Articles re Tesla—Fact or Fiction?

[neroden]

If you think about it, there's basically one major bear case to be made, which is "electric cars won't take over, people will keep driving gasoline cars", and that's the one which most of the total fools who are permabears are making. We know that's false; we know that electric cars are superior and will take over. But they are absolutely certain in their false belief that electric cars won't take over, and if they were right about that, then Tesla would indeed not do well.

I've been trying to simply filter out and ignore that group of people, because their bear argument is based on that one fundamental mistake and you can't even discuss it with them. It's harder to find a Tesla long-term bear with an argument which I can actually discuss (like "BYD will eat Tesla's lunch" or "The major carmakers will bother to build a Tesla-killer") and even harder to find one with an argument which has solid evidence for it.

 

[wdolson]

The bears are pretty much right if they are just looking at what mainstream car makers are putting out there. The only market for those cars are eco drivers, or people who get some other incentive out of driving one (like HOV lane access with only one person in the car). Nobody else wants them because they are heavily compromised cars that are only good for a very narrow range of uses.

Tesla makes an entirely different class of car that is the only electric car out there that is actually superior to many ICE cars in a number of areas. There are a lot of people who would buy a Tesla, but no other BEV.

As longer range BEVs become available, that picture shifts a bit, but those new BEVs are still going to be compromised vehicles with limited use. It's highly likely the intercity charging infrastructure is going to lag behind the introduction of longer range cars by a couple of years.

I also think there is some predictive schadenfreude going on with the Tesla bears who predict someone is going to come along and kill them. Sort of satisfaction that Tesla's guts to challenge the industry didn't pay off in the end (if that plays out).

At this point there is nobody on the horizon who can drive Tesla out of the market by introducing a new car. First they would have to introduce something better than Tesla has so far, which would be very tough. And they would have to do it in numbers at least as large as Tesla is producing. About the only technology that someone could introduce that would send people running to an alternative would be a vastly denser energy battery that another car maker had and Tesla didn't. That scenario is so unlikely as to fall into fantasy scenarios.

The only scenarios that would kill Tesla now are not directly related to their competition at all. Tesla could shoot itself in the foot and destroy their following. They are trying to scale up at a massive rate and I give them about an 80% chance of pulling it off mostly because they have proven to be quick learners. But mistakes can happen that could kill the company.

The other scenario that could kill Tesla would likely take out one or more of their competitors. If the world economy crashes again like 2008 Tesla could be dragged under, but some other car makers might be taken out too.

 

[PeterK]

Several articles today about a report by Devonshire Research, an acknowledged short. I actually went to their site to get the report pdf. What a joke.

They just don't get the idea that there might be a company that invests beyond the next quarter, and make Tesla out to be some kind of multifaceted financial fraud/Ponzi scheme, and charge that the Model 3 deposit taking is acting as an unregistered broker dealer. The names Enron, Worldcom and Madoff are sprinkled throughout. They even seriously propose that Tesla be taken over by the government or become a nonprofit or religious institution!

Hard to believe news organizations actually reported on this, but at least both referred to short seller in the titles/articles.

Tesla Short Seller Issues Scathing Warning Of Pending ‘Death Spiral’

Tesla Motors: 11 Reasons to Sell Now

http://www.devonshireresearch.com/research/Devonshire Research Group - Tesla Motors - TSLA - Public Release - Part II.pdf

 

[GoTslaGo]

Wow, hard to believe anyone can take these guys seriously.

First, avowed short, with a declared stake (page 3).

Second, to list the Illuminati and Marshall Mathers, aka "Enimem" among notice of non-Affiliation (page 4).

Sorry couldn't read beyond that.

To think that any reputable news organization (BARRON'S, link 2) would even use this source for any of their articles casts serious doubt about that said news organization. It would be more appropriate that they should be reporting on Massless Energy Charger instead.

Glad I cancelled my subscription to Barron's years ago.

 

[Gerardf]

Last line in that document :
"please contact Devonshire Research Group, LLC at [email protected]"

Eeeh.. Serious ?? Someone named "Surfhacker" ?? SURFHACKER .??? And that is supposed to be investment advise ?? Anybody who refers to that document as a serious resource can never been taken serious anymore.

I also noticed they mention fukata prominently and repeatedly as a key partner for the induction motor (implying the driveline). I think there is only one person who seriously believes that is the case.

 

[Drax7]

I gave up on Barron's after the 2008 story telling me why the Apple iPhone would be
A failure written by mike viveka . Never made a penny reading that publication
Over the course of 20 plus years.

 

[wdolson]

To think that any reputable news organization (BARRON'S, link 2) would even use this source for any of their articles casts serious doubt about that said news organization. It would be more appropriate that they should be reporting on Massless Energy Charger instead.

Glad I cancelled my subscription to Barron's years ago.

I think both Barron's and the WSJ went downhill after News Corp bought Dow Jones & Co.

