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Are we worried yet about Tesla Stock?

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by luvnMyTS, Feb 3, 2016.

  1. luvnMyTS

    luvnMyTS Member

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    Over $100 drop in price per share over the past six months. $10 today alone. Seems like more than just a dip in the market. Nearly a 40% drop in 6 months.

    Anyone concerned yet?
     
  2. Max*

    Max* Autopilot != Autonomous

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    I'm waiting for it to drop further, so I could buy more shares :D
     
  3. IFlyPlanes

    IFlyPlanes Member

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    It's not a short term stock. My coworkers and I invest a lot and many of them doubled down this week.

    I'm staying for the long haul. I see big things happening and when they open it up to bigger markets with the Model 3 or potentially sell batteries to competitors, you'll probably wish you bought now.
     
  4. P85DEE

    P85DEE Active Member

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    #4 P85DEE, Feb 3, 2016
    Last edited: Feb 3, 2016

    Very much so. I've lost a lot of money just today alone......Actually, I'm losing my ass over these last few weeks.
     
  5. AmpedRealtor

    AmpedRealtor Active Member

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    Yes, I am very, very concerned. I don't drink the Koolaid. I should have sold when I had the chance, but now I'm locked in until it goes back up in a hope to break even.

    Tesla's 52 week low did not occur in a vacuum. The perception is out there that Tesla is executing poorly and Tesla has not done anything to change that perception. When you have a communications vacuum, something has to fill that space. So here we are. Who is responsible for Tesla's execution, anyone?
     
  6. P85DEE

    P85DEE Active Member

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    I was just this morning debating to stay in and waiting for it to go back up.

    Long story short, I sold about half of my shares today.

    When it hit a new 52week low a day or two ago, I held tight.

    But now........ I'm debating selling the rest and absorbing the loss.

    Damn if I haven't lost 30% in just a short time.
     
  7. techmaven

    techmaven Active Member

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  8. roblab

    roblab Active Member

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    TSLA thankfully is not Tesla. Why should Tesla do anything to change the "perception" for a bunch of gamblers? The stock market is a huge gamble, with several ways to manipulate the "perceptions" of the buyers and sellers.

    It seems very common to have someone with a lot of bets down that TSLA will lose money, and then to have a hit piece appear saying things like "Tesla is going to fail", and then all the dummies try to sell off before they lose the house. Or a large sell will happen below the market price and the sheep will follow.

    Tesla is not executing badly. The people who develop fear, uncertainty and doubt are happy if they can get your perceptions to drop so they can make a bundle. The stock market is all about people's perceptions, very seldom about Tesla. Tesla is doing well, on several fronts. If a FUDster can get you to believe they are not, they take your money.

    Every now and then I read of somebody doing well selling TSLA at a profit, and it always makes me feel sorry for all the other "investors" (meaning gamblers) doing poorly. I wish the short investors would be outlawed or heavily taxed. But like gambling, it gets to be a disease, with "investors" running off to the casino thinking that this time, surely, you're going to win.

    If you're long, all this means absolutely nothing. I lose nothing, unless I sell. And I ain't gonna sell until I get a decent profit -- heck, I'm already getting over a thousand percent if I were to sell today.

    Stay long. Don't be stupid.
     
  9. sorka

    sorka Active Member

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    I will stop worrying once it drops to a reasonable valuation. It has a long way to go still.
     
  10. Skotty

    Skotty 2014 Model S P85

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    I predict it will jump right back up, it's just a matter of time. Many big firsts still to come relating to the gigafactory, powerwall and powerpack, model 3, etc, that can send the stock skyward. There's always a chance of falling into ruin, but Tesla looks pretty solid right now and has so for some time; they would have a long way to fall before it would be unrecoverable.
     
  11. dakh

    dakh Member

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    The only real worry is that we have no clue why the price action has been this way. Or, I should say I have no clue. But then again, it's pretty much expected. Short term valuation can deviate from the fundamentals quite a bit.
     
  12. adiggs

    adiggs Active Member

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    Without being as strong on the 'gambling' front as Roblab, my end result is the same. Namely, I haven't lost anything and won't lose anything until I sell. And I haven't seen anything in the last month or two that tells me my investment thesis has changed in the company.

    If anything, the low price of oil and corresponding low prices of gas that has some freaking out, looks to me like a potential source of competitive advantage for Tesla and TSLA. To be specific - if Tesla demand and production continues strong in spite of low gas prices, while other EV makes find that their rate of adoption slows, then it tells me they aren't yet creating a competitive product while Tesla is. The competitive advantage comes from the delay in when those organizations go more seriously into EVs and shift to make them their livelihood. It's that much more time where Tesla is growing, building more and more vehicles, and doing so with less and less competition. Or at least, that's one direction that low gas prices could go :) And that's new.


    I am indifferent to quarterly delivery numbers and extremely interested in quarterly production numbers. Whether a produced car is delivered this quarter or next is a matter of indifference to me, though I realize the stock price can gyrate crazily in response. With a long term perspective (2025+ right now), it just doesn't matter.

    I would like to see some free cash flow, but only because the massive capital build that's coming up doesn't scale well unless the stuff being sold can pay for most or all of the capital build. Though I'd like to see some free cash flow, I don't want to see too much - I want to see massive investment into that capital build, and corresponding big increases in capacity to build packs and cars.


    End result is that the only thing the current stock price has me wondering about, is whether to add to my current position. This looks to me like the market is being irrational about the price of oil. It may be a few months, and it may take a few years, but at some point, Mr. Market will realize that low oil and energy prices are good for everybody and every segment that isn't in the business producing and providing energy. And then I expect the whole market to negatively correlate with the price of energy, and TSLA to rise strongly with the broader market.
     
