Analysis of the price-hike for FSD, and the options it allows Tesla

[willow_hiller]

Yes, they did soften the promises on the web site materials about FSD in later years.

I see this repeated often, but it only applies to the language on the vehicle configurator. All of the same language about their goal for FSD is still available on Tesla's Autopilot page:

Autopilot

All new Tesla vehicles are equipped with the hardware needed for Autopilot and Full Self-Driving capability features, designed to improve functionality over time.

www.tesla.com

All new Tesla cars have the hardware needed in the future for full self-driving in almost all circumstances. The system is designed to be able to conduct short and long distance trips with no action required by the person in the driver’s seat.

All you will need to do is get in and tell your car where to go. If you don’t say anything, your car will look at your calendar and take you there as the assumed destination. Your Tesla will figure out the optimal route, navigating urban streets, complex intersections and freeways.

When you arrive at your destination, simply step out at the entrance and your car will enter park seek mode, automatically search for a spot and park itself. A tap on your phone summons it back to you.

 

[bradtem]

$3k, should have got it for $2k when I could though.

My recollect was this was in 2019 that it was $3K with the brief $2K offer, which is what I did. In 2020 it was more. Am I confusing the years?

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

My recollect was this was in 2019 that it was $3K with the brief $2K offer, which is what I did. In 2020 it was more. Am I confusing the years?

There was a discount in 2020 to $3k at the end of June.

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

I admit surprise. You paid $6K or whatever the price was and you expected no more than a city street autopilot where you have to watch the car, ready to intervene as it drives?

I have to admit I am baffled that people want this. I find driving with it a harrowing experience. My GF won't let me use it when she's in the car. I don't think this will change when the intervention level goes down, and in some cases it will get worse due to greater complacency. I drive with it to evaluate it, I don't like using it. If I could choose between driver-assist on city streets and full-auto on highways, I would not even think about it. Autopilot already worked on the city streets I would use driver assist on -- urban arterials with almost no peds or cycles and not in turns.

But obviously not everybody's tastes are the same as mine, so I am curious about the numbers. In 2020 Elon was definitely telling you that you were going to get self-driving, so I am surprised it was crystal clear.

When I paid $3K for FSD back in 2018 the autonomous driving was very much still part of the promise. It wasn't till that March 2019 date that Tesla revamped the website which clouded what was even promised for FSD.

Back then FSD did require an EAP purchase which was $5K, but it had its own feature set that was separate from FSD. In fact back then FSD was the autonomous aspect so obviously I was paying $3K for autonomous even if I didn't think it would be capable of it.

Why would I pay $3K for something I didn't believe it was even capable of?

The most important aspect of the FSD purchase was the free upgrade to HW3. This is really why I got FSD as I wanted to get all the updates, and I figured it would require HW3 (which proved to be correct). I also knew Tesla would be on the hook for delivering FSD as promised or giving me a refund.

In 2022 I traded my Tesla in on a Rivian so I basically let Tesla off the hook.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

I see this repeated often, but it only applies to the language on the vehicle configurator.

When I am buying something, I look for the caveats, and take them as ironclad. I ignore all other promises.

 

[phonetele226]

I wouldn't say Elons Twitter is Elon being an Engineer.

Instead Elons twitter is often Elon putting on either his Marketing Hat or is Salesman hat.

In my initial post to this thread I posted my own take on it, and as I disagreed with the OP's take. But, at the same time I highly respected the OP's willingness to have his article challenged.

It's a good sign when the author of an article seeks out opposing viewpoints.

Musk is not an engineer. He has a degree in economics and physics. A real engineer would know better than put a yoke in a car.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Musk is not an engineer. He has a degree in economics and physics. A real engineer would know better than put a yoke in a car.

If never making stupid design decisions is necessary to be a real engineer then real engineers do not exist.

 

[JPWX]

Does anyone know if I have an existing Tesla, without EAP or FSD, will they increase the price to 7,500 and 15,000 respectively, or does it just stay at what it currently shows in my account?

Thank you!

 

[2101Guy]

Does anyone know if I have an existing Tesla, without EAP or FSD, will they increase the price to 7,500 and 15,000 respectively, or does it just stay at what it currently shows in my account?

