2170s for the Model S soon [Speculation]

[mongo]

Thanks! you should tweet this to Elon! He may respond with a coming soon in time!. Altho we know his time is not relative to what we call time.

Thanks for the thanks, and making me verify my assumptions
If I were him, I wouldn't respond. Setting deadlines just gives people some to judge against, good for internal tracking, but not helpful externally. Especially in a case like this where there is not a (known) pressing need to switch the pack design, just an advantage to.

Plus J.B. is the battery guru, I'm sure he's already made the spreadsheet of options.

 

[Zooomer]

A lot of people are focused on wants rather than putting yourself in the mindset of running Tesla.

The only reasons to switch to 2170 would be for cost improvements. The performance gains aren't that important when you're car is already the top (for now). Since Tesla is buying batteries from Samsung and others for energy storage products, we can assume they are production limited on 2170 cells. Why would they add to the pain moving S/X to them?

A cell swap would mean a lot of retooling and re-validation of the vehicles. It's expensive and risky. Why would they do that?

Existing 18650 can be pushed a little further. Tesla can go from 335 miles to an even # of 350 without any work at all. It's only a 4.3% density increase but they could do it with even less (and have historically done so) because the 100KW pack is actually a 102.4 now. Very low cost/work, this move makes the most sense. I'm not sure why so many here don't see that.

What would Panasonic/Tesla do with all the 18650 capacity if they moved the S/X to 2170 cells? Panasonic announced exploring things with Toyota but that would be years down the road, probably when Tesla will move to 2170s in all vehicles.

Supercharger speed could be improved with chemistry changes but why? Why add cost when the SC stations are hardware limited. It's not like it's going to increase sales. A reason may be to reduce congestion but it would be an insignificant improvement.

 

[sillydriver]

"no plans" to switch S and X to 2170s according to Elon, currently on the call.

 

[ecarfan]

"no plans" to switch S and X to 2170s according to Elon, currently on the call.

Yes, Elon was pretty clear about that. His statement was unequivocal (paraphrase): “Tesla has no plan to switch to 2170 for the S and X.”

I think Tesla can get as many 18650 as they need from Panasonic. The S and X still have no real competition. The Jaguar i-Pace, Audi e-Tron, and Porsche Taycan ranges fall short of the S and X, and the Tesla Supercharger network is a huge advantage over those competitors.

There is no reason for Tesla to devote resources to redesigning the S/X pack for 2170 cells, cells that Tesla desperately needs for Model 3 production and for Tesla Energy products.

The current S/X pack capacity is likely to remain unchanged for at least a year, and my guess is more like 2 to 3 years. A range of around 300 miles is sufficient for the vast majority of potential Tesla buyers, and as the Supercharger network continues to expand, the need for longer ranges decreases even further.

That said, there are still edge cases where greater pack capacity would be desirable. I’m one of them. Towing a trailer with an X dramatically impacts range. I would love to have an X with an EPA rating of over 350 miles.

 

[mongo]

Unless there was a major tear up, a compatible 2170 pack is going to be only maybe 5-10% more capacity. If they kept all the inner bracing to avoid vehicle recert issues, it might not even hit that. A poster in the Market thread pointed out that the 18650s from Panasonic are likely on fully depreciated equipment and may be price competitive or even cheaper than 2170s from new equipment...

 

[SMAlset]

Yes, Elon was pretty clear about that. His statement was unequivocal (paraphrase): “Tesla has no plan to switch to 2170 for the S and X.”

I think Tesla can get as many 18650 as they need from Panasonic. The S and X still have no real competition. The Jaguar i-Pace, Audi e-Tron, and Porsche Taycan ranges fall short of the S and X, and the Tesla Supercharger network is a huge advantage over those competitors.

There is no reason for Tesla to devote resources to redesigning the S/X pack for 2170 cells, cells that Tesla desperately needs for Model 3 production and for Tesla Energy products.

The current S/X pack capacity is likely to remain unchanged for at least a year, and my guess is more like 2 to 3 years. A range of around 300 miles is sufficient for the vast majority of potential Tesla buyers, and as the Supercharger network continues to expand, the need for longer ranges decreases even further.

That said, there are still edge cases where greater pack capacity would be desirable. I’m one of them. Towing a trailer with an X dramatically impacts range. I would love to have an X with an EPA rating of over 350 miles.

