Because Tesla doesn't make EVs like Nissan and GM (compliance cars that cost far more than an equivalent ICE). Tesla makes incredible cars that happen to be electric, and blow the doors off similarly priced ICE vehicles. The Model S is the best sedan for the price. The Model X will be an even better SUV, with literally nothing on the planet coming close in terms of performance, low center of gravity and handling, driver tech, etc. The Model 3 is supposed to put the BMW 3 series to shame, so that people buy it regardless of the price of gas. The Bolt and Leaf 2 clearly don't come close to the promise of the 3. After the Model S, the X, Paypal, Space X, Hyperloop, etc., I think Elon can pull of the Model 3 as well....
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Because Tesla doesn't make EVs like Nissan and GM (compliance cars that cost far more than an equivalent ICE). Tesla makes incredible cars that happen to be electric, and blow the doors off similarly priced ICE vehicles. The Model S is the best sedan for the price. The Model X will be an even better SUV, with literally nothing on the planet coming close in terms of performance, low center of gravity and handling, driver tech, etc. The Model 3 is supposed to put the BMW 3 series to shame, so that people buy it regardless of the price of gas. The Bolt and Leaf 2 clearly don't come close to the promise of the 3. After the Model S, the X, Paypal, Space X, Hyperloop, etc., I think Elon can pull of the Model 3 as well....
They have had a model(s) for Awhile and they will show one to the public in march.
CHG-ON
Still in love after all these miles
No. Not at all. It takes a strong stomach to ride the Tesla wave. I've been doing it since 2010. It's done great. Also bought in 1-15. Not so great. But cost/avg is very good. I have complete confidence that this is the next Microsoft, Google Apple. It needs to be and they have the vision more than anybody else.
I am worried. Not about the company, of course, but about how irrational the markets have been and continue to be. Tesla has dropped 30% on approximately zero news in a month. That is insane.
As far as I can tell, the shorts have no compelling arguments, so I have to trust in reason and keep buying.
As far as I can tell, the shorts have no compelling arguments, so I have to trust in reason and keep buying.
deonb
Active Member
You can't compare that.
If Tesla grows to 10 times its current production it's still a nobody in the auto industry.
If it grows to 100 times it won't break into the top 5.
Even at 1000 times its size it's still not a monopoly.
It Apple grows to even 3 times it's size it needs to find a new planet to sell products on.
Gerardf
Active Member
Agree. It is not nice to see the current SP so much lower, but to many positives just around the corner. Have just freed up some cash and plan to increase my shares.
Adm
Active Member
Something I miss in the discussion is a comparison with other auto stocks. Over the past 12 months TSLA performs about the same as GM and much better than F. The insanity was the spike at $282, dropping to $170 is just a healthy correction. Tesla still has a lot to prove for this stock to go up and forward again. We, the kool aid drinkers, may believe it should, but outsiders rightfully are more conservative.
I don't see why TSLA should at all track the other auto companies. Tesla is supply limited probably through 2017, even if the Model 3 doesn't materialize. And if the Model 3 starts selling in 2017, they'll probably be supply limited through 2020.
General market trends really don't matter to the company, beyond what dilution they have to accept in financing rounds.
General market trends really don't matter to the company, beyond what dilution they have to accept in financing rounds.
Adm
Active Member
You are right, it shouldn't and yet it does. Rationality and stock prices are not a good combo.
Uh, the X is well on its way in terms of production. The S is very strong, beating the S class and other high end cars' numbers combined. The X has way more demand than Tesla can supply. Production is ramping and there is no indication of slowing down production, only increasing. All of the reviews are raving despite any flaws that have come up. The owners who have had flaws are universally saying they love their vehicle and are happy with them despite issues that have come. We also have no idea how extensive the flaws are, just that they are generally expected to be more given initial production. Model S quality and fit and finish have steadily improved. My S's comfort, fit and finish are superior to the venerable Mercedes E class. So what if the S class has more luxury features and options- the S has better performance for a lower cost. The luxury will improve in time regardless.
