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Discussion in 'Model X' started by Pennstlong, Oct 19, 2016.
The upgrade path is called ordering a new car.
My decision to lease is looking better and better. This is exactly the reason I chose to lease. Also, it's not all positive for the new owners as they will have much less AP functionality for the foreseeable future than we do. "Validating" the software and getting regulatory approval is a huge unknown.
Unfortunate that I'm gonna have to give up my Signature Red X for one with Self-Driving hardware. I'd pay up to 10-15k to have my Sig X retrofitted. The depreciation hit will be at least 20-30k not to mention sales tax again.
Thought about it, and am definitely gonna wait until APv2 Hardware and Self Driving Software is released before I order a new X (which will prob be late 2017.
By that time, I'll have about 60,000 miles on the car, and it'll be worth the price difference, because there'll prob be a 100D out by then, as well as some other cool enhancements.
Definitely not making the mistake of buying a car while waiting for future updates. (Did that with my P85D from Dec 2014 to Oct 2015. Then Got rid of it in Feb 2016 for my Sig X).
when they offer me 20k for a 2 year old porsche with less than 30k miles .. then ya i'd call that lowballing ended up going to a ICE dealer to trade it in
Just get it in your model 3 and drive your X.
Lol, yep, that's low balling. I took my previous vehicle to CarMax to sell; I didn't even bother with getting an offer from Tesla. My few replies up above we're working under the assumption of trading in a few month old Tesla to Tesla. I haven't read (not that there aren't any - I just don't have the time to search all of the forum) reports of how Tesla's offers on Teslas compare to other dealerships. When I sold to CarMax they did mention that they're finally allowed to keep and sell Teslas, instead of buying and sending to auction, but the impression is still that you won't get a very good price selling to CarMax either.
Same. Also the fact that I leased a 60D which isn't available anymore so if I had waited it'd cost over 15k more.
I'm not surprised about the offer for your Porsche. Tesla has zero interest or capability to buy and sell an ICE vehicle or any EV from another manufacturer. They're just going to send the car to auction. Since they're going to want to actually make some money on the transaction, they're going to offer rock bottom to both disincentivize people from trading in their old ICE vehicles to them and to guarantee a return if the customer doesn't take the hint and accepts their offer.
My fear is that there is very little incentive for Tesla to keep the software up to date on our original Model Xs. Now that the hardware has changed, as has the processor running it, I would expect our days of meaningful software updates are numbered. The number of people with this original configuration is small (small enough to ignore), and there will never be more of us.
Well the only processor changing is the one used for AP. The processor in the IC and CID aren't being updated. (Or if they are they haven't announced it.)
And Elon did say that AP1 software will continue to be updated, but it is very close to reaching the limit of the processing abilities.
Those processors are very inexpensive (esp. relative to the price of the car), and could probably be replaced without much issue. Then the question is software updates tailored to the older sensor suite, which is the difficult/expensive part.
Please explain to me why Tesla needs to wait for "regulatory approval" to use the new hardware? All the legislation will do is remove the nags, and by extension, the driver, from the equation. But you can still have a full self-driving car -- it simply requires a driver in the seat until the legislation says otherwise.
In my opinion, it will only take a very short time for AP2.0 to catch up with AP1.0, maybe a couple of months, then it will surpass it by leaps and bounds, and that's not only in the foreseeable future, it's probably before the end of the year.
But only time will tell.
I'm not sure how it works in the US and Canada, but certainly in the EU and HK, ADAS systems do require regulatory approval, and that even includes adaptive cruise control and lane departure warning systems.
You need to understand the difference between LEGISLATION and REGULATIONS.
We already have the legislation for ADAS. Making changes to it is done by way of the Regulations to it, and not by new legislation.
New legislation is required to remove the driver from the seat. I'M NOT TALKING ABOUT THAT. I'm talking about the vehicle doing more ADAS. For example, to suggest it will not be stopping at stop signs or lights until we can remove the driver from the vehicle is absurd. We don't want the car to stop at a red light? Let's have it be less safe, right? Regulatory approval is a rubber stamp for that. That takes weeks at most. It's done by amendments to existing regulations to the ADAS legislation. Bureaucrats do that. Elected officials pass legislation and bureaucrats do the regs.
I have no doubt Tesla has already submitted the papers for the amendments it is seeking. Once rubber stamped, Canada, UK, HK, etc. all follow suit. Of course, there are minor difference, like I understand those poor folks in HK can't use the browser in the vehicle (unless parked perhaps?) but for the vast majority of features, everyone follows the US's lead.
So it's all practically the same in the US, Canada, EU, HK, etc., etc.
But there's no use arguing about it. Just wait and see.
I understand there's a difference between legislation and regulation, and I'm not talking about removing the driver from the seat, hence why I explicitly said ADAS system. I'm saying that, as someone who formerly worked at an auto supplier, there are regulatory sign-offs for bringing a new ADAS system on the market, even when it is just yet another adaptive cruise control style system, even when you say "drivers need to keep their hands on the wheel"….
I don't quite appreciate the belittling attitude about what I need to understand when we are both speculating as outsiders. But in general an automaker does not just get to put a new driver assistance system on the market with zero sign-off from regulatory bodies. And in general every country wants to independently sign off on these systems except maybe the EU, but as we can already see, Germany as an example is not appreciative of the regulatory power of the signoff from the Netherlands.
Even the simplest sign-offs of this nature take months assuming no political body takes it as an opportunity to turn this into a media spectacle. So I'm not at all surprised about the timeframe. If anything in my semi-automotive opinion it is a bit on the ambitious side already.
Sorry for the belittling tone but in my defence I responded in the manner in which you first responded to me. Of course, you know regulatory approval is required in the US and Canada but you quoted me and then presented your comment in such a manner as if I didn't know that.
I never said otherwise.
I never said otherwise. I said that most countries follow the lead of the US when it comes to automobile safety regulations and rely heavily on US testing. This is well-known in the industry, as is the fact that regulations in the U.S. are stricter than in other countries around the globe when it comes to automobiles.
I responded to a post that said this:
Months is certainly within the foreseeable future and it's the time frame I gave in the post you responded to me, seemingly taking issue with my position. So in the end it seems we both agree.
Haha, yeah, I think we agree, and I should really have coffee or eat lunch *before* trying to formulate a point
Sadly I am going to have to get rid of my Signature Red Model X to get the new AP 2.0 hardware.
After seeing the image today with the AP 2.0 rear-view cameras built into the side markers, I checked my Model X and can confirm that there is no additional, unused wiring harness or other capacity for upgrade built into the side markers. The wire feeding those markers is just a single pair to feed the light.
It looks to me that there will be no real upgrade path for current Tesla drivers. Even the newest Tesla owners (4 month old Model X owner here) may be out of luck.
Granted, I say this is within the context of currently available upgrade technology.
If there is a market and an upgrade is economically feasible with future technology maybe Tesla will have a path to do so.
Also to answer the second part of your question, you don't sound crazy to me.