Nah, that is way off at 15k. But it is probably a BMS issue, not real degradation.
I just passed 30,000km or 18000 miles, one year and 2 months of ownership and am at 75kWh nominal full (it actually went up the other day from 74.6 to 75 when charging very slowly to 100%).
I regularly charge 10%-90% and almost never charge daily so I guess my BMS is ok.
I have about 60% DC charge vs 40% AC (mostly Supercharger or HPC- 200kW Chargers)
I also tested the 100%-5% procedure to see if the SMT is reporting correct numbers and the BMS is ok and it came up 0.5kWh short (74.5), which is probably some little heat loss or a minor misscalibration of the BMS.
These are also the numbers I get from people around me. Bjorn Nyland is at 60,000km and has about 73-74kWh nominal full at 18 months of ownership (just 4 months shy of your car). And he beats the hell out of his P and charges on DC a lot.
Once again, 9% at 15k is not normal degradataion, sorry to burst that bubble again.
You seem extremely certain, lol! (BTW, I'm actually at 17k miles, not the 15k miles I quoted above. Was in a rush, gave the wrong number - was quoting my Toyota Highlander by mistake.)
I assure you my experience is well within the normal variability. I've never said that any particular vehicle will match mine. I am simply giving reasonable values to EXPECT (with margin - because obviously you want to end up with more range than you budget for!!!). I personally know of one other vehicle that is for sure lower than mine, and obviously I've heard of many here that are considerably lower than mine. So, if you expect and budget for 20% degradation (I think 15% is probably also ok to budget for), you don't have to worry about anything; unless your battery goes bad, you'll very likely do better than this for a long time.
I was at 74kWh at 14 months (13k miles), so do check yours in another 7 months. It's entirely possible my actual BMS kWh is something like 72kWh (or even 72.5kWh!) rather than 71kWh, but there's no need to split hairs over minuscule amounts of energy. It seems fairly certain that it's not 74kWh. I will of course at some point do several full 100-95% to 5% cycles (I'm going on a road trip soon), but I am not expecting some miraculous recovery to 74-75kWh, as that has never happened for me in the past. I see +/-1kWh bouncing around the value I quote, but not much more than that. If I settle to 73kWh or something, I would be super happy (I don't expect that).
9% is perfectly normal at 21 months age. That is to say, many people will have better than that value at that age, but quite a few people will do a bit worse. It's well within the normal range of variability!
Again, check in in 7 months (when the battery is warm, of course - might have to make it more like 9 months, for your spring time).
Anecdotally, I do think that vehicles built between August and November of 2018 seem a bit worse than others. But I don't have data to support that other than anecdata. So this particular claim might not be true.
Consider my bubble of battery buffoonery NOT BURST.
I'm old enough to remember the halcyon days of 2019 when your car had 75.7kWh at a full charge!
Besides, we've already done the AC charging measurements from near empty, timed & calibrated (with voltage and current) extremely carefully, with no excess accessory use, and compared between vehicles, to demonstrate that an SR vehicle that shows substantially reduced range necessarily takes less AC energy to recharge (and when accounting for the well controlled and very well known charging losses, will exactly match the BMS value...). Obviously, that could be an issue with the zero point not being well known to the BMS, but at the moment we have no real evidence of that, and practically speaking it doesn't matter since no one is driving to that point, so it's the available energy above 5% that everyone actually cares about (which can be measured (and then calculated by converting to DC) with a timed charging event!).
f you have any visible loss of capacity, you can also just multiply your miles at 100% by the appropriate charging constant (published elsewhere here for the 2020 Model 3) and get the kWh when full.
@Stellavator for your 2020 Model 3, the constant is ~241Wh/rmi, ~255Wh/rmi, ~260Wh/rmi for 18"/19"/20", respectively. So charge to 100%, or at least over 95%, extrapolate from 95% to 100%, take that number of rmis, multiply by the constant. It'll give nearly exactly the same value as SMT (less than 0.5kWh difference).