Hope you get the v2.0 chassis.....but don't count your chickens just yet.
It's still a balloon needing to be launched.
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It's still a balloon needing to be launched.
speculation. nothing of the sort has been stated, implied, or confirmed.
there's as much speculation that Austin will make only MYP as there is speculation of only MYLR.
ONLY TESLA KNOWS as of this time. They'll tell us when they're good and ready, and not before, Internet Blogs are BS.
This is Austin Model Y. Wheels and calipers are NOT those of a Performance version. There would be 0 sense to certify MYP on MYLR wheels.
again, no one knows whether one, the other, or BOTH variants will be made in Austin.
Guessing is just that - guessing.
Only Tesla knows and they're not telling. And 4680 is too slow for the MYP ??? Really?
Have you ever wondered why Tesla still uses 18650 on Model S Plaid? The smaller is the battery the easier it is to cool it. Also, the ion path length can be potentially shorter in smaller batteries, but that requires a closer look at design.
4680: higher density? - Yes, cheaper? - Yes; faster? - Nah.
benryan
Member
My guess is Austin will be making both the Model Y LR and Model Y P.
Why am I guessing this?
- Elon believes Model Y will be the biggest selling vehicle, and will be overtaking the Model 3
- To sell a lot of Model Ys you need to include the LR version. (There are lot more LRs sold than Ps)
- As Elon said on the call you don't want to ship new vehicles thousands of miles to reach the customer. Austin will be covering deliveries for the eastern 2/3s of the United States.
again, no one knows whether one, the other, or BOTH variants will be made in Austin.
Guessing is just that - guessing.
Onlt Tesla knows and they're not telling. And 4680 is too slow for the MYP ??? Really?
Tesla has been stockpiling Front Megacasts on the lot at Fremont for months. 4680 batteries are made across the lot at Kato Road.
Both factories will be making the new MY v2.0 chassis pretty much at the same time. Facility changes at Fremont are already underway.
LR, P, both will be made at both factories.
If they don't, the logistics of suppliers and deliveries will be rather complex. And costly. Not happening.
benryan
Member
Regarding Fremont making Model Ys with 4680s in the near term. I thought Elon did not want to take a disruption hit to the Fremont production line by switching over to the 4680 batteries until Austin and Berlin are fully up and running with 4680 production cars and have ironed out all the production teething problems.
Elon Musk tweet
Man, y'all are the most optimistic bunch I've ever seen 
. I don't think Austin is going to be churning out a whole lot of cars any time soon. The odds that anyone on the east coast expecting to receive a MY in the first half of the year will get a 4680 MY from Austin are extremely slim imho. And I say this despite wanting it to be true given my March EDD for my MYLR.
. I don't think Austin is going to be churning out a whole lot of cars any time soon. The odds that anyone on the east coast expecting to receive a MY in the first half of the year will get a 4680 MY from Austin are extremely slim imho. And I say this despite wanting it to be true given my March EDD for my MYLR.
that tweet is over 2 years old - Oct 2020.
Tesla adapts.
Circumstances change, Tesla changes. It's a strength.
Tesla TODAY at the Earnings Call said Berlin will start with 2170 battery packs when regulatory approval is finally granted.
Tesla also said during today's Earnings Call that there will be sufficient 4680 supply to meet production plans.
Specifically, between Tesla themselves and outside suppliers, they believe there will be enough.
That also implies their plans don't require big volume soon, since no one outside Tesla is making 4680's yet, or even near term.
Austin is still testing their new battery fab machines, and has yet to integrate the ingredient mixing stations to feed those machines. But working on it hard.
They just received a batch of plumbing for that mixing last week. Visit Joe Tegtmeyer's GigaTexas drone videos on YT.
So nothing in the way of 4680's will come out of Austin soon. They'll all come from GigaNevada and Fremont, which do the battery packs.
Fremont has been making 4680's for months, warehousing the ones that pass QC, while they worked to improve yields.
According to today's Earnings Call, the VP Engineering (Baglione) indicated they have enough to meet production plans going forward.
Umm, NO. You're right, it USED TO BE true that smaller was easier to cool.
But the 18650 battery was retained in the last refresh because the 4680 could not be counted on to be available in time for the refresh completion.
One of the 'breakthroughs' achieved by the 4680 was better cooling despite increased size. Usually, bigger is a thermal trap. Not so in the 4680.
The plumbing necessary to cool 18650, 2170 batteries in the packs has been significantly reduced in the 4680 structural pack for the MY.
That was due in part because of how the 4680 casing and jellyroll is constructed.
The ion path' issue was also solved in the 4680.
Go back to their 'Battery Day' presentation 10/20.
Tesla would have preferred to use the 4680 in the MS and MX refresh, both for cost reduction AND for plumbing reduction.
But it wasn't to be, since they ran into production engineering issues....that only now appear to have been solved.
Most would be visitors to this blog.
Outside in the real world, few would care beyond what they'd heard from blog hype.
Tesla wants profit improvement on ALL their cars.
Since batteries represent the lion's share of cost, and Tesla keeps the margin on batteries they make themselves, they'll put them in every and all cars they can.
Why give the profit to Panasonic? Only when Tesla can't make enough themselves. And Panasonic can't make 4680's yet for several months, if not several Quarters.
During today's Earnings Call, Baglione (VP Engr) said Tesla 4680 production, plus outside production, can meet all their production plans.
Fewer battery types equals easier logistics, easier production, and more profit. That's their goal, said out loud.
Their focus for 2021 is profit, as chip supplies are expected be a limiter of production quantity.
This is wrong, the 4680s have the potential to put out more power. The original Plaid, renamed the Plaid+, and later cancelled, was supposed to use 4680s.
This video explains why/how the 4680s will be able to put out more power:
Unfortunately, as with many Youtube videos, this one gets many things wrong. Again, making multiple contacts to the electrodes will NOT make the electrons move faster. All this does is to help reroute currents along shorter paths decreasing the thermal stress of the battery. Reducing the thermal stress may potentially allow for higher currents (and more power), but that depends on the ability of the electrolyte to move the charges (please review how the battery works in a General Physics Electricity and Magnetism course). Then, the ability to run the battery at a higher current depends on the ability to cool it down quickly. This generally increases with the battery size. Using multiple electrodes may help to cool it better, but that is a big 'MAY' and then Tesla basically needs to cool battery wire connectors (top and bottom cooling) which I haven't seen in their design.
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