  13. luvnMyTS

    luvnMyTS Member

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    Tesla continues to disappoint. It originally promised 55,000 cars for 2015. Then reduced it to around 52,000, then still fell short of that with just 50,500 cars sold. The Model X being delayed and delayed and delayed and then once finally released, only delivered 208 Model X's in 2015. 3 months and only 208 cars delivered, not good. Then, the news this week that the previously promised reveal of the Model 3 will now only be a photo of PART OF THE CAR. That's a clear indication that they are nowhere near as far along as they thought they were. If they don't have a concept vehicle done yet, there's no way in hell that they're going to production on the car by 2017. For big car makers it's at least two years from concept to production. For Tesla, based on their own history, it's a minimum of three years. Understandable, being that they're a smaller company, but the Model 3 news was disappointing news again out of Tesla. I love the cars, but the company still has a ton of growing pains. We'll be lucky if the Model 3 is in production by 2019. Tesla needs do so something big to show people that it's capable of being more than a niche car company. People were previously betting that they were more than that, but with the Model X and Model 3 news, people simply have lost confidence. I certainly hope they prove all the naysayers wrong. I love this company and their product. With my money tied up in their stock as well, I certainly want to see them succeed big. But something has to change to turn the tide.
     
  14. eloder

    eloder Member

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    Yes, being one of the #1 selling luxury models in the US and European markets sure is disappointing.

    Anyways, TSLA has gone through such severe and rapid drops for no good reason at all before, and it will continue to do so in the future. This one just happens to have a good amount of macro in it, pushing it further down. Don't invest if you can't stomach it; TSLA has been very rewarding to me and I didn't start my first investments until the stock was in the 170s range.
     
  15. Fallenone

    Fallenone Active Member

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    Seriously, people are believing this "news" of only pictures of Model 3 for this March? Wake up please.

     
  16. rdalcanto

    rdalcanto Member

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    +1. They will show an entire car. They just won't reveal all the incredible tech it will have 2 years from now. The Bolt will look like it was made in the stone age by comparison. The Model 3 will be on time. Market pressure from the Bolt and others will make sure of that, even though the Model 3 will be so superior that the competitors will look foolish.
     
  17. EV_Future

    EV_Future Banned

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    I want to believe you, because the more electric car options the better. But how do you know Model 3 will be so good? Have they already disclosed the technical details or design? I was searching for pictures but there appears to be so many ideas online. Will Tesla have a model soon?
     
  18. dmckinstry

    dmckinstry Model S - U.S. P - #1649

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    Well, I've lost over $70k since Dec. 31st, and compared to many here I'm a small time player. But all my TSLA is in stock, and the loss is only on paper unless I sell. I'm not worried so much as discouraged. It has to drop below $70/share before my holdings will be less than I originally invested. In the mean time I've taken out enough to pay for the Model S I purchased in mid-2013.

    Your degree of worry, etc. largely depends on when you started to buy TSLA.
     
  19. Magus

    Magus Member

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    I can't believe how much faith people put in stock market valuations and betting. 51-52K of 55K is still solid. The S is outclassing the previous alpha car, the Mercedes S class. Even the oil prices are due to human interventions, OPEC/Saudi Arabia dumping supply into the market to gut shale oil and American production. Low oil prices and dumping like this is not sustainable. The stock market is fickle. No need to worry about Tesla.
     
  20. luvnMyTS

    luvnMyTS Member

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    Just read an article saying based on earnings, the Tesla stock is more than 90% of what it should be compared with other Tech companies. They mentioned that based on their earnings ratio compared with apple, the stock should be around $17 per share. Based on the S&P 500, it should be around $9 per share. Clearly Tesla stock increased at an extremely rapid rate from $20 to $280 in what, a year, year and a half. It is considered a risky stock and people have been willing to gamble. Myself included.

    And I should have known better with my words. of course people would find a way to take it out of context. This is a message board after all. When I said Tesla continues to disappoint, I wasn't at all referring to its product or company practices. I was referring to its financials. It continues to disappoint in the eyes of wall street. Clearly it has an amazing product. But it is a small company that can only build, design and produce so fast. Wall Streets wants them to go faster and they just are not yet capable of that. Customers want them to go faster too. I'm betting 200,000 reservations within the first week for the Model 3 once reservations are available to be made. The question will be, how long will it take for Tesla to fulfill those first 200,000 orders?? It's gonna be a while. Going to say 2022 before the Model 3 is like the Model S, where you can go online and place your order and have your car in 2-3 months. Look at the Model X, they still don't have a design studio for that car, at least not for those that didn't place an advance deposit on the car.

    Tesla's stock is so out of whack with typical Wall Street stocks, so it's basically impossible to know what it's going to do. Will it get back to $280 again? What does GM, FORD, BMW, Mercedes, trade at? I think it was either Chase or Morgan Stanley that put the future number of the stock around $90. Now that it's dropped as much as it has, people are going to be more scared of it and less willing to gamble. I don't see it making it back up to that level. Just my two cents. Again, amazing company. I'm only referring to Wall Street in this conversation. Not saying one bad thing about Tesla itself. This was created by the consumers/investors willing to bet big on Tesla. For those that got in early, they're still way ahead and the gamble paid off. For those that sold above $250, they won huge. For those that bought above $200, don't know what to tell you. I don't think anybody knows for sure.
     

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