Thank you!

LOL. Is this a serious question? You REALLY think the company that now charges for a plastic license plate frame is going to miss out on $7500 of sweet USD cash for their beta software? If you believe that? Then you believe this too

Elon Musk says Tesla's Full Self-Driving tech will have Level 5 autonomy by the end of 2021​

 

[willow_hiller]

Elon Musk says Tesla's Full Self-Driving tech will have Level 5 autonomy by the end of 2021

I can't imagine caring this much about FSD, and yet being too lazy to actually post anything other than a headline paraphrasing a quote without context.

Link to my reply to this in another thread, so if anyone else is interested in actually reading the context instead of a just headline: Will Tesla sue Dan O'Dowd?

 

[momo3605]

I did not have to look very far.

Go to 6:30 in the first video to see the car blatantly miss a green light. This is not a good L2 system; I would blast through this with accelerator application, being sure that no pedestrians are tempted to enter the intersection.

It may be just fine for an L3 or L4 system, but not helpful as an L2 driver assist (it needs to be quite a bit better in certain ways!).

Also no audio so you cannot hear all the honking, lol. (Note the human driver blasting around the ego vehicle in the above situation, since it was being ridiculous.)

This is a really tough problem and I encourage people to actually use the systems in question before determining whether they are good.

I think I sort of understand why you expect L2 to be better than L4. Is it because an L4 robotaxi is obviously a funny looking car and expected to drive slow and cautiously where an L2 consumer car with vision may not be automatically assumed to be self-driving, and driving like a robotaxi might piss off drivers behind?

I kinda get that, but I don’t think that’s the case. Safe defensive driving technique should be the same for everyone used by L2 or L4 systems. I expect an L2 system will drive just like a robotaxi, but occasionally try to kill you (hence L2) lol

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Is it because an L4 robotaxi is obviously a funny looking car and expected to drive slow and cautiously where an L2 consumer car with vision may not be automatically assumed to be self-driving, and driving like a robotaxi might piss off drivers behind?

Yes. That is a huge factor.
Plus the driver won’t put up with that behavior - especially since they are liable for any bad situations the car creates.

Safe defensive driving technique should be the same for everyone used by L2 or L4 systems.

Yes, but it is tricky. I haven’t seen an L4 system that is as good at defensive driving as a good human. Yet.

So, many humans who drive an L2 vehicle that behaves like this will be very upset by it. And possibly concerned by its actions.

It’s about making the machine an extension of the human, which is MUCH harder than having the machine be standalone. That’s my claim anyway.

I think it is a very very difficult problem. And solving L4 (which is far off anyway) may not result in a system that is good enough to be used by a human (unless it is used in the background, which is different - and I think the most likely useful application, which will be implemented (in a useful manner) sooner in the consumer mainstream than any of these other products).

My main point is that I think it is important to drive in any of these vehicles before assessing whether they are “good.” Videos are basically useless. The clip I identified is egregiously bad (look at when the car starts slowing!!!). Safety driver just sits there, helplessly, wondering why the car is going so slowly. But hard to see this in the video when you first watch it. It is slowing down for 10 seconds from 20mph!!! No one except the very worst drivers drives like this!

 

[bradtem]

Yes. That is a huge factor.
Plus the driver won’t put up with that behavior - especially since they are liable for any bad situations the car creates.

Yes, but it is tricky. I haven’t seen an L4 system that is as good at defensive driving as a good human. Yet.

So, many humans who drive an L2 vehicle that behaves like this will be very upset by it. And possibly concerned by its actions.

It’s about making the machine an extension of the human, which is MUCH harder than having the machine be standalone. That’s my claim anyway.

I think it is a very very difficult problem. And solving L4 (which is far off anyway) may not result in a system that is good enough to be used by a human (unless it is used in the background, which is different - and I think the most likely useful application, which will be implemented (in a useful manner) sooner in the consumer mainstream than any of these other products).

Actually, robots can be very good at defensive driving. The problem is being too defensive. You need to be aggressive to drive. This is one of the goals of RSS. It's easy to worry about all the potential problems that might happen. The challenge is to know which ones not to worry about.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Actually, robots can be very good at defensive driving. The problem is being too defensive. You need to be aggressive to drive. This is one of the goals of RSS. It's easy to worry about all the potential problems that might happen. The challenge is to know which ones not to worry about.

