Over in Shanghai it is now Q4! Happy Q4!
So far, there is nothing to report with no sign of any shipments to UK/EU.
MORNING CHERRY is about to depart to Australia from the main Haitong terminal and hopefully we will soon discover whether she is carrying some Teslas.
My suspicion that the Chinese market may be currently saturated appears to be being echoed by financial analysts in the US whose dire predictions caused the Tesla share price to tumble yesterday. I don't think the situation is at all dire (the recovery seen so far today would echo that) and that delivery expectations for Q3 by the markets will have been met and probably well exceeded, it's just that Tesla probably deluged the Chinese market this month. A decision to switch production to other markets was probably made last week. There is certainly pent-up demand for M3 in the UK and EU, and probably in Australia as well.
The current Troy Teslike forecast for Q4 of 160K MY for China may turn out to be somewhat unrealistic figure and whilst the GF has the flexibility to switch production easily I am not so confident Tesla can find the ships to export the additional production quite so easily. There are indications that apart from significant shipments from new Chinese manufacturers (BYD, NIO, XPENG etc) the traditional manufacturers are ramping up following their 'chip shortage' woes. Whilst we are still seeing ships returning to the Far East from the EU empty, such is the high demand in the Far East it is making the non-revenue earning positioning voyage viable. Although Tesla may not want to enter the shipping business, the days of cheap shipping are over and if it is to avoid being held to ransom by the astute shipping companies some radical solutions may need to be investigated if Tesla want to keep a lid on costs. Tesla's vertical integration may need to be extended, and they have the cash.
I was expecting about 9 ships to UK/EU in Q4 but this may increase if Tesla can find the ships. We may also see an increase in the use of scheduled services too. These can be harder to spot (except shipments using Hoegh vessels) and certainly more difficult to quantify the size of each shipment.
Clearly a lot depends on whether Berlin will be able to step up to the mark. Although we are seeing increased production from Berlin, exports to Taiwan (!) would suggest there is a limit to the EU market's appetite for black and white cars. Clearly Berlin continues to be a problem child and I hope it's troubles are addressed in Q4. I would hope to see some MY from Berlin be supplied to the UK in Q4, even if they are only black or white. I don't think I will be able to spot any MIG shipments to the UK since Bremerhaven to Southampton is a regularly served route - I'll try though!
It's a sitch. Transparent in terms of car piece, but it's a change.
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