Model 3 is getting revealed in March. Gigafactory in some respects is further along than anticipated. There are rumors of a new Powerwall iteration. Powerwall demand exceeds supply and now Tesla is starting to deliver on Powerwall. As far as Tesla is making it, there is no reason to worry. As far as meeting Wall Street expectations, I suppose one may worry. So what if Tesla is producing 250k cars in 2020 instead of 500k. The automakers are struggling to stay out of complacency, and Tesla has really exposed significant vulnerabilities that they are trying to address.
Model 3 is getting revealed in March. Gigafactory in some respects is further along than anticipated. There are rumors of a new Powerwall iteration. Powerwall demand exceeds supply and now Tesla is starting to deliver on Powerwall. As far as Tesla is making it, there is no reason to worry. As far as meeting Wall Street expectations, I suppose one may worry. So what if Tesla is producing 250k cars in 2020 instead of 500k. The automakers are struggling to stay out of complacency, and Tesla has really exposed significant vulnerabilities that they are trying to address.
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So you have never seen an X in real life and are basing your opinion from photos? That is absurd. I have seen a very early production X up close for an extended period of time, inside and out. I found no flaws. None.
You can pass judgement on the quality of the X when you have actually seen one.
Concerned?
I was concerned a few months ago when Tesla pulled a bait-and-switch on Ranger services. The fundamentals have not changed since then, only the price has. I would not criticize anyone who decided to sell (for sane reasons); there's a strong bear case based on communications problems. I would not criticize anyone who decided to buy (for sane reasons); there's a strong bull case based on having no serious competition in most of their market segments.
You have to balance these factors for yourself, and the price change should not change your assessment. You should have a "buy" price and a "sell" price based on your assessment of fundamentals.
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I strongly suspect that Tesla is actually pretty far along. The plan was always to start Model 3 design once the Model S was shipping, and I really assume that Model 3 development started while Model X was being developed. The paint shop was designed for it, the new component factory appears to be intended for it, the redesign of the production lines seems to be preparing for it, the Gigafactory is getting ready for it... you don't do that without being a large portion of the way through design.
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I was concerned a few months ago when Tesla pulled a bait-and-switch on Ranger services. The fundamentals have not changed since then, only the price has. I would not criticize anyone who decided to sell (for sane reasons); there's a strong bear case based on communications problems. I would not criticize anyone who decided to buy (for sane reasons); there's a strong bull case based on having no serious competition in most of their market segments.
You have to balance these factors for yourself, and the price change should not change your assessment. You should have a "buy" price and a "sell" price based on your assessment of fundamentals.
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The first reveal of the Model S didn't have an interior. The interior was slapped together *very* late, less than a year before delivery IIRC. If something similar is going on, that would certainly account for the incomplete reveal.
I strongly suspect that Tesla is actually pretty far along. The plan was always to start Model 3 design once the Model S was shipping, and I really assume that Model 3 development started while Model X was being developed. The paint shop was designed for it, the new component factory appears to be intended for it, the redesign of the production lines seems to be preparing for it, the Gigafactory is getting ready for it... you don't do that without being a large portion of the way through design.
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Yeah, isn't that interesting? I think Tesla is honestly being more secretive than they were with the Model S. I also think this is probably a bad idea, but I can think of some reasons for it (maybe Tesla is expecting to change the available options and wants to do that *before* releasing the design studio to the public... the repeated option availability changes on Model S irritated people).
ludicrousspeed
Member
As a super bullish long-term (10+years) investor in Tesla, I thought now would be a good time to map out where I think the company should be in the next 5-6 years. I think this is the perfect time to do this because I'm able to make much more conservative projections with the sentiment turning the way it has. Anybody who is seriously worried about the recent and unjustified cliff that the stock seems to have fallen off of should analyze this and see if they think it is realistic.