When I heard that remark from Elon on the Conference Call yesterday, what my mind went to was... after he said he couldn’t say anything further on that subject (leading me to believe there are plans in the works but not disclosable yet)...was that maybe the plan is for a newer battery technology, not the 2170, to be used in the MS/MX when they are ready to refresh the models and not before. The MS/MX being their top of the line models, I assume will have the best efficiency and range in addition to the larger cabin storage capacity etc. No doubt the wiring and other components, based on what they learned from the Model 3, will be incorporated in any refresh. So a refresh will be a total re-engineering of the cars at that point. If they aren’t using the 2170s, I find it hard to think they will stick with an older battery technology that limits the current 100kW battery to the range miles it has now. I just think to win over more potential owners to Tesla there will still be a concerted push to up the range from where it is now on the MS/MX.

 

[bob_p]

Since V3 supercharging is supposed to come out this year, and Tesla would have a huge problem selling S/X if only the 3/Y have V3 supercharging, if Musk indicated there are no plans to produce 2170 S/X battery packs, that could leave open the door for faster V3 supercharging support with the 100 battery packs.

Perhaps that's the reason why they've dropped the older 75 packs.

Tesla(Musk) was talking about V3 supercharging before the 100 packs went into production, so it's possible they designed the 100 packs to handle the higher charging power and increased thermal control needed for faster charging.

 

[ucmndd]

Perhaps that's the reason why they've dropped the older 75 packs.
.

That’s my speculation. I believe it certainly weighed heavily on the decision.

 

[sandpiper]

Since V3 supercharging is supposed to come out this year, and Tesla would have a huge problem selling S/X if only the 3/Y have V3 supercharging, if Musk indicated there are no plans to produce 2170 S/X battery packs, that could leave open the door for faster V3 supercharging support with the 100 battery packs.

Perhaps that's the reason why they've dropped the older 75 packs.

Tesla(Musk) was talking about V3 supercharging before the 100 packs went into production, so it's possible they designed the 100 packs to handle the higher charging power and increased thermal control needed for faster charging.

Were that the case, I think we'd be hearing noise from the P100D crowd. I believe the P3D can handle sustained "tracking", unlike the P100D that starts to power limit very quickly. And so that implies better thermal regulation than what we see in the P100D. If something had changed in the pack, then the new P100Ds should be able to track like the P3D. Or at least better.

 

[sandpiper]

That’s my speculation. I believe it certainly weighed heavily on the decision.

BTW... I still owe you a die cast car! PM me if you'd like it.

Although I do feel pretty much vindicated in that I wasn't wrong - just off by a few days.

 

[ucmndd]

BTW... I still owe you a die cast car! PM me if you'd like it.

Although I do feel pretty much vindicated in that I wasn't wrong - just off by a few days.

We'll call it a draw.

 

[NeverFollow]

I just don't think that there will be any Model S/X battery change or announcement util the 2020 (?) Roadster with 600 miles range.

 

[mongo]

Were that the case, I think we'd be hearing noise from the P100D crowd. I believe the P3D can handle sustained "tracking", unlike the P100D that starts to power limit very quickly. And so that implies better thermal regulation than what we see in the P100D. If something had changed in the pack, then the new P100Ds should be able to track like the P3D. Or at least better.

I believe the problem in the S/X is the AC induction motor heating up, not the pack.

 

[sandpiper]

I believe the problem in the S/X is the AC induction motor heating up, not the pack.

You sure about that?

 

[mongo]

You sure about that?

I'm positive I believe that!
The issue, as I understand it, is that the rotor heats up. It is cooled, but only from the center shaft (co-axial coolant flow).

Mid point of discussion:
General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

 

[HumanGenome]

Tesla has issue enough getting the Model 3 out. Why complicate adding on a refresh with 2170s that would have to involve a major change in production lines. Powertrain needs a new design and would likely be made at GF1.

We won't be seeing 2170 on S/X any time soon (years)

 

[Christopher1]

Model 3 support higher charging then S and X. That won't last.
Model x has room for a taller battery (20mm space between battery and the floor?). The S need a redesign..

 

[Uncle Paul]

It may also be that Tesla will release a newer technology battery for better range, charging speed and lower costs of production. They could release thisnew battery chemistry in the current sized cells and simply begun to implement them in their new production when they become available.

 

[NeverFollow]

It may also be that Tesla will release a newer technology battery for better range,
charging speed and lower costs of production.
They could release thisnew battery chemistry in the current sized cells
and simply begun to implement them in their new production when they become available.

Exactly what I think, I don't believe that there will be any Model S/X battery change or announcement
until the 2020 (?) Roadster with 600 miles range.

 

[henderrj]

Tesla acquires ultracapacitor and battery manufacturer for over $200 million

Hmm, related?