That’s what I mean. I am talking about good human defensive driving techniques. That requires assertiveness at times to enable you to rapidly give right of way to others, create space, etc. The example referenced is a good example. You can keep that pedestrian safer by making sure you assert your right of way, and give it if necessary. Non-standard vehicle behaviors are very dangerous for the pedestrian since it is unexpected (the car cutting around may well not be expected, and the pedestrian may interpret the slowing as the vehicle letting him cross on the red).

We don’t have the response time and perception (arguably!) of computers but a well trained driver is very good at this stuff, and will be extremely bothered by a slow-driving and inept computer which is very good at not hitting anything, at the expense of everything else.

It’s super tricky. And while Mobileye may have worked with RSS and is trying to formulate it, for obvious reasons, they are being extremely conservative. Right now this results in an unusable (in city type driving - obviously in trivial situations it may be just fine most of the time) L2 solution. (Tesla suffers from the same problem but they don’t let usability stop them.)

 

[JPWX]

LOL. Is this a serious question? You REALLY think the company that now charges for a plastic license plate frame is going to miss out on $7500 of sweet USD cash for their beta software? If you believe that? Then you believe this too

Elon Musk says Tesla's Full Self-Driving tech will have Level 5 autonomy by the end of 2021​

It was a serious question. I meant I believe the current cost is $6K/$12K. Does it go up for existing vehicles or just new ones?

 

[Tam]

It was a serious question. I meant I believe the current cost is $6K/$12K. Does it go up for existing vehicles or just new ones?

It should.

His intention is to keep increasing the price until $100,000 if you wait:

Tesla to hike FSD price but Musk says worth $100K

Tesla's Full Self Driving package will rise by $US1,000 come July 1, but Musk says it will be worth more than $100K in time.

thedriven.io

 

[Dunsel]

My GF won't let me use it when she's in the car.

Same (wife).

I’ve read a lot of funny things about FSD on this forum but let me get this straight.

These are a couple of guys telling an online group, made overwhelmingly of men, that FSD beta, which is overwhelmingly designed and used by men, is somehow bad because some women don’t like it? Like if my wife posted on the knitting forum that birch knitting needles are bad because her husband won’t use them.

 

[LowlyOilBurner]

If you pay $15k, you better get what the beta can do. While not perfect, I found it very useful. What you currently get with “FSD” on say, 2022.20.8 is worth $1,500-2,000.00. Tops. I bought “FSD” in 2019 for $6k and had the beta on my 2020 Y (October 2021) I enjoyed it, and saw the potential, so much, I paid $12k for it on my 2022. Alas, I don’t have the beta on my 2022 (yet????), and now I really regret the purchase, as I technically lost functionality from my 2020. I get it, it’s an “invite only” blah blah blah, but if you’re going to charge people all that kind of paper money for “something”, it better be better than subpar lane keeping and a car that puts its blinker on for you. Sorry, just the facts.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

I’ve read a lot of funny things about FSD on this forum but let me get this straight.

These are a couple of guys telling an online group, made overwhelmingly of men, that FSD beta, which is overwhelmingly designed and used by men, is somehow bad because some women don’t like it? Like if my wife posted on the knitting forum that birch knitting needles are bad because her husband won’t use them.

It has nothing to do with them being women or wives or girlfriends. It’s really just a passenger test, where said passenger is not afraid to voice their opinion. Any passenger would be the same. It’s quite disturbing and unpleasant for a passenger. Take a ride sometime.

 

[stopcrazypp]

This is one of those silly arguments around here where people who did not buy FSD are upset that they have to pay for HW3 if they go with a subscription model. You can review other posts for the entire sordid history of people arguing back and forth about it.

That reminds me that someone said they would file a lawsuit in small claims court shortly after the subscription came out in 2021. I dug up the post:
MASTER THREAD: FSD Subscription Available 16 Jul 2021
A couple months later was called out for not filing, but claims that small claims was backed up.
FSD Beta Videos (and questions for FSD Beta drivers)
It's been a year since that last post, I wasn't able to find a follow up to that however.