I attached a model that projects out just GAAP REVENUES through 2021 (did not include costs because I think that is significantly harder to predict accurately.) In the grey are my assumptions.. I just want to note that I strongly believe Tesla will eventually sell 500K vehicles per year, however, I think it will come after the year 2020. I've studied Musk for a while and have full confidence in his predictions, just not necessarily the timing of these predictions. Same goes with M3.. I think they may meet the 2017 deadline but will not delivery significant volume by then, so I assumed the first impact will be felt in 2018. The Tesla Energy GWH sold each year is a super rough estimate, but is based on exponential growth leading up to 35 GWH of energy storage that Tesla should get out of the GF by 2020. The energy revenues are based on a conversion rate of 1 KWH = 1M GWH, $250/kwh for the powerpack, and $350/kwh for the powerwall. 10% of annual revenues for each of those two products is then deducted to be even more conservative.
All in all, Tesla will probably not make huge profits over this time period but will begin to show their earnings potential through massive revenue growth and market penetration (just look at AMZN - $250B market cap without any real earnings, just potential based on growth.) This is a very conservative model in my opinion and ignores any other potential revenue sources like car servicing, ride sharing, mapping software, partnerships, etc. I then predict that the following 5 years after this will experience very similar growth (mainly through energy storage - Elon thinks it will bring in 2x auto revenue long term), something that the market simply cannot factor into valuations at this point. Growing the energy storage business rapidly and possibly pulling in revenue from streams that we can't currently think of should realize over $200B in revenues by around 2025. So to answer your question.. no I'm not worried.
I attached a model that projects out just GAAP REVENUES through 2021 (did not include costs because I think that is significantly harder to predict accurately.) In the grey are my assumptions.. I just want to note that I strongly believe Tesla will eventually sell 500K vehicles per year, however, I think it will come after the year 2020. I've studied Musk for a while and have full confidence in his predictions, just not necessarily the timing of these predictions. Same goes with M3.. I think they may meet the 2017 deadline but will not delivery significant volume by then, so I assumed the first impact will be felt in 2018. The Tesla Energy GWH sold each year is a super rough estimate, but is based on exponential growth leading up to 35 GWH of energy storage that Tesla should get out of the GF by 2020. The energy revenues are based on a conversion rate of 1 KWH = 1M GWH, $250/kwh for the powerpack, and $350/kwh for the powerwall. 10% of annual revenues for each of those two products is then deducted to be even more conservative.
All in all, Tesla will probably not make huge profits over this time period but will begin to show their earnings potential through massive revenue growth and market penetration (just look at AMZN - $250B market cap without any real earnings, just potential based on growth.) This is a very conservative model in my opinion and ignores any other potential revenue sources like car servicing, ride sharing, mapping software, partnerships, etc. I then predict that the following 5 years after this will experience very similar growth (mainly through energy storage - Elon thinks it will bring in 2x auto revenue long term), something that the market simply cannot factor into valuations at this point. Growing the energy storage business rapidly and possibly pulling in revenue from streams that we can't currently think of should realize over $200B in revenues by around 2025. So to answer your question.. no I'm not worried.
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For the long term, not worried in the slightest.
For the short term measured in days or weeks, very worried.
I'm in this for the long term. If I weren't building a new house I would be buying TSLA. I typically buy things when they are on sale
For the short term measured in days or weeks, very worried.
I'm in this for the long term. If I weren't building a new house I would be buying TSLA. I typically buy things when they are on sale
Nice table! I think I would put TE revenue and Model 3 revenue a bit lower and X and S production/revenue higher. I think they will reach 200k for those in total in 2019. One reason to put TE and 3 lower is that the uncertainties are higher witch means a lower probability factor.
as far as finishings (and only finishings) are concerned, you can not assess how good a car is from photos (since obviously small flaws may be not detected from photos) but IMHO it is obvious (mathematically obvious I would say) that you can perfectly assess how bad a car is,since photos tend to mask imperfections so, if you can still see them from photos...
sorry for my english. It is not my language.
Expressing concern over the stock price = FUD agenda? Come on, you aren't that insecure are you? lol
The good news is though, is that one day a lot of analysts are going to wake up and finally realize that TSLA is not just a car company--and that Tesla Energy probably has far more potential than Tesla Motors could ever dream of. I think it'll just take one spectacular ER on Tesla Energy, coupled with some equally impressive forward-thinking Tesla Energy statements.
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