairs will come to Southampton.
My money would be on the GLOVIS CRYSTAL and LYDDEN charters actually being terminated in Zeebrugge, although there would be a real benefit in them continuing on to Amsterdam or Drammen, Norway since it must be the fastest means available to deliver the large quantity of cars involved.
GLOVIS CRYSTAL is due in Bremerhaven on 11 Dec on non-Tesla work and so I think the window of opportunity for her to do this is too small.

The ships can't link to each other.

This thread has been a very interesting read, looking forward to receiving my M3LR in White (No options).
I've been informed that I'm on the RCC Amsterdam, but have had no txts or delivery dates yet.

It does look like the RCC Amsterdam will actually overtake the Gloves Crystal to Zeebrugge to arrive early on the 8th Dec (according to the Port of Zeebrugge Arrivals). Both departing at the same time on the 10th reinforces the theory that they won't both head to Southampton.

 

[RRRay]

This thread has been a very interesting read, looking forward to receiving my M3LR in White (No options).
I've been informed that I'm on the RCC Amsterdam, but have had no txts or delivery dates yet.

It does look like the RCC Amsterdam will actually overtake the Gloves Crystal to Zeebrugge to arrive early on the 8th Dec (according to the Port of Zeebrugge Arrivals). Both departing at the same time on the 10th reinforces the theory that they won't both head to Southampton.

The Tannhauser likely will have SR+ for many markets. With ETA at Dec 5th I expect they’re thinking of how to swap the cars in Zeebrugge before going to different ports. Interesting to see how they manage that.

 

[Mr Miserable]

Scheduling traffic through the Panama Canal efficiently as possible has always been a challenge.
Numerous university studies have been conducted on the problem and they provided a basis for several computer progammes to be devised over the years - none of which seemed to improve on the man with a board and a chinagraph pencil. The locks were routinely operated with two way traffic with the locks on the western side accomodating the south to north traffic and the eastern side of the locks the north to south traffic.
The problem became more complex with the addition of the new locks which can only accept one-way traffic and the introduction of very wide ships to the canal which is, in parts, too narrow to allow them to pass each other safely.
So now there is a one-way wave system which starts in the early hours of the morning with the northbound wave.
There are only so many slots available, the number of which vary daily depending on the size of the ships that have booked ahead.
It is absolutely imperative for ships to arrive in time if they have a transit booked - missing a booked slot carries a big financial penalty and requires rebooking which will often come with a delay of a week or so. You can just pitch up and join a queue to wait for a free slot however you must be prepared to wait several weeks or you can bid for available slots in a daily auction.
The canal operators have a 'frequent flyer' scheme which gives priority and discounts to their best customers depending on how much they spend over a year. At the end of the day the canal is run as a business and you have a choice - use the canal at a price or spend weeks and hundreds of tons of fuel avoiding the canal. The income from the canal represents a substantial percentage of the annual Panamanian GDP of $120billion.

 

[Mr Miserable]

The Tannhauser likely will have SR+ for many markets. With ETA at Dec 5th I expect they’re thinking of how to swap the cars in Zeebrugge before going to different ports. Interesting to see how they manage that.

Only LHD SR+ on the TANNHAUSER I believe.
To be absolutely honest, it is an assumption that the TANNHAUSER will be carrying Teslas. Since the Chinese drone ban I have not seen any videos of a 2nd shipment of Teslas to the EU. Her parking space in Zeebrugge may give a clue but has yet to be allocated. I look forward to receiving confirmation that she was actually carrying Teslas after she docks.

 

[Mr Miserable]

LYDDEN has finally left Philly enroute to Newark.
She is now due to start loading Teslas on Saturday morning.

 

[RRRay]

Only LHD SR+ on the TANNHAUSER I believe.
To be absolutely honest, it is an assumption that the TANNHAUSER will be carrying Teslas. Since the Chinese drone ban I have not seen any videos of a 2nd shipment of Teslas to the EU. Her parking space in Zeebrugge may give a clue but has yet to be allocated. I look forward to receiving confirmation that she was actually carrying Teslas after she docks.

This video includes reference of second shipment arriving early December. Some customers already heard their LHD car is on the Tannhauser. I’ve not seen confirmation for RHD indeed.

 

[MGrove]

Good Morning. Glovis Sun is in Cocoli Locks now.

 

[StevehConwy]

GRAND AURORA is now sitting at dock in Southampton and offloading its shipment, including mine (I believe).
I'd just like to say a last, huge thank you to @Mr Miserable for his excellent daily updates and informative commentary - it's been an exciting ride!
Also to the others who added additional nuance and little tips here and there. You know who you are.