 

[Drax7]

Most financial reporting is pretty bad, just look at the press Tesla gets, before that it was apple
In my experience.

 

[PeterK]

Last line in that document :
"please contact Devonshire Research Group, LLC at [email protected]"

Eeeh.. Serious ?? Someone named "Surfhacker" ?? SURFHACKER .??? And that is supposed to be investment advise ?? Anybody who refers to that document as a serious resource can never been taken serious anymore.

I also noticed they mention fukata prominently and repeatedly as a key partner for the induction motor (implying the driveline). I think there is only one person who seriously believes that is the case.

I noticed that too. Didn't our Fukuta-focused friend say he was a financial analyst? I think I know who Devonshire is..

 

[PeterK]

More discussion of current and previous Devonshire "reports" here:

Devonshire Research Short Tesla Motors Inc

 

[ecarfan]

The Devonshire article at Tesla Motors Inc: Analyst Delivers Reality Check to Tesla Stock Investors is laughably bad and full of errors. A few examples:

"Tesla will be late with its Model 3 deliveries, which are currently scheduled for July 2017. "

Wrong. Elon said production will start in late 2017. He has never given a month.

"Tesla unveiled the Model 3 on March 31 to be sold at an advertised $35,000, once government subsidies are deducted."

Wrong again. The base $35,000 price is BEFORE any government incentives. Tesla has been crystal clear about that.

" Production is supposed to start in 2016 for first deliveries in 2017."

Wrong again, and contradicts what the article said earlier! Incredible.

"Devonshire predicts that problems with suppliers—especially battery maker Panasonic—will develop in view of the unrealistically low price advertised for the Tesla “Model 3".

Panasonic has invested a lot of money in the Gigafactory, which is making batteries right now. So apparently Panasonic has no problem with Tesla.

What an absurd article.

 

[CButterK]

Faraday Future Eyes Land In California For Site #2

Anyone have any constructive input on why FF will need a 2nd factory in Nor Cal, considering they just barely broke ground in Las Vegas?

 

[Avenger]

More discussion of current and previous Devonshire "reports" here:

Devonshire Research Short Tesla Motors Inc

I have no connection to Devonshire - clearly lots of folks are aware that Fukuta manufacturers significant % of the drive train.

Can some one tell me if Tesla Motors manufacturers the inverter for the drive motor or can some one name the supplier?

I'm not alone read http://www.walshcarlines.com/pdf/nsl20143.pdf - search document for Fukuta

 

[wdolson]

Faraday Future Eyes Land In California For Site #2

Anyone have any constructive input on why FF will need a 2nd factory in Nor Cal, considering they just barely broke ground in Las Vegas?

I doubt the second location is for final assembly. It might be for parts assembly, or some other purpose. Tesla has several facilities: The factory in Fremont, the main offices in Palo Alto, the design center in Los Angeles, the Gigafactory, and a parts factory in Michigan.

 

[trils0n]

I doubt the second location is for final assembly. It might be for parts assembly, or some other purpose. Tesla has several facilities: The factory in Fremont, the main offices in Palo Alto, the design center in Los Angeles, the Gigafactory, and a parts factory in Michigan.

Plus a foundry / casting and parts facility in Lathrop. (Casting / foundry stuff used to be done at Fremont, but they have been moving things out of Fremont for years in prep for Model 3). Who knows what FF's plans are, and what type of facilities they will need. A lot will be determined by how vertically integrated they want to be.

 

[ecarfan]

I have no connection to Devonshire - clearly lots of folks are aware that Fukuta manufacturers significant % of the drive train

Clearly no one at TMC agrees with you. That is obvious. See Fukuta supply role to Tesla

 

[Krugerrand]

Plus a foundry / casting and parts facility in Lathrop.

Plus a Union Hall, plus Page St. for building seats.

 

[Gerardf]

Just when you thought SA articles could not possibly get of even lower "quality"

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3978192-tesla-anyone-party-elon-musk

 

[Johan]

Just when you thought SA articles could not possibly get of even lower "quality"

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3978192-tesla-anyone-party-elon-musk

A new definitive low.

Premise of article: Musk has said he threw parties as a student, with lots of attendees and made some money off these parties with his roomates. Authoer of SA article doesn't belive this to be true, or at least to the scale that has been reported, thanks to anecdotal data, then makes a connection to Tesla the company and their ability to raise capital in the future and to reduce cost.

Your logical fallacy is false cause

 

[PeterK]

A new definitive low.

Premise of article: Musk has said he threw parties as a student, with lots of attendees and made some money off these parties with his roomates. Authoer of SA article doesn't belive this to be true, or at least to the scale that has been reported, thanks to anecdotal data, then makes a connection to Tesla the company and their ability to raise capital in the future and to reduce cost.

Your logical fallacy is false cause

And what's even more absurd is that this is a BIOGRAPHY, not AUTOBIOGRAPHY, written by Ashlee Vance. And the discussion of party-throwing and comments about how many people attended quotes Musk's roommate, not Musk.