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Analysis of the price-hike for FSD, and the options it allows Tesla
- Thread starter bradtem
- Start date
Tam
Well-Known Member
My fault!
Just because you wrote so I assumed you must be a writer without checking first whether you have got any degree in English or Journalism.
What a mess!
Yeah, well, I kinda started this thread to discuss the pricing and promises of FSD and how they might deliver. Boring stuff like that, not exciting stuff like deciding whether Elon Musk is an engineer or not.
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
Software engineers have no formal licensing here in the US and no one would claim they are not engineers. There are certain fields that require professional engineer licensing (like civil and structural) because they have to sign off on construction plans, but plenty of engineers in other fields don't require official licensing to work in the field.
Tam
Well-Known Member
In the US, currently, Tesla has a monopoly on generalized ADAS.
GM Super Cruise is ADAS too but only for HD-mapped highways so that's not a good competition without being able to use it in city streets.
That means Tesla can increase the price of EAP and FSD with no fear.
However, that is not the case in China. Tesla has to reduce the FSD price in half for pre-existing owners (no need to be pre-existing FSD owners) due to the ADAS competition.
We need to watch how much of the competition threat from the Mercedes L3 (with LIDAR) is in Germany will be. It's coming to the US in a few years when the L3 sales permit will be granted.
By the time Mercedes L3 arrives in the US, GM will have its Ultra Cruise (with LIDAR) ready. It's intentionally classified as L2 ADAS but will cover 95% driving scenarios. The missing 5% destined it to go no further than L2.
That means, in a few years from now, we'll have additional 2 competitors that allow hands-free ADAS. A clear understanding as ADAS with a matured Autosteer hands-free but still with eyes-on while on L2 operation. That will compete with Tesla hands-on FSD that is still not matured enough to be hands-free since it's first introduction in 2014 or 8 years ago.
Thus, it is a good move for Tesla to increase its price (ideally to $100,000 if the market is willing) before the competition will arrive in a few years.
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willow_hiller
Well-Known Member
Even discounting Autosteer on city streets as being unavailable to most FSD customers, are there any other ADAS systems available anywhere in the world that can recognize and brake for red stop lights and stop signs? And once Autosteer on city streets releases wide, will there be any consumer-level ADAS that can make left and right-hand turns through intersections?
So your feeling is that the price of FSD is based on competition for Autopilot? Do you suggest that a large fraction of the FSD sales were to get the EAP features rather than the promise of future FSD? In that case, I could see the point. But since you get basic Autopilot with every car in China or the USA, why does Autopilot competition affect the price of FSD the future self-driving product. (Amusing note, Future Self Driving would be a better name for the product, and might get California off Tesla's back.)
I think it would not be too hard for competitors to add such braking -- but they have no reason to as they don't support city streets in the first place and you don't get stop signs on the freeway.
The interesting question is, what fraction of customers want autosteer on city streets? I personally find it a harrowing and unpleasant experience. I would not pay money for it. But I understand there are those who like it. ACC Cruise control on city streets is a possibly useful product, and it is better with stop sign/traffic light control.
Key to this though is that like any ACC, it won't catch all the signs and lights. That's because you don't want too many false positives which are phantom braking.
Tam
Well-Known Member
Yes. Currently, in China:
1) Zeekr 001 with L2 MobilEye Supervision.
2) Xpeng L2 Xpilot 3.5
L2 GM Ultra Cruise works in 95% of driving scenarios (on sale in a few years), including the above maneuvers.
Tam
Well-Known Member
In China, their L2 has been able to do all the maneuvers of Tesla FSD beta: From stop signs, traffic lights, unprotected left turns, and more. Their cars can do all the maneuvers that a human can, but China still classifies the system as L2 because it can still cause accidents if not supervised by a licensed driver.
No. Like when I buy Swiss cheese, I expect it to be Swiss cheese. At least poke some holes in it even when it's made in the USA and doesn't come from Swiss.
Same with FSD. When people buy FSD, they expect FSD. Or if it can't drive on its own, at least let my dog drive the Tesla:
Because China L2 does all that Tesla FSD beta can do right now.
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stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
AFAIK, if doesn't yet actually. Some teasers have been shown but AFAIK there is no public release yet.
Also keep in mind, Tesla has not launched FSD Beta yet in most countries and due to local laws event the maneuvers EAP can do may be more limited than in the US. That will play into how they do international pricing.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
I don’t think that many people. It has to be REALLY good to be good enough.
I really would like to ride in a Waymo or Cruise sometime to see if they are any good at driving. I expect them to be pretty good, but it is possible they are not. They would definitely be way better than FSD, but wonder if they are good enough for L2.
Wait, what? Many people ride Waymos every day, in the back seat with nobody up front. Once they get over the novelty they stare at their phones and do email or whatever. That's after they drove tens of millions of miles with a driver supervising, effectively as a too-good L2. Not sure where you are going. You're not doing that silly thing about how Tesla is superior to Waymo because Teslas crash everwhere, while Waymos only drive (without crashing) in their pilot project zones, as though scaling up maps is the hard thing, and making a car drive without error is the easy thing?
Tam
Well-Known Member
It could be, but the L2 competition is imminent in China. That motivated Tesla to half its FSD price for existing owners, so they don't switch to another L2 brand:
Price chart for XPeng Xpilot 3.5 as of 4 months ago
Zeekr 001 SuperVision OTA as of 2 months ago
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AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
No, I am not doing that. Apparently you haven’t been following along, lol.
Making a car drive without error is definitely very difficult and the big challenge.
Right, but I never have. I definitely would like to try one to see how it drives, exactly as I said! I’m curious whether it is good enough to be used as a (useful) L2 system (limiting it to its ODD for the sake of argument of course)!
I think it is likely extremely good. Probably good enough? But I don’t have ANY idea.
I will try one at my first easy opportunity.
Will it be fast enough? Will it assert itself enough? Will it get to the destination in the most expedient manner? Will it be silky smooth? Will I feel completely relaxed? I probably have more questions too, might have to take a ride in order to figure out the questions to ask!
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willow_hiller
Well-Known Member
It's not possible to compare the progress between Tesla and Waymo because they're taking such different approaches. You can compare how they act in Chandler or SF, but that's meaningless for anyone who lives elsewhere. Until Waymo comes to my nearest city, Tesla is in the lead here.
Or you can ask yourself the hypothetical: if Tesla had focused on achieving FSD only in two cities for the past 3 years, how well do you think they'd compare today?
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
This talks about hardware packages akin to HW2.5 vs HW3. The software is still NGP which is the equivalent to NOA. It's not the equivalent to FSD Beta yet.
This is again only highway assist and from a quick glance does not even change lanes on its own, so is equivalent of free AP.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
He has delegated work in his companies to 100,000+ people.
ps : This is just a classic hater thing. Anything and everything Elon does is hated. Its as if some people have Elon Musk Derangement Syndrome.
Even Musk admits he has issues delegating.
SpaceX is probably the best example of where he did delegate a lot of responsibility, and I think it shows in the success of SpaceX.
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